Every major somali political grouping other than al-shabab are under its influence and are in reality ethiopian sattelites
just like the warsaw pact countries like poland, east germany were sattelites of the Soviet Union.
This goes for Somaliland, Puntland, ahlu al suna wa al jamaca and the TFG.
In Somalilands case, they have been patiently waiting for recognition since 91, and expected that this
will help it counter ethiopia and have a more equal relationship when its territroy is internationally protected like Djibouti,
while leaving the rest of somalia to thier own devices.
Puntland mission from inception has been to gaurentee the security and political power of the majerteen
since the carta government did not include them they were hostile to it.
When cabdullahi yusuf took over the last TFG,
he attempted to use puntland to gain power over the rest of somalia.
The problem was that he had the opposition of a real peoples movement the islamic courts that were forming,
and also the warlords that were reported to command some 60,000 mooryan.
The situation today is different,
most of the clans in south are exhausted by 19 years of war, and the only force interested in fighting today are alshabab and thier splinter groups.
Ahlu sunna wa jamaca are a defensive movement in response to the latter group...
The solution is deceptively simple.
Use Somaliland and to a lesser extent Puntland to help bring about a new and genuine TFG.
This should be formed on Somali land.
A TFG army should be trained and armed on Somali soil and this should then march south and secure the capital.
The al shabab and thier splinter groups have descredited themselves and do not have the support of the population,
they are holding hostage the people with less than 6,000 fighters amongs them.
What is needed is a source of funding and training from a reliable source.
The arabs should provide funding, and the Americans or EU maybe Egypt and Pakistan can be a source of officers for training.
The west has to be brought on board to prevent the Ethiopians from interfering.
from the political front, we need to avoid the failures of the previous TFG's.
There are 500 or more members of parlaiment that have no constituency, and are mostly washed up former warlords
and other useless sorts.
We need to invite clan elders and prominent men from all clans ,especially fromthe south.
This might mean that there could be nearly 1000 delegates from all clans meeting on somali soil,
Somaliland or Puntland.
They can elect a new TFG that will have the mandate to rule for 4 years till elections are held and constitution formulated.
Now what will prevent this TFG from having the same result as the previous 16 ot 17 attempts?
This new TFG needs to have a powerfull and commited millitary force behind it from the begining.
Somaliland and Puntland would be a good source.
In somalilands case there are 20,000 soliers on the books recieving a salary.
This is taking up more than half the budget of Somaliland and little is left over to maintain equipment of buy new ones,
there is little left over for training as well...
What will Somaliland get out of this deal?
for starters , recognition.
This is exactly how Eritrea got its independance recognized.
Eritrea and its allies defeated the dergue, then the EPLF helped the TPLF and EPRDF and OLF by marching into Addis Ababa with them and installing a new government.
This new government then recognized eritreas independance.
another products of this deal would be the retraining and requipment of our armed forces and saving million of dollars from the budget in the form of salaries, becuase the rest of the world will pick up the tab.
what do you think....
