Who Won The Somali Civil War?
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:55 am
Lets start with Casualties?
Hawiye is no 1 on here. They've lost millions of people of people for the past 21 years. Isaaq will follow next who lost quite a considerable in 88-94-and on-going wars with puntland somewhere around 50-60 thousand mark. Rahanweyn lost up to half a million since 91 till today. Darods lost the least amount from 1991 till today. little skermishes here and there like kismayo battle and few thousands in 91-93 war I wouldn't say anymore then 5-10 thousand at tops if even that.
What about Political Success Who's gain the most?
I think this one is hard to assess. From 1991-2004 its pretty much been a hawiye game. I think the darods will win eventually with the correct politics happening especially with federalism and strong punt to the north and strong azania to the south and we been getting our president or pm spot in hamar and have our regional mamuls in punt, nfd, ogadenia, now azania. I think rahanweynes are also winners with controlling the parliament which is where shit gets decided. Isaaqs are the major losers no recognition for 20 years and none coming anytime soon and they don't really have much in the tfg and with federalism they are going to be winners.
Peace and Stability
Isaaqs have this hands down its relatively peaceful and stable with not much skermishes. 2nd would be Darods can get a bit excited but quickly dies down due to strong isimos. The most troublesome city is kismayo and this a video of it couple of years ago and looks ok to me lacks investment for obvious reasons abdiwahab next door
The third spot would go to rahanweyns and the last the hawiye.
Development, Living Standards, Business
I think this would go to darods Bosaso is definitely the business hub of Somalia and has huge developments happening private and infrasructure. Other darod cities arent that bad to as far as living standards is concerned but their isnt much development happening there either with the exception of garissa, las anod, and small extent badhan which ironically all have some sort of mamul. Gedo/jubba is doing the worst but I think Azania will change that. After that will be isaaqs mainly hargeisa and burco with hargeisa having business but living standard is where they fall to the ground as far as im concerned. Development is very far and between its only weekly u hear new masharic but every 3 months if that. Rahanweynes havent really done much with baydhabo due to abdiwahab being close by to destroy it. And last spot is hawiye mogadishu speaks for itself and the exodus happening there.
So I think in most categories the Darods have won this war. Have their own regional mamuls, still big part of the tfg with either the no 1 or 2 posts and their cities arent doing all that bad either. One thing though is stability is not at par with somaliland.
Isaaqs have lost out politically no recognition coming ever and in the tfg they are nothing, living standards are really bad but it has vibrant business community in hargeisa and development is not that much but over 20 years with a project here and there every three months they managed to make hargeisa look good burco however is ugly to me. But they win hands down with peace thats where they really outshined the rest of somalia.
The hawiye oh my favourite mr abdiwahab. An absolute failure in all aspects of peace, development, living standards. Politically you still lose even if ur president of a tfg government because federalism its based on regions and hawiye only have 4 where darod have 7. And even ur 4 regions u will be sub-divided into two regions because u need 2 gobols to form a mamul. So u will come into the federal parliament with 2 states covering each one covering 2 regions of somalia, Darod will come with 2 states of somalia one covering 2 regions of jubba/gedo the other puntland bari/mudug/nugal/sool/sanag. 7 regions. We will have 40% stake in the parliament. We will just use rahanweyne who will have two states to swing in our favor for anything we want u will need to get not only rahanweyn but isaaq combined to get majority in parliament
Hawiye is no 1 on here. They've lost millions of people of people for the past 21 years. Isaaq will follow next who lost quite a considerable in 88-94-and on-going wars with puntland somewhere around 50-60 thousand mark. Rahanweyn lost up to half a million since 91 till today. Darods lost the least amount from 1991 till today. little skermishes here and there like kismayo battle and few thousands in 91-93 war I wouldn't say anymore then 5-10 thousand at tops if even that.
What about Political Success Who's gain the most?
I think this one is hard to assess. From 1991-2004 its pretty much been a hawiye game. I think the darods will win eventually with the correct politics happening especially with federalism and strong punt to the north and strong azania to the south and we been getting our president or pm spot in hamar and have our regional mamuls in punt, nfd, ogadenia, now azania. I think rahanweynes are also winners with controlling the parliament which is where shit gets decided. Isaaqs are the major losers no recognition for 20 years and none coming anytime soon and they don't really have much in the tfg and with federalism they are going to be winners.
Peace and Stability
Isaaqs have this hands down its relatively peaceful and stable with not much skermishes. 2nd would be Darods can get a bit excited but quickly dies down due to strong isimos. The most troublesome city is kismayo and this a video of it couple of years ago and looks ok to me lacks investment for obvious reasons abdiwahab next door
The third spot would go to rahanweyns and the last the hawiye.
Development, Living Standards, Business
I think this would go to darods Bosaso is definitely the business hub of Somalia and has huge developments happening private and infrasructure. Other darod cities arent that bad to as far as living standards is concerned but their isnt much development happening there either with the exception of garissa, las anod, and small extent badhan which ironically all have some sort of mamul. Gedo/jubba is doing the worst but I think Azania will change that. After that will be isaaqs mainly hargeisa and burco with hargeisa having business but living standard is where they fall to the ground as far as im concerned. Development is very far and between its only weekly u hear new masharic but every 3 months if that. Rahanweynes havent really done much with baydhabo due to abdiwahab being close by to destroy it. And last spot is hawiye mogadishu speaks for itself and the exodus happening there.
So I think in most categories the Darods have won this war. Have their own regional mamuls, still big part of the tfg with either the no 1 or 2 posts and their cities arent doing all that bad either. One thing though is stability is not at par with somaliland.
Isaaqs have lost out politically no recognition coming ever and in the tfg they are nothing, living standards are really bad but it has vibrant business community in hargeisa and development is not that much but over 20 years with a project here and there every three months they managed to make hargeisa look good burco however is ugly to me. But they win hands down with peace thats where they really outshined the rest of somalia.
The hawiye oh my favourite mr abdiwahab. An absolute failure in all aspects of peace, development, living standards. Politically you still lose even if ur president of a tfg government because federalism its based on regions and hawiye only have 4 where darod have 7. And even ur 4 regions u will be sub-divided into two regions because u need 2 gobols to form a mamul. So u will come into the federal parliament with 2 states covering each one covering 2 regions of somalia, Darod will come with 2 states of somalia one covering 2 regions of jubba/gedo the other puntland bari/mudug/nugal/sool/sanag. 7 regions. We will have 40% stake in the parliament. We will just use rahanweyne who will have two states to swing in our favor for anything we want u will need to get not only rahanweyn but isaaq combined to get majority in parliament