Will Sudan referendum inspire secessionists elsewhere in Afr

[Goljano Lion]

Will Sudan referendum inspire secessionists elsewhere in Africa?



New countries borne of partitions and border changes are not common, but will partial autonomy in Somaliland lead to secession now that South Sudan provides an example?

South Sudanese children dressed in their Sunday best, who returned to the South by barges on the Nile river, sit amidst their belongings in Juba’s port on Jan. 11. About four million Southern Sudanese voters began casting their ballots Sunday in a weeklong referendum on independence that is expected to split Africa’s largest nation in two. Yesterday the BBC invited readers to a discussion on Facebook about the potential impact of South Sudanese secession on political configurations in Africa:

If South Sudan gets independence, will it encourage splits in other African countries? A number of voices are suggesting that could happen as the vote takes place in the South. Could Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Congo, Angola and others break up too? Colonel Gaddafi described a divided Sudan as “the beginning of the crack in Africa’s map” … Would that be a good or bad thing for the continent?

From what I know, border changes and the partition of nations occur relatively rarely. In Africa, you have Eritrean independence from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, but beyond that I am struggling to find an example of a country on the continent seceding from or joining another since the independence era (see Wikipedia’s list of border changes in Africa since World War I). So I think that South Sudan’s secession may inspire hope among secessionists elsewhere, but I do not think it will touch off a domino effect of splits.

There is one other region in Africa that appears within reach of independent nationhood: Somaliland, which has claimed independence since 1991. Somaliland has its own government and enjoys a greater degree of stability than other regions of Somalia. Recently Somaliland successfully transferred power from one democratically elected leader to another, reinforcing democratic credentials that outshine those of many independent African nations. As crisis continues in southern and central Somalia, moreover, the US and other Western powers are showing greater willingness to consider recognizing Somaliland or at least treating it, de facto, as its own nation.

Interestingly, given this discussion about South Sudan and Somaliland, The Economist recently interviewed Somaliland’s new president, Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo, and Somaliland’s foreign minister, Mohamed Abdullahi Omar, on the subject. The interview is worth reading in full, but here is one key quote:

Baobab: What are the implications of the referendum in South Sudan for Somaliland’s quest for recognition?

AS: If the international community accepts South Sudan’s independence, that opens the door for us as well. It would mean that the principle that African borders should remain where they were at the time of independence would change. It means that If Southern Sudan can go their way, that should open the door for Somaliland’s independence as well and that the international position that Somaliland not be recognised separate from Somalia has changed.

What do you think? Is recognition for Somaliland in sight?

[grandpakhalif]

Wey dhuushey

[Basra-]

Gol lion aka former lion heart, i didnt know u are voltage too.

[Sanbalolshe]

Man, landers should stop crying like bitches and start abusing people if they are to get recognition. Just corrupt the mooryaans in the south while they are still weak, get them to sign some documents while they still high on qat, and bitch slap all the dhabayocos while kissing as many american and european arses as possible in the process. It really isn't that hard when you think about it .

[Cali_Gaab]

The secessionists of Somaliland, 'SSC', should take a page out of South Sudans book.

[Voltage]

Do you understand what is going on in Sudan is a referendum agreed to by the seceding partner and the one being left? They mutually agreed to the referendum under strong conditions like 60% of the population has to vote and 2/3 have to vote independence.

No outside force "recognized" south Sudan and non will until the north does which they are obligated to do if the conditions in the south are met. How is this in any way similar to recognizing a go it all entity?

[Sanbalolshe]

"Do you understand what is going on in Sudan is a referendum agreed to by the seceding partner and the one being left?"



Am i mad, or was this line really really funny??

So voltage you fear being among those who will be "left", by the, "seceding", and therefore succeding partner, in this case Somaliland if their dream comes true?? As you know the world knows Somalia as a failed state, so what do you think it will say when the qaldaans finally come on top loooooooooooooool?? Beyond failed perhaps? Do you think the name Somalia will be even mentioned then ?

