Disclaimer: This is not an attack on Darod nor is this a beneficial to Hawiye who oppose Federalism.
The President seems to have accepted Federalism is the law of the land and the basis of the consitution of Somalia (although I sense he may not like it) but the President has very legitimate and much needed views about the process to implement it. I was actually impressed; personally I think he studied up on the American consitutional making process.
p.s. He pretty much subconsciously hinted the future states with his for example about Jubbaland, Bay/Bakool/Lower Shabelle, Hiiraan/Middle Shabelle, etc.
As I got from the president's words, Federalism will not work because of our mindset of federalism and if we insist on because of qabiil interest then there will be no SOMALIA.
Are there even formal discussions between any of provinces to form into a federal state? Everything has been limited so far to only "Jubbaland" and even those talks are unofficial and doesn't look like it is going anywhere. There are even reports of Gedo not joining "Jubbaland" anymore. I think all the evidence is there to suggest that many of the provinces in Somalia are uneasy with federalism, and this doesn't exclude the people in the Jubbas+Gedo.
The only ones that benefit from federalism are Puntland and Rahanweyns and only Galmudug a little bit at the moment. I am not even sure how Galmudug was allowed to become a federal state; it doesn't complete the merging of 2 full province requirement. Hiiraan politics itself is very divided itself so its unthinkable how they would join with another province. No one can say with a straight face that Jubbas+Gedo will be able to merge without any problems (it can possibly take years before anything happens and it possibly wont even happen). How are Galgaduud and Hiiraan going to join if there are two states already claiming their parts of the former province as their own states? Don't you need two full provinces to merge? XX and Galmudug are certainly not going to disappear anytime soon.
You might think that federalism is not what Hawiyes want which is obvious but don't think for a second that Hawiyes are the only ones who are in trouble here. You are just as screwed in the Jubbas+Gedo. The Dhulbahantes and Warsangeli are also screwed. If they are successful in their current campaign, how will they join with these dumb requirements in the future? The only parties that benefit this is Puntland and the Rahanweyns. Galmudug benefits at the moment but they will have to address their issue soon enough so I won't include them with Puntland or Bay/Bakool.
The constitution was written way too fast and obviously written by only one party. 75% of the country is screwed. Federalism only benefits the Rahanweyn and 1 sub clan of Darod, not all of them.
Federalism is the law of the land. The President is uneasy about it but he has accepted that fact not that I think he, the Prime Minsiter, or Speaker of Parliament can speak against it. It is the basis of the consitution that makes them legitimate.
The issue in question is the process and that is what he spent the whole time talking about.
He spoke at lengths about the rule of law governing the process of forming such stats and what the relationship between Federal States and Federal Government is. Being an ardent supporter and admirer of American federalism, I thought the president was quite legitimate in his views.
He basically said we came from a heavily centralized system of government since 1960 and that is what we are used to, Federalism will have to be designed so we can understand it as a nation and he said that the Parliament should be in carge of this which are all legitimate statements.
p.s. Galmudug is an organized entity, it is not a federal state. It's participation in the consitution making process of the Garowe Principles made it apparent it did not hold the distinction of "federal state" (due of course primarily because it is not two or more states).
There is no capital city....only a subclan city.....only someone from that clan can become a viable president.
The regions see no reason to subvert their interest to another clan in xamar.