1.(C/NF) Following his mid-June visit to Somaliland, FCO Minister of State Kim Howells began questioning HMG's decision not to recognize Somaliland and started advocating internally for HMG to give greater support to Somaliland, according to FCO Somalia Research Analyst Cedric Barnes. Barnes said on August 8 he finds it highly unlikely that the UK would "unilaterally recognize" Somaliland, but that he would not be surprised if HMG becomes more proactive in its support to the unrecognized republic. In Barnes' estimation, HMG would find it too "diplomatically difficult" to recognize Somaliland because it would "annoy" many of the neighboring countries and potentially de-stabilize the Transition Federal Government (TFG) and Djibouti Agreement.
2.(C/NF) According to Barnes, Howells wrote to Foreign Secretary David Miliband upon his return from Somaliland, speaking in glowing terms about the "brilliant progress" that had been made in Somaliland, questioning HMG's policy of non-recognition, and advocating for more support. Barnes also said that the British Embassy in Addis Abba, which covers Somaliland, has long argued for HMG's recognition of Somaliland. Miliband, "taken by Howells' strong support," requested that the FCO's Africa Directorate review the policy and provide advice. The Africa Directorate pushed back aggressively, saying that recognition of Somaliland had the potential to de-stabilize the TFG and to unravel the Djibouti Agreement because of the strong nationalistic sentiments among the clans and movements in south Somalia.
-------4.(C/NF) There is no evidence to indicate that HMG will recognize Somaliland as an independent nation, especially with HMG officials focused on promoting a foreign policy that will help stabilize south Somalia and support the Djibouti Agreement. However, it is clear that the well organized Somaliland Diaspora in the UK have captured the attention of some key political figures and have an important and noticeable influence on HMG policies on Somalia.
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1.(C) Summary. Foreign Office East Africa and Great Lakes DAS-equivalent Jonathan Allen told AF PDAS Carter July 22 that ministers decided July 21 that Somalia "matters a lot to UK interests" and the British Government should put more resources into supporting the TFG and AMISOM, as well as the regions of Somaliland and Puntland. This is a 180-degree shift from UK policy advanced by Allen's predecessor. Allen agreed the TFG should focus its efforts on Mogadishu and then increase its base from there with AMISOM's support. Stopping support to al-Shabaab is critical to the TFG's survival, and the UK supports individual named sanctions against Eritreans and broader sanctions against Eritrea, if it does not stop its support. Noting BBC Somali Service's independence, Allen agreed to look into a possible bias in its reporting. On Kenya, Allen strongly supported close U.S.-UK cooperation to move the reform agenda forward, supported by elements of the Kenya civil society and media. On Ethiopia, he agreed the 2010 elections were unlikely to be free and fair and that it was important to focus on governance as a way to make them "acceptable." He said the UK is reviewing its support to Ethiopia in September, when it will consider the decreasing political space under President Meles. End summary.
3.(C) Indicating a 180-degree policy shift, Allen said the UK Government had been reviewing its Somalia policy (reftel) and ministers had decided July 21 that Somalia "matters a lot to UK interests" for migration, counter terrorism (CT), and humanitarian reasons, and that the UK needs to put more resources into dealing with Somalia. Allen said the UK plans to pursue a twin track of support. First, the UK will support the TFG, which is "fragile but still the best game in town," and UN processes, primarily through AMISOM. Secondly, the UK will do more work with Somaliland and Puntland. Allen agreed that the TFG should focus on Mogadishu for now, establishing security with AMISOM's help, delivering services, and encouraging governance and accountability as much as possible. He also agreed that countering al-Shabaab would be the TFG's most important task in the near-term and that it needed more support to do that. Allen took on board the need to encourage more African states to participate in AMISOM and that it was more important to focus on building AMISOM's capacity rather than expanding its mandate. He said the UK thought bordering countries should not be involved in AMISOM, as their domestic political concerns could compete with AMISOM's mission. Carter said the USG supports AMISOM funding coming from UN assessed costs, and Gordon said the UK was leaning in that direction. It would still be critical to pressure the UN to fulfill its obligations. Eritrea and Sanctions
4.(C) Allen said Eritrea was a spoiler, especially because of the support it supplies directly to or allows to be provided to al-Shabaab. He agreed that stopping support to al-Shabaab would be critical for the TFG's survival and said the UK supported sanctions against named Eritrean individuals. Sanctions should only go broader than that if Eritrea continues its unhelpful behavior. Allen agreed that sanctions against Eritrea would be an effective point for demarching Arab states about discouraging support that may emanate from within their borders, and he took on board that the EU's loan was not an effective form of engagement with Eritrea. He said the EU was close to turning off all its support to Eritrea. Somaliland ----------
5.(C) Allen said the UK plans "to thicken" its support to Somaliland, though the British government is not considering recognition at this stage. He conceded that the UK government would only look at recognition if south central Somalia appears to be in chaos for another 20 years, as the UK wants to support democracy in Somaliland and to continue LONDON 00001701 002 OF 003 its CT cooperation. Allen said the UK had been stressing to the Somaliland authorities the need for the September elections to take place. Carter acknowledged Somaliland's need to re-burnish its democratic credentials through an election and said that the U.S. and UK should coordinate more on Somaliland, especially on CT programming. Puntland --------
6.(C) Allen said the UK is talking to the Puntland authorities more and trying to assess the British government's ability to work with them. The Puntland President had recently been in London and "pretty much said all the right things," including on the coast guard and alternative livelihoods. Noting that the UK was under no illusion about who they were dealing with and the connection of the Puntland authorities to piracy, he said the UK was considering maritime support in particular, possibly with the EU. Allen said the risk-versus-reward relationship with piracy needs to be changed, and the best way to do that may be to bolster the Puntland's coast guard while keeping EU or UK personnel involved in all Puntland operations. Carter noted that it is also important for the international community to deal with the fishing and toxic waste dumping issues along the Puntland coast. Allen also noted that the Contact Group on Somalia had little support and interest in the international community, but that the Contact Group on piracy had lots. He suggested the U.S. and UK should work to get China and Russia more engaged on the corollary issues to piracy. Carter said the industry should be doing more and that the USG questions the effectiveness of establishing a special tribunal to deal with justice issues related to the pirates. Barnes said that while there is not currently an al-Shabaab piracy link with Puntland, it would be possible for al-Shabaab to squeeze Puntland more, if the TFG fails, and establish links with pirates. BBC Somali Service ------------------
10.(C) Allen agreed that the 2010 elections in Ethiopia would likely not be free and fair and that a focus on governance would be the only way to make them "acceptable" without disengaging Ethiopia entirely. Gordon argued that it was tough to deal with President Meles' autocratic, state-led growth policy because the social development indicators are improving. Carter noted that the Ethiopian systems that result in improved social development indicators are financed by foreign development assistance and are not sustainable. Also, Meles is increasingly reducing the political space in Ethiopia. Allen said the UK Government is reviewing its assistance programs and policy on Ethiopia in September and LONDON 00001701 003 OF 003 will be considering these issues.