[Voltage]

Go back to ESL. I never said anything about "succeeding". I saidseceding which means to leave. When you leave, you leave someone...the entity is left. Has nothing to do with seceding partner coming on top or not, it just means they are a different entity from the base.

Also, I support Somaliland's secession.

[FAH1223]

The major difference is that the government of Sudan agreed to a peace agreement with the Southerners exactly six years ago to facilitate this process.

Khartoum's hand is in all of this.

Meanwhile, Somalia may exist on paper but it doesn't exist in reality. Somaliland exists on the ground, but not on paper. Somaliland's issue is that there is not a similar partnership (that we see in Sudan) for the cause of international recognition because the conditions haven't ever been present. Somaliland had a referendum back in 2001 (?)... I'd imagine if another one happened the results would be similar.

So for Somaliland to receive recognition from the world... it has to be coming from a place most Somalilanders would not want to look at first.

[quark]

Dammit, I want independence for Jubba rass state

[RuralMan08]

Somaliland will not get recognised no matter what. You need to get recognition out of your heads because it will not happen. You might want me to elaborate on why this will not happen.

No.1: In order for Somaliland to become independent they need an independence referendum from the TFG, whether or not you call them a failed entity, according to the United Nations they represent Somalia from Lawyacado to Kismaayo.

No.2 If there was a referendum, only a minority of the inhabitansts of "Somaliland" would choose that (Isaaq), whilst the overwhelming majority of clans such as Dhulbahante, Warsangeli, Samaroon, Ciise would all vote NO to secession.

To conclude

In order for Somaliland to be independent they need to go back to Mogadishu, lobby the different politicians, beg, grovel, kiss the sand underneath their feet and beg for a referendum supported by United Nations officials and the legitimate government of Somalia supported by the United States, United Nations (TFG), get backing from different entities, build up the infrastructure of "Somaliland" to show that they can be a viable self sufficient state. If then, you get the green light for a referendum then we shall talk about recognition. Until then please cease talking about independence as it will never happen in a million years. Its not in the interests of any nation in the region, United Nations or the United States to see an independent Somaliland. So just forget about it.

[gurey25]

minority of clans


british population studies in 1950 shown Issaq at 67% of the population.

The 1975 census by the kacaan government the only one somalia had the majority of the population clearly in Issaq areas.

thats the 50's and 70's ...

It is probable that today we are at least that if not approaching 70%.

That means that if isaaq alone vote the vote will pass with 2/3rds majority..

In reality at least 90% of isaaq will vote yes, a good percentage of Gadabursi will say yes too probaly more than half, with minority harti votes for yes

more than 80% yes vote is to be expected.

[grandpakhalif]

minority of clans


british population studies in 1950 shown Issaq at 67% of the population.

The 1975 census by the kacaan government the only one somalia had the majority of the population clearly in Issaq areas.

thats the 50's and 70's ...

It is probable that today we are at least that if not approaching 70%.

That means that if isaaq alone vote the vote will pass with 2/3rds majority..

In reality at least 90% of isaaq will vote yes, a good percentage of Gadabursi will say yes too probaly more than half, with minority harti votes for yes

more than 80% yes vote is to be expected.

According to the 1960 Somali constitution a referendum has to be national, for a territory to split, not only in somaliland.

[The_Emperior5]

wrong the referendum wlll be held only in the Sl territory British Somaliland and the south needs to accept the result just like what happened in asmara and adis accepted the same way khartoum will accept the outcome of the south. Thats how it works

[Cirwaaq]

The story of Somalia and somaliland is best depicted in the Movie Micery where this woman holds a famous author captive... She goes as far as break his legs to ensure he does not leave... In her fear of loneliness she failed to realise sooner or later she would have to let him go for he would find a way to leave even over her dead body.



I can't think of a better story that describes the somali love affair.