With friends like the US, Pakistan doesn't need enemies

[ModerateMuslim]

Washington's clumsy attempts to strengthen Pakistan's government only serve to stoke a conflict approaching civil war

As the Obama administration dithers over what to do for the best in Afghanistan, neighbouring Pakistan is paying an increasingly heavy price. Like a spate of previous Taliban attacks in recent days, today's mayhem in Lahore underscored fears that the principal consequence of Washington's Afghan paralysis, albeit unintended, is the further destabilisation of the Pakistani state.

Pakistanis might be forgiven for wondering whether, with friends like these in Washington, who needs enemies? The rumbling row over a $7.5bn, five-year US aid package is a case in point. Imperious conditions attached to the bill by a Congress reluctant to send more unaccounted billions "down a rat hole", as Democrat Howard Berman charmingly put it, were condemned as insulting and colonialist in Pakistan.

By linking the cash to tighter civilian control of Pakistan's military, Washington was trying, clumsily, to strengthen Asif Ali Zardari's government. But it achieved the exact opposite. The president was accused of failing to defend the country's sovereignty, much as he has failed to halt escalating American cross-border air raids, and the occasional covert ground incursion, on targets inside Pakistan.

After hurried consultations in Washington, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Pakistan's foreign minister, obtained an "explanatory document" from Congress this week that he said effectively waived some of the bill's more objectionable caveats. But this is unlikely to silence critics who draw on deep anti-American sentiment among the Pakistani public dating back to the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the launch of George Bush's "global war on terror".

"Poll after poll shows Pakistanis increasingly do fear the threat posed by Islamic extremists ... but they believe the US is an even bigger danger to their country," Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution was quoted as saying this week. Many Pakistanis rated the threat posed by the US to their independence and security above that from historical foe India, he said. "Any time you out-poll India as the bad guy in Pakistan you are in deep trouble."

Intense Obama administration pressure on Pakistan to root out the Tehrik-e-Taliban (Taliban Movement of Pakistan), close allies and collaborators of the Afghan Taliban, resulted in this spring's costly military offensive in Swat, in North West Frontier province, which displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Yet the Swat campaign is likely to be dwarfed by an imminent Pakistani army offensive in South Waziristan, in the ungoverned tribal areas adjacent to Afghanistan. Although senior Pakistani officials deny they are doing Washington's bidding, it's no secret that US commanders are increasingly focused on both sides of Afghanistan's eastern border with Pakistan, where Taliban militants and their foreign jihadi and al-Qaida allies have staked out common ground ignoring national boundaries.

Pakistan's Taliban leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, who replaced Baitullah Mehsud after the latter was killed in a US drone missile strike in August, said in a recent video that attacks such as today's in Lahore would quickly cease if the government stopped behaving like a US lackey and broke its American alliance. If that happened, Mehsud said he would turn his guns on India, presumably in Kashmir. To many Pakistanis, that may not sound such a bad idea.

The realisation that Washington is stoking a conflict approaching all-out civil war is gradually dawning in the US. New York Post columnist Ralph Peters drew a comparison with post-invasion Iraq. "Civil war never quite happened [there]. Yet no one seems to notice that we're now caught up in two authentic civil wars – one in Afghanistan, the other in Pakistan," he said. By lumping the two together in one "Afpak" policy, the Obama administration had effectively made both problems worse.

Neither extra US troops, nor extra aid, nor more "hugs-not-slugs counterinsurgency nonsense" was the answer, Peters argued. "The only hope for either beleaguered territory (these really are territories, not authentic states) is a decision by its own population to fight and defeat the Taliban."

The impulse, fanned by this sort of imperial hubris, to get out of Afghanistan, or at least to narrow the fight to a counter-terrorism campaign against al-Qaida, has gathered US adherents in recent months. But a Washington Post editorial argued this week that with al-Qaida much reduced, the Taliban in both countries now constituted the main enemy. Pakistan was moving towards "full-scale war", it said. Pulling back in Afghanistan could have disastrous, possibly fatal consequences there, too.

By this measure and others, only one conclusion is possible: Pakistan is already so destabilised by US actions since 9/11 that it cannot be left to fend for itself. In such tortuous logic is found the death of empires.

[ModerateMuslim]

Taliban strike Pakistan at will

ISLAMABAD: A wave of audacious terror attacks in Pakistan -- three in the country's cultural and political hub of Lahore and one each in the northwestern cities of Peshawar and Kohat -- on Thursday left 39 people dead and several others injured.

The near-simultaneous and coordinated attacks follow a pattern of destabilizing ambushes on Pakistan's security facilities in the run-up to Islamabad's planned offensive in the Taliban stronghold of Waziristan in the tribal northwest.

The Pakistani army, buoyed by its successes against militants in the one-time tourist paradise of Swat, have been pounding Taliban and al-Qaida positions in the lawless area. But the string of attacks after a brief lull following Pakistan Taliban chief Baituallah Mehsud's death in a US drone attack in August has left the force demoralized and is likely to divide opinion on the proposed ground offensive.

The attacks also highlighted the growing links between the Taliban and the Punjabi terrorist outfits. The Taliban who draw recruits mainly from the Pashtun tribes in the northwest are believed to have found allies in Punjabi terrorists who can easily melt into the crowds in areas like Lahore, barely 30km or a 15-minute drive from Amritsar.

Thursday's carnage began in Lahore at 9.15 am, when Taliban terrorists in police uniform stormed the Lahore branch of the Federal Investigation Agency, which deals with immigration and terrorism-related offences. Minutes later, gunmen attacked Manawan police training centre and the elite police training institute at Bedian on the city outskirts, killing at least six people.

A police officer said 10 people, including four officials, were killed and five others injured in the attack on the FIA building.

