Congo, Burundi set to sign Nile River water accord
The Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi may soon sign an accord on water usage from the Nile River, Bloomberg reported.
The leaders of the two nations are set to adopt the so-called Comprehensive Framework Agreement once they “fully understand” the issues, Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said in an interview in Addis Ababa on January 15.
One of the stipulations of the CFA is that it should be signed by August 1. The CFA, signed by Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya in May, will establish a commission to oversee dam building and irrigation development effectively.
Egypt and Sudan need to understand “there is no way out without cooperating,” said Hailemariam, who is also Ethiopia’s foreign minister. Not only was Ethiopia not party to the two treaties, but they are also “obsolete and unjust.”
“It’s very important we have a clear understanding of using the Nile water together, with a win-win approach,” he said.
Congo and Burundi spearheaded the drafting of the CFA and for them not to sign would raise questions about their “integrity,” Hailemariam said.
The CFA states that the commission will resolve the issue of water security in its first six months of operations. Efficiency measures proposed under the CFA would provide enough water for all upstream countries without reducing Sudan and Egypt’s share, Hailemariam said.
Evaporation from Egypt’s Aswan Dam causes the loss of 10 billion cubic meters (353 billion cubic feet) of water annually, which could be saved if a dam was built in the narrow gorges of the Ethiopian highlands, according to Hailemariam.
Investment in modernising Egypt’s irrigation system could save another 6 billion meters; some of the 13.4 billion that flows into the Mediterranean Sea could be utilised; and 5 billion would be saved if Egypt ended its project to irrigate the Tushka Desert.
The Nile River’s average discharge is about 300 million cubic meters per day, according to the website of the Nile Basin Initiative. Ethiopia is the source of about 85 percent of the water that flows to Sudan and Egypt.
The proposed measures may save a total of as much as 20 cubic billon meters, Hailemariam said, while upstream nations need “less than 10 billion cubic meters” of additional water.
In addition, Ethiopia’s Nile Basin has the potential to generate 10,000-megawatts of hydropower, he said. This could be shared with all Nile countries if it was developed, without reducing the river’s flow.
“There are lots of technical and political ways of doing things without significantly harming Egypt or Sudan,” he said.
The “common ideas” of upstream countries mean Egypt’s decades- long attempts to maintain the status quo by weakening and destabilizing Ethiopia has to change, Hailemariam said. Other realities, such as climate change and Ethiopia’s rapid development and stability, also mean Egypt “must come out of its comfort zone and think in a different way”.
Military conflict over the river would be a “disaster for all sides” and is very unlikely, the minister said. “There is no way Ethiopia can harm Egypt as the interconnection is so high. One cannot trouble the other if we want to prosper.”
Successful development projects in its Nile Basin, such as the construction of the Tana Beles and Tekeze hydropower plants over the past two years, demonstrate that Ethiopia will forge ahead, even amid objections by its northern neighbor, Hailemariam said.
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Nile Basin water dispute: Beyond the meetings
Egypt has made no major breakthrough in its attempt to resolve the dispute over access to Nile waters, but it has not confronted a setback either. This was the bottom line repeated by several sources in concerned government bodies, as Egypt continues to fight to keep its annual share of the Nile waters untouched – or almost untouched.
"Things are moving forward with some but not all the upstream Nile states," said one official source.
However, explained the source, this progress has more to do with Egypt’s overall bilateral relations with some of the Nile Basin countries and less with efforts to reach a new water distribution agreement.
The least amount of progress, sources acknowledge, has been made with Ethiopia, which provides Egypt with over 80 per cent of its annual share.
"But we are not letting go on Ethiopia," said an Egyptian diplomat.
It is the consensus in Cairo that there is no short-term solution for this complicated dispute which began last May when five of the seven upstream countries signed an agreement to amend the distribution of the Nile waters in a way that would reduce Egypt's share.
So far, this agreement has not been implemented, and Cairo is hard at work to convince the involved states that it would be more opportune to pursue better management and reduce waste of the Nile resources rather than to cut the shares of the lower-stream states.
"What we are saying is simply let us all better-manage our resources and let us use more advanced technology in irrigation and power generation," explained the Egyptian diplomat.
This issue was expected to be tabled for discussion during a meeting that was scheduled for 25 January in the Kenyan capital. However, the meeting was delayed just days before it was to convene.
Some Egyptian sources suggest that the delay is essentially related to the corruption charges facing the Kenyan minister of water. Others, however, insist that "a certain Ethiopian influence" was exercised to delay the meeting, "just to keep Egypt on edge."
"But we stick to our policy of containment; getting into a political fight (with Ethiopia) would not resolve the differences," said the same Egyptian diplomat.
Meanwhile, a summit of the Nile Basin countries that was scheduled for next week in Uganda – in which Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif was supposed to represent President Hosni Mubarak – was also delayed.
Cairo, according to the official sources, is not really alarmed by the delays, saying that, despite the hold-ups, Egypt will continue its bilateral engagement with upstream states and with the donor states and organsiations which could provide for water projects that might affect Egypt's share.
Meanwhile, one official said that the Nairobi meeting is now "tentatively" scheduled for late February. He adds that consultations "will be conducted in order to come up with an alternative date for the Uganda summit – with a proper attendance of leaders."
"What counts most is not the convocation of meetings but rather the positions of the relevant states," said an Egyptian official.
The call for a summit was made jointly by Ethiopia and Uganda. And while many Egyptians believe Ethiopia may have had a hand in influencing its delay, there remain many who say that what actually prompted the delay was the anticipated low level of leader participation.