Is the MAP of Govt/Al-Shabab controlled areas correct?

[Cumar-Labasuul]

I'm not entirely sure of what areas alshabab still control, almost all of the major cities/towns are in the hands of the govt and their AU allies, however do AS still controll the villages between them cities/towns?

[Brobaganda]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Somal ... tricts.png

Jowhar was recently liberated so ignore what is on this map in regards to Jowhar. The troops are 30KM north of Jowhar now heading towards southern Hiiraan.

Al Shabab controls whatever their color is but the villages don't have a large Al Shabab presence. It looks like Al Shabab still controls a lot of the south but most of it is empty grazing lands. once you take control of one town, you find that you end up controlling the grazing lands from all sides. al shabab is done in a few months

[Cumar-Labasuul]

The map you posted was made by our friend jaymis dhal, I'm sure he doesn't know more than we do. And what is that narrow strip in baay that AS control.
On his map he has buurdhuubo in blue, however it is still in the hands of shabab as well as baardheere and most of J. Dhexe.

[Brobaganda]

Actually, this specific one with the October date wasn't created by him. It was created by someone else. The narrow strip indicates that Shabab is still in that town and in the surrounding areas but the surrounding areas are empty lands. Its not like they have a presence in the outskirts. Once SNA takes that town, the surrounding areas will go blue and not only the town itself. It's just empty land.

as for your last sentence, I am not entirely sure.

[Cumar-Labasuul]

yeah thing is shabab were mostly in control of main towns so in retrospect the whole deegaan would look like they were in control. When the govt captures those towns then what use is the bush to shabab.
I too am unsure of the specifics but I know for sure AS control jilib, jamaame, bardheere and baraawe

[AbdiWahab252]

It would be more like a Swiss Cheese map with the small city islands being Govt Controlled settlements (large urban areas) in a sea of Shabab. The long term strategy of the two sides are different:

1. Al Shabab

a) To revert to being a irregular fighting force who will focus on asymmetric warfare
b) Wear down the FG, AMISOM forces by harassing their logistic lines and combating them in the rural areas a shift from direct urban warfare
c) Raise funds through taxation of land based trade & living off the rural areas
d) Propaganda war highlighting the failures of the FG and AMISOm to provide basic security and law & order in the areas they control
e) Wait out AMISOM's mandate and hope for donor fatigue to fund AMISOM forever especially when they fail to see the FG delivering on good governance,
and establishment of a strong Somali national police and defense force.

2. FG and AMISOM

a) Deny Shabab major urban centers - Great short term strategy to boost moral and get more funding
b) Avoid rapid expansion of territorial gains to avoid being too stretched out
c) Establish local government bodies to fill Shabab vacuum.


Shabab is losing the battle with the FG/AMISOM having the momentum but the long term out look will be a protracted war with no clear winners except for
the side that is willing to wait it out.

The sole wild card now is the FG's ability to develop strong local administrations to combat Al Shabab, provide essential judicial security services and establishing
a unified, professional military/police force to take more of AMISOM's role. AMISOM may become an obstacle for the FG as they are not looking forward to the day
that they can leave SOmalia as its been an easy paycheck and source of political clout for their Presidents. This is in stark contrast with Afghanistan or Iraq where the Western powers had their men on the ground fighting the war and were eager to pack up and turn over control to Afghan and Iraqi forces. In Somalia, the fight against Shabab as largely been outsourced to the AU who are quite content with staying on for as long as the dollars flow. Meanwhile, even if the FG wants to take a larger role in fighting Shabab and providing its own security, AMISOM will definitely see no incentive to help out as they would work themselves out of jobs.