Lahore police chief Pervez Rathore said the siege at FIA building dragged on for two hours. ``The attackers were wearing suicide-bomb vests,'' he said.

Five gunmen raided Manawan police training school Lahore, he added, sparking a gunbattle which left six police officers and all assailants dead. ``Three gunmen wearing suicide jackets blew themselves up on Manawan campus,'' the officer said.

Manawan police training academy on the outskirts of Lahore, just a few kilometres from the Wagah border, was attacked in March. The eight-hour Mumbai 26/11 type attack had left 12 people dead.

A third group of terrorists attacked the elite police commando training centre near Lahore airport. The fighting that lasted more than four hours left five gunmen and one police officer dead. The US has trained Pakistani instructors from the centre in the past.

TV footage showed helicopters in the air over one of the police facilities and paramilitary forces with rifles and bulletproof vests taking cover behind trees outside the compound's wall.

In the Taliban-riddled northwest, a suicide bomber blew an explosives-laden vehicle outside a police station, killing at least 11 people and injuring 16. ``The explosion was so powerful that the police station collapsed. Police later recovered mangled bodies from the rubble,'' said an eyewitness. Later in the day, a car bomb was detonated in a Peshawar residential colony, killing at least one child and injured 12 others, officials said.

More than 140 people have been killed in Pakistan during the last two weeks. The recent wave of attacks began with an October 5 strike on the UN food agency in Islamabad.

President Asif Ali Zardari said the carnage over the past two weeks wouldn't deter the government from ``its mission to eliminate the extremists''.

Interior minister Rehman Malik said the enemy has started guerrilla attacks. ``The nation should be united against these terrorists; we'll defeat them.'' He said the interior ministry had inputs on possible attacks on the buildings of law enforcement agencies.

The assaults highlight the Taliban's ability to carry out sophisticated strikes on heavily fortified facilities and exposes the failure of the intelligence agencies to infiltrate extremist ranks. Analysts say Pakistan needs to penetrate more militant groups and intercept conversations to prevent attacks.

[ModerateMuslim]

Analysis: Pakistani Taleban more dangerous than ever

A wave of Pakistani Taleban attacks over the last 11 days shows that the militant network is more dangerous than ever, despite the death of its charismatic leader in August and the apparent success of the army’s six month campaign in the northwest.

It also suggests an unprecedented level of cooperation between Pashtun militants in north-western Pakistan, Al Qaeda and other foreigners sheltering there, and militant groups based in Punjab - the country's most populous province.

And it shows, more vividly than ever, that Pakistan’s security forces - including the powerful army - are unable even to protect even their own headquarters against the militants, many of whom have military training themselves.

Today's triple attack on law enforcement buildings in Lahore coincided with a suicide bombing in the northwest and followed a weekend raid on the army headquarters and two more suicide bombings last week.

The militants’ immediate aim is clear: to discourage the army from launching an imminent ground assault on the tribal region of South Waziristan - the main stronghold of the Pakistani Taleban and its closest allies.

The Pakistani Taleban has already suffered one major setback this year when they advanced into the north-western region of Swat - getting to within 60 miles of the capital, Islamabad - only to be driven out by the army.

The government announced the South Waziristan operation in June and, ever since, the army has been moving troops into the area, blocking the roads around it and pounding militant hideouts with air strikes and artillery.

Early this month, the government and the army began saying that preparations for the operation were complete and it would start imminently. That is when the wave of Taleban attacks began.

The Taleban has also made several public statements, warning clearly that the assault on South Waziristan will trigger further militant attacks across Pakistan, where it now claims to have branches in all major regions.

What is less clear is whether they are doing this from a position of strength, having re-grouped since the death of Baitullah Mehsud, their former leader, or out of desperation in the face of imminent defeat in South Waziristan.

When Mehsud was killed by a US drone strike in August, it was prematurely hailed as a death blow for the Pakistani Taleban, which he founded and used to carry out dozens of attacks against targets in Pakistan.

There were unconfirmed reports of a violent leadership struggle within the Taleban, in which several potential successors had also been killed, including Wali-ur Rehman and Mehsud’s brother, Hakimullah.

Ten days ago, however, Hakimullah Mehsud made a public appearance at which he claimed the Taleban leadership and threatened to avenge his brother’s death.

Mr Rehman was then heard in telephone intercepts communicating with the militants who attacked army headquarters over the weekend, according to the army spokesman.

The implication is that the Taleban has indeed re-grouped under a new leadership, probably headed by Hakimullah Mehsud, and is sufficiently united to stage attacks every bit as big as those perpetrated by its former leader.

The involvement of Punjabi militants in the army headquarters raid also suggests that Mr Mehsud is working closely with members or former members of the Punjab-based groups, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Janghvi.

Analysts have been warning for years that southern Punjab, in particular, has become a fertile recruiting ground for these groups, some of which have had close links to the Pakistani military.

The government and the army will now come under increasing political and public pressure to begin the ground assault on South Waziristan to show that they are taking firm action against the militants.

The hope is that the army will be able to reduce the Taleban's capabilities by killing or capturing leaders like Mr Mehsud and Mr Rehman and destroying militant training camps and hideouts.

The fear, however, is that even if the army prevails in South Waziristan, Taleban allies in other tribal areas, and particularly in Punjab, will still be able to respond with attacks like those over the last 11 days.

[ModerateMuslim]

wow, pakistan is close to collapsing.

damn, emir hakimullah mehsud ain't messing around. this mujahid is death serious and has the ability to bring down the pakistani apostate puppet government.

[The Nomad]

Zindabad Taliban

[ModerateMuslim]

hakimullah mehsud for emir al-mumineen/khalifah