The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

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Voltage
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The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Voltage »

The Djibouti process was built on two pillars:

1. Abdullahi Yusuf is not an Islamist so the Islamists would never support negotiations especially with the fact he was a known Ethiopian partisan.

2. Abdullahi Yusuf was not Hawiye and being one of the most visible previous Darod warlords would in fact bolster the support of the Islamist due to Hawiye clan in Mogadishu either being neutral or actively fighting against him, thereby being on the side of the Islamists.

Three men came up with these points: Ould Abdalla, Nuur Adde, Ahmed Abdisalaam.

Two things were achieved.

A Hawiye Islamist was elected with a system that was heavily biased towards him (200 new parliamentarians chosen just with the aim to have him elected without surprised on election day). It was naturally assumed him being Hawiye Islamist would result in two things:

1. Bring Hawiye civil society and clan militias on board, thereby bringing Mogadishu nominally under his control currying large support from the population there.
2. Bring the Islamists on board and at the least agree to peaceful negotiations with him a fellow ICU Islamist.

The assumptions have failed and the true dynamics have played themselves out.

Clan assumption results:

1. Clans have no more power in the dynamics of southern Somalia where a multi-clan and multi-national entity can run over any clan militia in hours as they have done in the first days of fighting in Mogadishu.
2. The Hawiye clan has no more special favors and influences in Mogadishu than the Darod or other clans in this new phenomenon of Somali politics.

Islamist assumption results:

3. The Islamist do not want peace and do not want negotiations. These are international outlaws and people who are on the wanted list of many countries. Therefore they are people saving their own back and have no interest in peace or the welfare of larger society.
4. A strong military leader must be given the top post to crush the international outlaws.

As of now, we consider the Djibouti process a flop.
Last edited by Voltage on Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Twisted_Logic »

The undeniable truth is that the clan has died in Mogadishu. It explains why Sharif's leading opponents are members of his own sub-sub-sub clan.

Something is happening. A consensus is developing. It can only be good.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Voltage »

Elaborate Twisted.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by FAH1223 »

yeah but in somalia there is never a group that can take over the whole country
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Twisted_Logic »

Voltage wrote:Elaborate Twisted.
What I mean is people are following a very narrow opportunistic personal goals instead of bandwagoning on something as ambiguous as the clan. The business-leaders in Mogadishu from every clan are following their own agendas, same thing with the religious-warlords. Very few people are following either camp based on clan. Col Ali Said, Shiekh Cagaweyne, Sh Abdul Qadir Ali Omar's chief of staff ( can't remember his name), and 2 other HG commanders died defending Sharif. Meanwhile, Kobo Kududke, Moalin Hashi, Hassan Wiif, Haji Abukar Omar Adaan and Ahmed Laashin are Mudulood and men leading the assault in Xamar. 19 years of war and anarchy means that the traditional role of the clan-elders has been outsourced to warlords and others. Hence, the traditional powers of the clan-elders have been weakened. This has made it easy for anarchy and disorganization at the clan-level to develop.

Any-one who blames clan on what is happening in Xamar is deluded.

As for the consensus developing; people are beginning to realize the fraudulent/criminal foundations of Al Shabab and in the long-term, they won't be able to hide behind religion.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Twisted_Logic »

FAH1223 wrote:yeah but in somalia there is never a group that can take over the whole country
Give it time.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Somalian_Boqor »

The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.
Don't tell me you just figuare this out?

The thing about Politics is to let it play itself out. But the likes of Ould Abdalla, Nuur Adde, Ahmed Abdisalaam thought they found the formula for peace in Somalia. They silenced the Majority and under took a very destructive path that Literally has taken the Political process back five years.

Today the so called President doesn't even have his sub-sub-sub clan on board.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Twisted_Logic »

Somalian_Boqor wrote:
The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.
Don't tell me you just figuare this out?

The thing about Politics is to let it play itself out. But the likes of Ould Abdalla, Nuur Adde, Ahmed Abdisalaam thought they found the formula for peace in Somalia. They silenced the Majority and under took a very destructive path that Literally has taken the Political process back five years.

