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After the war in Buur Hakaba looks like there is an imminent war in Wanlaweyn looming. People have been leaving Wanlaweyn and coming to Afgooye for threat of a possible war. Xisbul Islam have been gathering fighters in Afgooye for a war with Shabaab

Looks like this will happen. Either Xisbul Islam will dissolve or join Shabaab. The threat of war is very real.

Their time is up,mijority are eager to switch sides if that happens it wont be hard for them to be swept under the rug.

Aweys should avoid war. If he does decide to fight he will be wiped out faster than Ahmed Madoobe. And I don't know where Aweys will run to this time if he loses

sheik awees looks like a man with principals. No matter how his militia get whipped by alshabab he never crossed to UN faction or even implied he may do so. I am not saying he is right or wrong but at least he is driven by believes.

I dont think he is stupid enough to choose war knowing the muscle on the other side,more than likely he will cave in.

xisbul xasuuq time is up bro..he want 2 hold afgoye but it wont be that long before alkilaab took over

waryaa wrote:sheik awees looks like a man with principals. No matter how his militia get whipped by alshabab he never crossed to UN faction or even implied he may do so. I am not saying he is right or wrong but at least he is driven by believes.

True, Gold bless Shayk Awes

Some will dissolve, some will join Shabaab but the organization itself will eventually run out of steam and die out. There was an identical scenario in Afghanistan. When the Soviets invaded a Pashtun nationalist warlord called Gulbaddin Hekmatyar (Dahir Aweys) had a militia called the Khalis faction (Al-Itihaad Al-Islaami), and after the war he continued to play politics in Mogadishu (Hawiye reconciliation era) but was subsequently sidelined by the Taliban's hardline ideology. When the US invaded he styled himself into an Islamist radical militant and founded the new Hezb-i-Islami (lol) and began daring raids against coalition troops to prove his mettle. Some merged into AQ and Al-Shabaab during that time. His organization has taken money before from non-Sunni sources like Iran much the same way Somalia's Hizbul Islam takes aid from Eritrea while Al-Shabaab stays clear from it. Many of Hezb-i-Islami have now joined the Afghan government and the organization does not launch operations any longer and may have ceased to exist.

As I explained in an earlier thread, today's Islamic militants can only achieve success if they are absolutists. Wavering and political negotiations equal defeat any way you add it up. Hizbul Islam in Somalia, like their similar counterparts in Afghanistan, are too political and too wishy-washy to survive.

More like warlord aweys, he aint no dammm sheik.

Every Alshabaab reject and former isbaaro kingpin is now sporting the Xisbul Islaam name.

I hope the Shababs hand their ass on a platter to them, they're nothing short of crooks, Aweys included.

What "Sheikh" taxes refugees at Ceelasha Biyaha and turns a blind eye when one of his top men loots a resourceful establishment such as Dr. Hawa Abdi's hospital? They gotta go.

Lol, The dude and his militia will be defeated, and after few months or perhaps a year or two, he'll appear again with another t-shirt to sport and new mutiny group - I reckon Al-Ansaar, or Al-tabliiq, etc. However, he might totally go off the rails, and accept a position in the coming Gov. (depends on whether such an offer will be made), and trust me, he's not a better or highly principled person compared to the ex-Macalin Dugsi - Sheikh Dalxiis, Lol. Time will tell, though...

Manshallah.


While Xibul Xaram will lose, I hope they weaken the Shababs greatly.

Ureysoo wrote:Lol, The dude and his militia will be defeated, and after few months or perhaps a year or two, he'll appear again with another t-shirt to sport and new mutiny group - I reckon Al-Ansaar, or Al-tabliiq, etc. However, he might totally go off the rails, and accept a position in the coming Gov. (depends on whether such an offer will be made), and trust me, he's not a better or highly principled person compared to the ex-Macalin Dugsi - Sheikh Dalxiis, Lol. Time will tell, though...

Aweys is good at that. Really good. Man has a lot of charisma. Doesn't matter if he's in Boosaaso, Gedo, Xamar, or wherever he gets support. Its a gift, he is able to come back time and time again. In politics if you die once, you usually never come back, Aweys is different.

But this time I don't see how he will get out of it. I doubt he will join the dowlad. If he fights he will be destroyed. If he joins Shabaab he will be sidelined. Doesn't look like the old man has much left in the tank.

But then again most others would've been completely out the game after his loss in Boosaaso 1992.

theres a lot of ahlul khair in X.I, laakin those people called ARS baa ku dhex qaldamay shame wallahi its the secularists warlords within X.I who are causing these problems soon inshAllah these good guys in the group will join the real Islamic establishment

XI is much stronger now than it was a few months ago. Aweys has been bolstered by reinforcements from Bay, Bakool Jubboyinka. He has gained numerous support from the more Somalist Islamists who are fed up of AS Arabist driven agenda and control.

XI will hold its ground and push back AS. XI is the only Somali run and operated insurgent group unlike AS which is controlled and lead by foreigners. The wiley old fox will outsmart AS.

Anyways, the weaker XI & AS get, the better for the freedom loving Somalis