Sufis now say Shabaab is putting emphasis on going north.

[Voltage]

Sufi Militia Says Al-Shabab Planning to Attack Galgadud Region

Alisha Ryu 15 September 2010

A Sufi militia defending parts of Somalia's central regions from al-Qaida-linked militants says it believes al-Shabab has shifted some of the group's military focus from Mogadishu to the central regions and is preparing to launch attacks in the central Galgadud region.

Fighters for the Sufi Ahlu-Sunna Wal-Jama'a militia are said to be on high alert in Ahlu-Sunna strongholds, including Dhusamareb, Guri-el, Abudwaq and Balanbal in the Galgadud region.

Earlier this week, a spokesman for the Sufi group, Abdullahi Abdirahman al-Qadi urged residents in towns under its control to remain vigilant and to report any al-Shabab presence or activity.

Stability

Horn of Africa observer Stig Jarle Hansen at the Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research says if al-Shabab attacks and is able to capture Dhusamareb, it could significantly affect the stability of Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region as well.

The Puntland government is battling an Islamist insurgency in the remote mountains of northern Somalia, led by factional leader, Mohamed Siad Atom, who has pledged allegiance to al-Shabab and is believed to have links with al-Qaida,

Analyst Hansen says the fear is that if Ahlu-Sunna is chased out of Dhusamareb, al-Shabab may be able to advance to the Puntland-controlled area of Galkayo and link up with Atom's forces.

"The wider picture is that al-Shabab has been slowly but surely expanding north into Galgadud province," said Hansen. "In fact, the last stronghold of the Sufists before you reach Galkayo is Dhusamareb. If Dhusamareb falls to al-Shabab, that might change the whole strategic situation."

Buffer

Although Ahlu-Sunna suffers from internal divisions, it has served a vital role as a buffer force against al-Shabab ambitions to seize all regions in southern and central Somalia.

Ahlu-Sunna's heightened concern in Galgadud follows a major offensive launched by al-Shabab in the Somali capital Mogadishu during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Al-Shabab, which aims to turn Somalia and other parts of the region into an ultra-conservative Islamic caliphate, carried out two separate suicide attacks in the city and, following fierce battles, took over several government bases. But it failed in its larger objective to take the presidential palace and other key sites that remain under A.U. and government control.

Unable to seize all of Mogadishu, observers say there is a possibility that al-Shabab could be shifting its strategy and looking once again to target Galgadud's largest town, Dhusamareb.

In January, al-Shabab forces briefly seized Dhusamareb from Ahlu-Sunna Wal-Jama'a in what analysts described was part of a move to encircle the government in Mogadishu by extending its authority throughout central Somalia. Ahlu-Sunna fought back several days later and regained control of Dhusamareb. It has controlled the town ever since.

Ahlu-Sunna's reputation in Somalia has been tainted by reports that it is supported by Somalia's regional rival, Ethiopia.

[Voltage]

If Shabaab takes Galgaduud, basically Boosaaso is taken. If they get to Boosaaso, basically Hargeisa is taken. But how accurate is this "major shift" in Shabaab strategy?

[marcassmith]

If Shabaab takes Galgaduud, basically Boosaaso is taken. If they get to Boosaaso, basically Hargeisa is taken. But how accurate is this "major shift" in Shabaab strategy?

[Twisted_Logic]

If Shabaab takes Galgaduud, basically Boosaaso is taken. If they get to Boosaaso, basically Hargeisa is taken. But how accurate is this "major shift" in Shabaab strategy?

Any new predictions?

[grandpakhalif]

Voltage, you think Al shaba can just sweep in Galgaduud, i'm sorry but we have brave men willing to risk their lives to protect this region

[Voltage]

If Shabaab takes Galgaduud, basically Boosaaso is taken. If they get to Boosaaso, basically Hargeisa is taken. But how accurate is this "major shift" in Shabaab strategy?

Any new predictions?

I will withhold any predictions as of now. I would first have to see if this strategy is realized and with what strength they put into it.

[Voltage]

Voltage, you think Al shaba can just sweep in Galgaduud, i'm sorry but we have brave men willing to risk their lives to protect this region

Anywhere in the regions, Al Shabaab has taken if they put enough emphasis on it. It is very apparent ever since they took the southern portions of the country, Shabaab has thought of taking Mogadishu and using that as a launchpad to go north. However, because Mogadishu has become hard to take and mostly because of the AMISOM troops, it would seem logical Shabaab would reorient strategy, put emphasis on the northern regions and wish to reengage with strength in Mogadishu with additional resources and men under them.

[Cirwaaq]

Are shabab allergic to fighting non somalis?

[grandpakhalif]

Voltage, you think Al shaba can just sweep in Galgaduud, i'm sorry but we have brave men willing to risk their lives to protect this region

Anywhere in the regions, Al Shabaab has taken if they put enough emphasis on it. It is very apparent ever since they took the southern portions of the country, Shabaab has thought of taking Mogadishu and using that as a launchpad to go north. However, because Mogadishu has become hard to take and mostly because of the AMISOM troops, it would seem logical Shabaab would reorient strategy, put emphasis on the northern regions and wish to reengage with strength in Mogadishu with additional resources and men under them.

