The Shabab Reaping From The Kenyan Invasion

[TheblueNwhite]

I had written about how the Shabab were going to lose the border towns in the Jubba regions, given the artillery and air support the local militias and TFG fighters there were getting from Kenya and Ethiopia. I had foreseen the Shabab keeping the TFG fighters at bay in the border towns, and periodically taking the towns and withdraw afterwards.
In another post, I talked about how the Shabab may get back at Kenya for the support of their enemy militias. I had expected them to launch a terrorist attack into Kenya, in which innocent Somalis would also be harmed and targeted by the Kenyan security, as is happening now. However, the Shabab did not escalate as fast as I thought they would, and they seemed to be targeting Kenyan forces on the border, and most likely were behind or had knowledge of the kidnappings which the Kenyans claim made them invade southern Somalia.

Kenya’s entry into the region has been a dream come true for the Shabab hardliners who had been calling for terrorist attacks inside Kenya. I believe given the high number of Kenyan fighters within the Shabab, the group have a high chance of launching sustained terrorist attacks inside the country.

The group have also been getting a lot of popular support, with huge demonstrations held in southern Somalia against the Kenyan invasion. Opposing the Kenyan invasion is not only the Shabab and their supporters, but most – if not all – nationalists oppose it, including many members of the Somali Parliament, and the TFG President himself who called for talks with the group, perhaps having been disheartened by the uninvited incursion into southern Somalia by Kenya. The popular support the group is getting is the biggest boost the group had gotten in recent times, thanks to the Kenyan government.

With all the announcements that Kenya has been making gains in towns just across the border, the invasion is going at a very slow pace. Compare this to Ethiopia’s entry into Somalia in 2006, in which they took about ten times the area Kenya has taken in the same period of time (a week), and yet withdrew without achieving none of their goals (if their goal was to make the TFG control ONLY Mogadishu and lose the rest of their territories, including Baidoa which was the seat of the Parliament, then it was a success).

The Kenyans may take very long to take their stated objective of Kismayo if they go ahead with their plans, but will take a lot of casualties. And as soon as they withdraw, the Shabab will just retake the city. TFG forces are notorious for not holding territories without foreign military presence.

In Kenya, the Somali population is already being singled out as potential terrorists. This would have been a great idea had the Shabab’s foreign arm (the guys who did the Kampala attacks) been full of ethnic Somalis. Most of the Kenyans in the Shabab are not ethnic Somalis, as the UN Monitoring Group report indicates.

The only thing that can come out of this misadventure is the elevation of terrorist risks to Kenya, the destruction of her already hurt tourism industry, and the wrongful detention of many a Somali in Kenya.

The sooner Kenya withdraws her troops, the better for everyone in the region.

http://insidetheinsurgency.wordpress.co ... -invasion/

[ToughGong]

in early 1990s, a consultant to the UNO on Somalia, advised the USA administration to attempt everything else but not war with Somalis, in his opinion; war is the thing Somalis know best. The USA did not heed to that precious advice and we all remember the way that campaign went wrong – it ended with the famous Black hawk down and that was the last USA chapter of waging war in Somalia – at least an open and all out ground war. That UNO consultant is called Mr. John Drysdale. He knew the closing stages of the campaign even before it was waged. He was not a fortune teller; Mr. Drysdale was some one who had first hand experience of what Somalis are capable to accomplishing in the war field. He was the British administrator of Somaliland more than four decades prior to the debut of that campaign.

The Ethiopians were not dissuaded by the USA experience in Somalia. They did not either learn much from their centuries-old wars with Somalis and with the help of the USA air power, they too attacked and captured Mogadishu, but their victory did not last for too long and they were also compelled to a humiliating withdrawal after Somalis taught them a lesson in urban and guerrilla warfare.
Now it appears that the Kenyans did not learn much about the history of Somali warfare. In my opinion they too have made very bad miscalculations and do not understand that all Somalis are not the murderous Al-shabaab group and the Transitional Federal government. The Somali population is not the weak and famine-devastated thousands that live in refugee camps in the Northern Frontier district (NFD), which it self is a Somali region given to Kenya in the early sixties, after Kenya gained its independence from Britain. NFD is one of the five Somali territories represented in the star on the Somalia flag. Besides NFD, the other four Somali territories are Somalia, The Republic of Djibouti, The self administered Somali region in Ethiopia and the Republic of Somaliland.

The Kenyans fancy to believe that they could win a war and defeat Somalis, it is passable for them to accept as true what they believe, but the truth of the matter is they are playing with inextinguishable fire – a greater Somali fire. By starting a war in this region can easily instigating Somalis to reclaim their Northern Frontier District (NFD). Therefore, I brotherly advise the Kenyans to withdraw immediately before Somalis beat the drums of war, believe me that will not be a good sign for the Kenyans. To give you an example of what that could mean; the recent Kenyan civil unrest will feel just like a picnic in warm summer day on Mount Kilimanjaro.

