James Dahl

[Digdahab]

So James Dahl and other analysts

what's the latest developement on the peninsula regarding general and political issues.
last I heard was shabab had morphed into something worse, a cancer within the cancer had broken out and karbaashed shabab itself.
just like shabab did to UIC ( XI )

any maps ++ comments whats up and what is next going to happen

[Digdahab]

BUMP*

[James Dahl]

Somalia is at a crossroads, in the next month or so the government forces will either win or lose decisively.
I'm not one to try and predict the future, indeed I have no idea what will happen.

[Digdahab]

I've heard Al Shabab has morphed and fragmentated into two halfs, one retained the shabab name and controlling kismayo and southern portions .
And the other is more extreme and controls larger area.

whats this about? I saw it from a political map in SOL

[James Dahl]

I've heard Al Shabab has morphed and fragmentated into two halfs, one retained the shabab name and controlling kismayo and southern portions .
And the other is more extreme and controls larger area.

whats this about? I saw it from a political map in SOL

Well I don't know, I mean I heard reports about that but now I'm not so sure, I think the divide has less impact than reported.

[Digdahab]

what we really should focus on is the division, has the shabab fragmentated into two halfs or not.
Not the impact itself, It will be interesting to follow, but somehow I believe there won't be anything decisive about this battle in Xamar.

Sharifs government has become a major disappointment itself.
I wonder how the maritime negotiotiations with Kenya really went-... I just don't trust these people.

[James Dahl]

what we really should focus on is the division, has the shabab fragmentated into two halfs or not.
Not the impact itself, It will be interesting to follow, but somehow I believe there won't be anything decisive about this battle in Xamar.

Sharifs government has become a major disappointment itself.
I wonder how the maritime negotiotiations with Kenya really went-... I just don't trust these people.

Well, the report on al-Shabab splitting in two I read from Mareeg.com, which is usually a pretty reliable source. A few people I correspond with occasionally in regards to Somali politics as well as lots of folks on this forum dispute that though, so I don't know what the truth is.

The maritime border with Kenya was originally negotiated under the early republic and Siad Barre governments, and was only re-ratified I believe by the TFG, or at least that's what I've read. To be honest though even if there is oil, it's out further than the maritime national boundary anyways, so it's something of a moot point.

[grandpakhalif]

what we really should focus on is the division, has the shabab fragmentated into two halfs or not.
Not the impact itself, It will be interesting to follow, but somehow I believe there won't be anything decisive about this battle in Xamar.

Sharifs government has become a major disappointment itself.
I wonder how the maritime negotiotiations with Kenya really went-... I just don't trust these people.

Al shabab's top leadership is divided: One wants to focus on Somalia while the other wants too mimic Al Qaeda