It is so easy to cheer for the death of somalis at the hands of Ugandians, burundians and Ethiopians. When the dust settles all those that had a hand in the death of somalis will have to face the facts on the ground. Somalis will be left to their own devices for these african troops will not remain permanently.
If we learnt anything from the dispersal and destruction of UIC we are wise to recollect the aftermath of that offensive. A unified UIC was fractured and led to the creation of Shabab, XI and ASWJ. For 5 years the fragments caused havoc in Koonfur when they reached a stable state and united once again the cycle has began to once again fracture them into smaller groups. This time we do not know how many sub groups will result from the offensive.
It was an opportunity wasted when a single command was in place to negotiate with UIC and once again another wasted opportunity to negatiate with a single command over shabab. A single command able to exert discipline over it's troops. When fractured that discipline is no longer available and as such the end result is the suffering of the civilians for every faction will command a certain territory and set/execute their authority exclusively.
It is easier to deal with a hive then rogue agents scattered in their thousands across the country. Certainly the rate of death becomes exponantially greater.
Looking on the brighter side perhabs the offensive will induce elements in shabab to be more accepting of negotiations? if that occurs then there is victory if not the entire offensive is totally without merit.