Saxib, that's not Al shabab's strategy and you are mistaken. Al shabab have never sweeped through a land where they're hated, of course the southern part of the country which have been ravaged by Warlords, the citizens readily accepted the UIC rule, thus when UIC was disintegrated a political vacuum allowed Al shabab to seize the moment and capture these areas under the cloak of Islam. Al shabab's strategy includes recruitment and utilizing clan division to their advantage, for example the areas of Ceelbuur which Al shabab operates is mostly consisted of Duduble/Murusade citizens who have always been supportive of Al shabab. Al shabab then uses this clan as a launching pad to attack the neighbouring clans which extremely detest Al shabab (Cayr, Marehan) who have allied themselves against Al shabab, creating a security force which has the full peoples support.

If al shabab wants to capture anything above Ceelbuur it must convince these clans to stop supporting ASWJ, which is highly unlikely as these are their boys.

[Murax]

Al Shabab will never capture Galgudud, they've been saying they would for the past 2 years. This Ahlu Sunnah militia in Galgudud and the 2 block AMISOM perimeter in Mogadishu are impenetrable obstacles for them. Galgudud is the buffer that seperates Shabab from Puntland/Somaliland.


Also don't think for a second Shabab really wants to take over all of Somalia. They need Shareef in Mogadishu and they need Ahlu Sunnah, for financial reasons. They need these "emenies" here to continue to get funding from whoever their backers are that there is a real enemy a "Xabashi" friendly militia in Galgudud and AMISOM in Xamar. They all need each other.

[Twisted_Logic]

Al Shabab will never capture Galgudud, they've been saying they would for the past 2 years. This Ahlu Sunnah militia in Galgudud and the 2 block AMISOM perimeter in Mogadishu are impenetrable obstacles for them. Galgudud is the buffer that seperates Shabab from Puntland/Somaliland.


Also don't think for a second Shabab really wants to take over all of Somalia. They need Shareef in Mogadishu and they need Ahlu Sunnah, for financial reasons. They need these "emenies" here to continue to get funding from whoever their backers are that there is a real enemy a "Xabashi" friendly militia in Galgudud and AMISOM in Xamar. They all need each other.

You know what scares me from this comment- You could very well be right.

[Voltage]

Murax might be on this. What if you reversed what you said and maybe Sufis are lying and might be trying to collect some money?

[Murax]

Al Shabab will never capture Galgudud, they've been saying they would for the past 2 years. This Ahlu Sunnah militia in Galgudud and the 2 block AMISOM perimeter in Mogadishu are impenetrable obstacles for them. Galgudud is the buffer that seperates Shabab from Puntland/Somaliland.


Also don't think for a second Shabab really wants to take over all of Somalia. They need Shareef in Mogadishu and they need Ahlu Sunnah, for financial reasons. They need these "emenies" here to continue to get funding from whoever their backers are that there is a real enemy a "Xabashi" friendly militia in Galgudud and AMISOM in Xamar. They all need each other.

You know what scares me from this comment- You could very well be right.

Twisted Logic,

This "Stalemate" in Somalia is not really a stalemate per se. Nothing more then Political WWF theatrics. I know for a fact these Shishkabab do not want and cannot have the TFG die, no matter how much tough talk they make.


Voltage,

Ofcourse these Suufis are trying to get their cut, isn't everybody else doing it?

[FAH1223]

Al Shabab will never capture Galgudud, they've been saying they would for the past 2 years. This Ahlu Sunnah militia in Galgudud and the 2 block AMISOM perimeter in Mogadishu are impenetrable obstacles for them. Galgudud is the buffer that seperates Shabab from Puntland/Somaliland.


Also don't think for a second Shabab really wants to take over all of Somalia. They need Shareef in Mogadishu and they need Ahlu Sunnah, for financial reasons. They need these "emenies" here to continue to get funding from whoever their backers are that there is a real enemy a "Xabashi" friendly militia in Galgudud and AMISOM in Xamar. They all need each other.

Bingo.

[James Dahl]

I don't see what the rush is, right now Ethiopia can afford to send armies into Somalia, and the TFG still has a mandate, which AMISOM is protecting.

If I was in charge of al-Shabab I would just lock down the government in their districts, consolidate the south behind myself, and start playing divide and rule up north, and try and duplicate what happened in Galgala to also happen in Galkacyo, Lascanood and Burco.

When the TFG mandate expires there's no way they can hold elections in Mogadishu, and without a mandate AMISOM has nothing to protect.

It's like the parable of the north wind and the sun. The North wind and the sun had an argument about who can remove a traveller's coat. The north wind blows and blows and blows as hard as it can, but the harder it blows the traveller just pulls his coat tighter, and he can never get the coat off. The sun on the other hand just shines down on the traveller, and eventually the traveller gets so hot and sweaty under his coat that he takes it off, and becomes so tired of carrying it that he drops it by the side of the road.

Who knows what changes two years might bring? Trouble is brewing in Kenya and Ethiopia, and they may not be in any position to do anything about al-Shabab in two years, even if they can now. The only thing al-Shabaab needs to do to eventually emerge victorious is merely survive.