Since its independence from Italy, Somalia is wounded by civil war, famine, terrorism and corrupt incompetent consecutive regimes, but Somalis are far from death and are strong enough to inflict an ever lasting damage to an aggressor. They are also blessed with Muslim and Arab brethren, who will not hesitate to assist them to rebel all enemies from all Somali territories.
Kenyans have no business crossing the borders to Somalia; it is illegal under International law and it is morally wrong. If they have beef with Al-Shabaab then they must fight them in their own territory and not inside Somalia. Kenyans must not arrogantly over estimate their economic and military power and must keep in mind, that only Somalis are capable of defeating Somalis and no body else. They must bear in mind that their country is very easily susceptible to be fractured through ethnic and tribal lines. By starting a war with Somalis Kenyan economy and tourist industry can be devastated within hours. It must realize that it can not win the wars lost by super powers. Kenya must not be fooled by the guys who call themselves the TFG of Somalia; these guys lack morality, education, experience and live their lives under the protection of the Ugandan forces tanks in their home – Mogadishu. They can be bought and sold in a junk yard. If the Kenyans trust the strategic analysis of these TFG guys then they are deficient in judgement.
Somalis know too well the illegal Somalia territorial water’s concession made to Kenya by the illegal and morally corrupt TFG. Somalis are aware of the Azania project that is established by Kenyans through a mercenary force headed by Mr. Gandi, a power Hungary opportunist. Somalis quite appreciate Kenya’s geopolitical ambitions, both short and long term strategies. By looking at realities on the ground, these Kenyan dreams are far from becoming true. Kenyans politicians must clear their heads of the myths and wrong assumptions. They are not able to conquer more territories from Somalis, but instead the Northern Frontier District might go back to hands of Somalis.
In recent years Kenya was enrich with not only the looting of the Somalia’s International assistance through the NGOs operated mafia that consider the humanitarian assistance, war and drought confounded Somalis as their personal spoils of war. Not only that, but Kenya is also benefiting from Somalis who bring with them capital, technical and business expertise to that corruption riddle East African country. Somalis have both directly & indirectly created jobs for millions of Kenyans. Thus, Kenya benefited from Somalia more than any country in the world. For those simple reasons, Kenyans should be grateful to the Somalis and must not try to slaughter the goose that laid the golden eggs. Kenyans and for that matter any other neighbouring country must think twice before they venture to play with Somali fire; it will never die very easily. Somalis might consider moving their businesses and investments from Kenya to neighbouring Republic of Somaliland and The Republic of Djibouti. Both Somaliland and Djibouti are eager to receive their Somali brethren and their investments with open hearts. The United Nations and the donor countries might also consider moving their offices to the more peaceful and politically stable Somaliland, since Kenya is not able to provide security to the foreign diplomats, expatriates and tourists in its country.

[TheblueNwhite]

Nightmare for residents as war pushes up prices

Prices of most foodstuff and other commodities have significantly gone up.

Supplies such as sugar, rice, cooking fat and powdered milk that have been finding their way into Kenya through Kismayu, which is a free port.

They come from the Middle East as well as Asia and Europe and they are usually sold cheaply.

Even electronic goods and vehicles are normally cheaply available in border towns like Liboi in Garissa, Elwak in Mandera and Hulugho in Ijara district.

Some of these goods are eventually smuggled into towns like Garissa, Mwingi, Thika and even Eastleigh and other areas in Nairobi.

But since the border was closed, transporters can no longer risk their vehicles on the cutline roads used to ferry such goods.

The roads are now being patrolled by security forces to curb entry of Al-Shabaab insurgents into the country.

Nonetheless, some leaders in North Eastern Province are asking the government not to interfere with operations at Kismayu port once they take it over from the Al-Shabaab.

Before the military operation started two weeks ago, a kilogramme of sugar used to cost between Sh60 and Sh70 in the border towns. Today the same kilogramme costs more than Sh250.

Poor roads network

“I used to buy a bag of 50- kilogrammes of sugar at Sh3,850 but I am now shocked because those who have old stocks left are selling the same amount to us at Sh12,000,” said Mr Dubow Abdi, a trader at Liboi trading centre.

He does not expect the old stocks to last for long. “Soon we shall have no sugar left in our stocks,” the trader said in an interview at his shop.
Currently, it is hard to come across a bag of rice in most of the border towns and it has now to be bought from Nairobi.

And due to poor roads network, the commodity is now scarce. A kilogramme that used to retail at less than Sh100 goes for as much as Sh400.

It is the same thing with cooking oil, which would cost Mr Adbi Sh1,700 for 20 litres.

Rice is a popular diet in this arid region of northern Kenya and people are now worried if they will ever get another chance of obtaining it cheaply.

