Shabaab's tactics working?

[DUFAAN_]

Ahlusunna Waljamaaca oo sheegay in degmada Ceelbuur ay uga soo baxeen sababo la xiriira qaabkii dagaalka oo ay bedeleen


Sabti, June 16, 2012 (HOL) — Ururka Ahlusunna Waljamaaca ayaa sheegay inay bedeleen qaabkii ay kula dagaalami jireen Al-shabaab, taasna ay keentay inay isaga soo baxaan deegaanno ka tirsan gobolkaas oo ay ka mid tahay degmada Ceelbuur.

Afhayeenka Ahlusunna ee gobollada dhexe, Sheekh Axmed Cabdullaahi Ilka-Case ayaa sheegay inaysan uga soo bixin degmada Ceelbuur khilaaf soo dhexgalay iyaga iyo ciidamada Ahlusunna iyo culeys ay kala kulmeen Al-shabaab, balse ay ku timid is-bedel ay ku sameeyeen qaabka ay kula dagaalamaan Al-shabaab.

"Sababihii aan uga soo baxnay degmada Ceelbuur iyo deegaanka Wabxo waxay la xiriirtaa qorshihii dagaalka oo aan bedelnay, waayo xoogaggii halkaas ku sugnaa ee Al-shabaab waxay billaabeen inay iyagoo shan-shan u socda ay weeraraan goobihii aan ku sugnayn," ayuu yiri Sheekh Axmed Ilka-Case.

Afhayeenku wuxuu hadalkiisa ku daray in qorshihii ay ku qabseen degmada Ceelbuur iyo deegaannada kale ee gobolkaas ay ahayd sidii ay u naafeyn lahaayeen wuxuu ugu yeeray cadowga, balse ay taasi suurigeli waday ayna go'aansadeen saraakiisha hoggaanka ciidanku in la bedelo qorshaha dagaal si loo dhabar-jabiyo mar kale.

"Al-shabaab waxay noqotay qodax dhulka ku mudan, taasna ayaana keentay inay khuburada milateriga ee Ahlusunna ku taliyaan in laga baxo deegaannadaas si waji kale loogu yeelo dagaalka looguna dhabar-jabiyo cadowga," ayuu yiri afhayeenka raaciyay hadalkiisa.

Mar uu ka jawaabayay su'aal ahayd in maamulka Ahlusunna iyo ciidamada Itoobiya ee gobollada dhexe ku sugan uu khilaaf u dhexeeyo, ayuu sheegay inuusan jirin wax khilaaf ah oo u dhexeeya, ayna ka mideysan yihiin sidii Al-shabaab loo cirib-tiri lahaa.

Ugu dambeyn, afhayeenku wuxuu sheegay inay taageersan yihiin dowladda KMG ah ayna ka mideysan yihiin sidii dalka loo gaarsiin lahaa dowlad dhameystiran looguna soo celin lahaa ammaankii iyo kala dambeyntii.

Maxamed Xaaji Xuseen, Hiiraan Online
maxuseen@hiiraan.com
Muqdisho, Soomaaliya

[blackstars25]

can you briefly translate

[Advo]

[Colonel]

AS is the strongest, most effective & disciplined Somali group by far, I believe they should focus all their attention to Xamar and Hutu regions as this is where 99% of the chaos has been happening for the last 20 years. In the mean time we could look after the Jubbas for them abd indeed we are a fair people

[NoAngst.]

^And you play for which team? Don't tell me kooxda Cagdheer? No! You can't be hapless cagdheer, are you?

[Colonel]

I am indeed of House Absame, are you a hutu?

[NoAngst.]

I'm the Common Wealth of Mudulood... and I have special nack for sniffing out hapless Cagdheer.

[DarthSomali]

Their tactics in Ceelbuur worked fine for them because of one important reason:
The murusade and duduble clans are diehard alshabaab supporters, even the ones who claim to hate alshabaab are closet alshabaab supporters.

But why is this not working in Baidoa???
I though raxanweyn were also diehard supporters, even called ansaar. Is it that they cannot fight? Is it that they do not want to fight inside Baidoa? Is it that they were not really alshabaab supporters? God knows!

As for beledweyne, its not working for two reasons:
1) its close to ethiopian borders
2) Xawaadle are larger than gaaljecel and baadicadde, also xawaadle are still angry at alshabaab for massacring 80 innocent xawaadlenese (Cumar Xaashi aun etc). So even though most attacks in Beledweyne are carried out by Gaaljecel & baadicadde, most hawaadle support Dooxada Shabelle government & ethiopians.


In Xamar, Alshabaab lost the sympathy of the hutus living there. Abgaal 60% do not support alshabab, HG Cayr in Ceelasha biyaha are alshabaabists but the real cayr power is located in Guriceel and they are not pro-alshabab. HG Sacad never supported alshabaab. Saruur's opinion is not important. Saleebaan are salafis divided in two camps, some of them support shabaab and some of them are madkhali salafis like Sh.C/Qaadir Cali Cumar. The Madkhali salafis seem to be the majority.

[Colonel]

@Noangst, a secular hutu? now that's something which is not seen everyday

Bodyguard of Imam Hutuking, that is a very good report i must say however i'd like to hear your opinion on the possibility of negotiations between AS and the Dothraki Sea. Is it impossible or do you see it happening in the near future?

[DarthSomali]

Negotiations between AS and the most feared group the Dothraki Hutus is most likely to happen before the end of this year.
I dreamed about peace talks between Abu Mansur, Aweys and the Dothrakis.

If this doesnt happen then truly i do not deserve to be Bodyguard of Imam As-Saadiq Hutuking hafidullaah.

[Colonel]

Bodyguard of Imam Hutuking, if the Dothraki Sea and AS in the Somali Peninsula allied together certainly this would be an army that is of those which are fearsome.

In the fertile Southern lands we also hope that Sheikh Modobe and Al Imam Al Sheikh Hassan Turki come to the negotiating table as leadership is given to the natives of House Absame.

This will certainly be an interesting season for many plays will be made, some more cunning than others.

[abgaalKING]

AS is the strongest, most effective & disciplined Somali group by far, I believe they should focus all their attention to Xamar and Hutu regions as this is where 99% of the chaos has been happening for the last 20 years. In the mean time we could look after the Jubbas for them abd indeed we are a fair people

What Makes you think hawiye doesnt live in jubbas and plays no role there? are you burying your head on the sand son?