Today the so called President doesn't even have his sub-sub-sub clan on board.
Who are the majority? Supporters of the quislings? Ninyahow, stop your endless AY moaning. The man is a refugee in Yemen. GET OVER IT :arrow:
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Voltage »

Twisted_Logic wrote:Any-one who blames clan on what is happening in Xamar is deluded.
That is exactly the conclusion my observation up there reached.

1. Clan is inconsequential and the influence is dead.
2. The Islamists do not want peace and will never sit down for negotiations.

^Why the Djibouti process is failure because it was built on the assumption a Hawiye Islamist is what Mogadishu needed.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by nomadicwarlord »

Clan elders are a joke in Mogadishu, I only hear them open their mouth only when AMISOM fire back at the insurgents. You don't see them condemn Al-Shabaab and other imbecile Islamists in public. Somali politics is full of hypocrites today. :down:
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Twisted_Logic »

Voltage wrote:
Twisted_Logic wrote:Any-one who blames clan on what is happening in Xamar is deluded.
That is exactly the conclusion my observation up there reached.

1. Clan is inconsequential and the influence is dead.
2. The Islamists do not want peace and will never sit down for negotiations.

^Why the Djibouti process is failure because it was built on the assumption a Hawiye Islamist is what Mogadishu needed.
There was nothing wrong with the Jabuti deal. The elected president was incompetent. He wasn't suppose to run, he did under some very retarded assumptions and Somalia and specifically the people of Mogadishu are paying for his retardation.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Somalian_Boqor »

Twisted_Logic wrote:
Somalian_Boqor wrote:
The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.
Don't tell me you just figuare this out?

The thing about Politics is to let it play itself out. But the likes of Ould Abdalla, Nuur Adde, Ahmed Abdisalaam thought they found the formula for peace in Somalia. They silenced the Majority and under took a very destructive path that Literally has taken the Political process back five years.

Today the so called President doesn't even have his sub-sub-sub clan on board.
Who are the majority? Supporters of the quislings? Ninyahow, stop your endless AY moaning. The man is a refugee in Yemen. GET OVER IT :arrow:
Abduallhi Yusuf is in retiement living in style, his state of Puntland is doing well. All you are doing is being angry, and irrelevent. Yusuf today is a vidicated man thanks to the likes of Ould Abdalla, Nuur Adde, Ahmed Abdisalaam.

The Majority are the peace loving Somalis across the world, who disagreed with Ould Abdalla, Nuur Adde, Ahmed Abdisalaam.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Twisted_Logic »

Somalian-Boqor,

Abdullahi Yusuf can't enter Puntland. There is a written rule against that. He was given a choice to go to either Yemen or Uganda. He chose Yemen. That's his home till eternity come.

Life with it.

Where we sayin....?
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Voltage »

Twisted, one man is nothing when there is no system. There is a fundamental problem with the system. In an established country with government and a system, one can blame the president and how he uses and manages the system to do what he wants. When you come with no army, no government, in a lawless society of extreme anarchy for 20 years, the problem is the system not the individual man. Even with the title of president, what more powers does Yusuf, Qaasim, Sharif have? For goodnessake, Ugandan soldiers guard his room at night..

The Djibouti process is a failure because they did not realize the problem is the system.
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Re: The Peace Process is sham, Djibouti process failure.

Post by Somalian_Boqor »

Twisted_Logic wrote:
Voltage wrote:
Twisted_Logic wrote:Any-one who blames clan on what is happening in Xamar is deluded.
That is exactly the conclusion my observation up there reached.

1. Clan is inconsequential and the influence is dead.
2. The Islamists do not want peace and will never sit down for negotiations.

^Why the Djibouti process is failure because it was built on the assumption a Hawiye Islamist is what Mogadishu needed.
There was nothing wrong with the Jabuti deal. The elected president was incompetent. He wasn't suppose to run, he did under some very retarded assumptions and Somalia and specifically the people of Mogadishu are paying for his retardation.
Somalis would have never elected Shiek Sharif in a Real election. The guy was put in Power and those we are disappointed are those who actually expected real results from this reer baadiye who doesn't know a thing about Politics.
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