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The Shabelle River is proving to be something of a frontier for both sides of the conflict, but interestingly enough I wonder if the areas currently administered by or aligned with ASWJ (northern Marexan, Habar Gidir and northern Mudulood) will continue to grow closer together in their alliance and form a state together some time in the future? Galhiiraanudug?

I'm choosing this moment to call stalemate. The war has reached a level of equilibrium within each side solidly fortified their respective power bases. They're too evenly matched to defeat each other, so someone has to go to the bargaining table and end this war. I assume whoever emerges victorious in Mogadishu will inevitably force the other to the bargaining table, but here too the forces are too solidly entrenched and I just don't see much more than a district here or there moving from one side to the other.

I added a few new things to this iteration of the map, the situation in the capital, and a nice blue for the ocean.

James Dahl,Do you think Sheik Aweys will win this war?

What is your opinion about this war,will the stalemate continue until 2020?

luis1 wrote:James Dahl,Do you think Sheik Aweys will win this war?

What is your opinion about this war,will the stalemate continue until 2020?

Aweys? He leads by far the weakest and most crumbling faction in the conflict, and his supporters have been joining either al-Shabab or the government for a month now.

Ahl Sunna wal Jama'a and the government forces are slightly weaker than al-Shabab, but the government's military is slowly growing in strength and Ahl Sunna is gaining momentum as well, faster than al-Shabab, so eventually the government will force al-Shabab to the bargaining table.

Dahl: What happened to Al Ittihad in Somalia?

Does it exist today?

I heard AIAI was defeated by Ethiopia.

luis1 wrote:Dahl: What happened to Al Ittihad in Somalia?

Does it exist today?

I heard AIAI was defeated by Ethiopia.

al-Ittihad merged into what would become the UIC years ago, it's leader was Hassan Turki.
One incarnation was defeated by an Ethiopian invasion into Gedo in around 1999 I believe, another basing itself out of Bosaso was defeated by Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmad.