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Its not about the candidates, it depends on the situations. This helps boost the chances of certain subclans while pening others down. certain subclans have more chances within their clan but haven't within the other clans, certain subclans haven't within their clan but have within the other clans as lesser of the two evils. Certain subclans have the backing of the neighbouring stake holders while others don't.
Shaykh sharif is definetly all set to exit the window and the IGAD man is on his way.

it's really about who moves up from the first round. As many candidates as there are, it's going to a small margin of who will move up. And then, the committee has to decide how they are going to deal with people who get tied votes etc. I'm really interested to know know how they are going to set up the election process it is not going to be easy.

Perfect_Order wrote:it's really about who moves up from the first round. As many candidates as there are, it's going to a small margin of who will move up. And then, the committee has to decide how they are going to deal with people who get tied votes etc. I'm really interested to know know how they are going to set up the election process it is not going to be easy.

My post is not about the voting, its about wich subclan has more chances.

lol @ igad man. Sxb, you have not presented a coherent analysis of the political situation on the ground, so forgive me if I don't take everything you say seriously. My post had to do with what candidates within sub clans have the best chance of full support. As it stands, there is a lot of division on the subclan level.

Djibouti support sh sharif

Kenya supports abdiweli gaas

Ethiopia its self is in some sort of transition and we don't know their candidate yet

Sudan Supports sh sharif

Uganda supports sh sharif

But thats just regional support at the end the Parliament will do it with the help of the so called international community (EU&US) who are very much involved.

Perfect_Order wrote:lol @ igad man. Sxb, you have not presented a coherent analysis of the political situation on the ground, so forgive me if I don't take everything you say seriously. My post had to do with what candidates within sub clans have the best chance of full support. As it stands, there is a lot of division on the subclan level.

You don't know really how the somali politics work, somalia doesn't exist anymore. Isn't the east african mahiga somalias president? is not the somalis army an east african army?
What you don't know is that uganda is asking beelaha xamar to close whatever candidates are running and to leave one candidate. Kenya is merging sharif hassan with abdi wali. Thus he has 100 votes including harti and ogadeens.. So before you could think of the votes think of the situations that makes the votes.
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Those are numbers that you are just pulling out of your ass. As it stands as of now, no one has a strong political base to lean on, no one really knows which mps are voting for who. Sharif Sakin has really hurt the status he has had with digil iyo mirifle, and now I believe they themselves are not as consolidated as they were once, and will be vying for new alliances and new opportunities. Like I said, what is going to determine the presidential election is going to be the system that is being devised right now by the election committee. It can't be as simple as three rounds, top 8 from first round, top four from the second, and top two for the final round. So, let us see what the election committee comes up with. Then we will look at which candidates are running, thats when we have a better idea of who has the best chances.

Perfect_Order wrote:Those are numbers that you are just pulling out of your ass. As it stands as of now, no one has a strong political base to lean on, no one really knows which mps are voting for who. Sharif Sakin has really hurt the status he has had with digil iyo mirifle, and now I believe they themselves are not as consolidated as they were once, and will be vying for new alliances and new opportunities. Like I said, what is going to determine the presidential election is going to be the system that is being devised right now by the election committee. It can't be as simple as three rounds, top 8 from first round, top four from the second, and top two for the final round. So, let us see what the election committee comes up with. Then we will look at which candidates are running, thats when we have a better idea of who has the best chances.

Sharif hassan has his clan, they didn't let him down, like he said it was the others who have pushed us into this place. he Will lead his clan as a strong minister like he use to do back when sh madoowe was the speaker. gaas only dreams to be president and is ok with sh hassan having an important ministership. This is the deal. So, besides sh hassan you got harti and ogadeen who will work for their azanian dream with abdiwali. This is what is going on now and its not less then 100 votes. On the other hand there is the ugandan camp who working to back one candidate. Basically igad vs igad!