“We are asking the government to ensure that trade between Kismayu and towns of North Eastern Province continues if they happen to capture the port from the hands of the Al-Shabaab rebels. The port has been our lifeline,” said Liboi councillor Bishar Gure, who is also a trader.

He said Somalis across the border have been flocking into Kenya to buy goods like soap, beddings, liquid paraffin and diesel, which are not available in their country.

“They have been enhancing our trade and so we are feeling the effects of this military operation,” said Mr Gure, who is among the people supporting the decision by the Kenyan military to help Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government forces to get rid of the Al-Shabaab.
Closing of the Kenya-Somali border is also being felt by livestock traders.

“There are several animals from the Kenyan side still in Somalia after the border was closed and we are now suffering scarcity of animals like goats,” says a livestock trader, Mr Noor Omar.

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Nightmare+ ... index.html

[TheblueNwhite]

Kenya’s Somali mission causes a devastating blowback at home

For 20 years, Somalia has been a deadly quagmire for foreign troops: American, Ethiopian, even Canadian. Now another country, Kenya, is learning the risks of sending soldiers into one of the world’s most dangerous and war-torn states.

Less than two weeks after ordering hundreds of its troops across the Somali border in a bold military offensive, Kenya is already seeing a rising toll in collateral damage. Three grenade attacks inside Kenya, including one on Thursday, have killed five civilians and injured scores more in suspected retaliatory attacks by Somali militants and their allies.

The grenade attacks will inflict severe damage on Kenya’s tourism industry, a key sector of the economy. Foreign embassies have issued warnings to travellers to stay away from the East African country, and hotels in Nairobi are already seeing cancellations. The kidnapping of four Western aid workers and tourists by Somali gunmen in Kenya has further damaged the tourism industry.

The Kenyan invasion is also hampering refugee movements and aid deliveries by the international famine relief effort, which is trying to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in southern and central Somalia, where up to 80,000 people have already died. The number of Somali refugees reaching Kenya has plunged dramatically, from an average of about 1,000 daily last month to just 100 a day this week.

“Escalating fighting across the south of Somalia is making it even more difficult for our partners to safely deliver life-saving support to children and their families,” said Elhadj As Sy, a senior official of Unicef, the United Nations fund for children.

As for the military offensive itself, it has become bogged down in heavy rains and mud in southern Somalia, with few gains except empty desert so far. Despite logistical support from France and its own tanks and warplanes, Kenya’s troops have still not captured their first key target, the strategic town of Afmadow, 100 kilometres from the Kenyan border, where the Somali militant group al-Shabab is preparing its defences.

The Kenyan forces clashed with al-Shabab fighters on Thursday for the first time. Kenya said it killed nine al-Shabab insurgents and suffered two injuries on its own side.

“The history of recent foreign military interventions in Somalia is universally bad,” said Roger Middleton, an Africa analyst at the Chatham House think tank in London. “Foreign troops entering Somalia have often left behind a situation that is worse than the one they sought to improve.”

The United States withdrew its forces from Somalia in 1994 after the notorious Black Hawk Down battle, where 18 of its soldiers were killed in the bloodiest U.S. combat loss since Vietnam. Canada pulled its troops out of Somalia after revelations that some of its soldiers had participated in the torture and beating death of a Somali civilian.

In 2006, Ethiopia sent thousands of its troops into Somalia, but failed to pacify the country. Instead the invasion strengthened the influence of the Islamist radicals of al-Shabab, who gained control of southern Somalia and Mogadishu after the Ethiopians pulled out.

The Islamist militants, who have links to al-Qaeda, had vowed to take revenge in Kenya after Kenya launched its invasion. Last week, the U.S. government warned of “an imminent threat of terrorist attacks” at malls and nightclubs in Kenya. And then the grenade attacks began.

On Monday, one person was killed and scores were injured in two grenade attacks at a bus stop and a bar in Nairobi. Two days later, a Kenyan man pleaded guilty to one of the attacks and identified himself as a member of al-Shabab. The attacks show how the Somalia conflict is spilling across borders and mutating into hit-and-run terrorist tactics.

On Thursday, in the latest attack, heavily armed gunmen in northern Kenya ambushed a civilian vehicle with rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns, killing four people, including a school teacher and a government official. Al-Shabab militants were again the suspected culprits.

One of al-Shabab’s senior leaders, Sheik Muktar Robow, said on Thursday that he is telling militants in Kenya to launch bombing attacks. “A hand grenade is nothing,” he told hundreds of Shabab supporters in a rally near Mogadishu. “We want you to carry out big painful blows to Kenya.”

Last week, al-Shabab publicly displayed the bodies of dozens of soldiers that it claimed to have killed in Mogadishu, including many Burundians from an African Union peacekeeping mission. In an attempt to portray the conflict as a religious war, they displayed Bibles and crucifixes from the Burundian soldiers.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le2216609/

[accident]

They are shooting themselves in the foot.