The centre holds, but only just

[Guul13]

The new government in Mogadishu has yet to prove its mettle

AT THE end of the colonial era Somalia was arguably in ethnic terms the most homogeneous country in sub-Saharan Africa. The nearest to it was probably Botswana, which is four-fifths Tswana—and turned out to be peaceful and prosperous, suggesting to some that countries populated and run by a single big tribe have a better chance of stability than those with a hotch-potch of smaller ones.

Somalia, however, became a byword for conflict, poverty and ungovernability. Yet its ethnic homogeneity is misleading. Despite also sharing a single language and religion, it is divided into more than 500 clans and sub-clans, who are notoriously fractious and competitive. This, as well as their largely nomadic way of life, has made many Somalis fiercely loth to accept the edicts of a central government.

The last man to exert real authority from the capital, Mogadishu, was a military dictator, Siad Barre, who was ousted in 1991. His downfall was the cue for two decades of civil war. Can the country’s latest president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who was elected by parliament last September, do any better, while using democratic methods?

So far, so good. An uneasy peace holds in much of Somalia, thanks largely to a promise of federalism and decentralised power. Under the prodding of Britain, which has been leading a foreign push to put Somalia on its feet again, the new government accepts that the half a dozen or so of Somalia’s fiefs that enjoy a measure of autonomy should be given their head—and should be only gradually drawn back, if possible, into accepting central authority. So far the mosaic of clans, with their shifting alliances, have mainly held back from openly challenging Mr Mohamud’s government while they wait to see how resources and authority will be shared.

But Mohamed Omar, the foreign minister of Somaliland, a northern breakaway from the rump of Somalia, says the government in Mogadishu has achieved little despite its international backing. Both Somaliland and Puntland, a semi-autonomous north-eastern region, cold-shouldered a grand international conference on Somalia in London on May 7th. “The days when Somalia could be governed from the centre are over,” he said. “Anyone who brings them back will not bring peace.”

A former university dean and civil-rights activist, Mr Mohamud is well liked by foreign governments. In London they pledged $300m in aid in return for his promise of a “new Somalia”. But at home his writ only runs in the areas controlled by forces (mostly Ugandans, Kenyans and Ethiopians) under the aegis of the African Union. He is being closely watched for any signs of breaching his federal pledge.

Some worry that big tasks, such as completing a new constitution, outlining how power will be shared and setting up commissions to define boundaries and electoral systems, have yet to begin. Matt Bryden, a Canadian who runs Sahan Research, a Somali-oriented think-tank in Nairobi, notes that “none of the work has been done towards federalism,” letting critics allege that the government is more centralist than it admits. They fret that the new security forces and police will be dominated by Mr Mohamud’s powerful Hawiye clan.

Abdi Aynte, the head of the Heritage Institute, a think-tank based in Somalia, complains that too many conspiracy theories abound. The president has no hidden agenda, he says, and “an incredibly hard job”. Still, some of Mr Mohamud’s opponents in rival clans are still backing the Shabab, the armed Islamists linked to al-Qaeda that previously dominated the country, to destabilise him. In the past month, scores of people were killed in two Shabab suicide-attacks in Mogadishu.

The United States, which has spent $1.5 billion channelled through the African Union to bring better security, and Britain, which promised another $280m in aid this week, are keen to take credit for gains in Somalia. “Somalia has begun a rapid recovery in the last year,” said Justine Greening, Britain’s development minister, at the conference. “But this will be put at risk if the Somali government cannot manage its own public finances properly, avoid future famines or tackle terrorism and piracy.” Quite so.

Source: The Economist

[BigBreak]

it would be a different story if the daroods could control mogadishu - all you would here is the virtues of centralised unitary system

[ASMtimacade]

Somalis may have been homogenious once, but since the civil war started people were killed based on clan. So, know your clan is your ethnicity. Politically people have developed completely opposite views. For example, the mr Aynte in the article recently wrote a peice on behalf of Heritage in which he argued that people from my clan (Darod) who have been ethnically cleansed out of Mogadishu in the 90s, and who are now refugees in Kenya, should not be allowed to return to their homes in Southern Somalia since they resided their illegally during the time their clan dominated somali politics prior to 1991. And these are the educated elite of the Hawiye who now control Mogadishu and the central goverment. That is why the only solution for Somalia is a system of federated mini states that share a weak central goverment. The new president, Mr. Hassan does not like this arrangement becuase the Hawiye will get only one state out of five, while thier arch rival, the Darod will get Puntland and Jubaland. Furthermore if Bay, Bakool and lower Shabele become a Digil and Mirifle state, Mogadsishu will loose its tax base and economic back yard to the Digil and Mirifle who now live in semi-slave existence under the thumb of the Hawiye.

Just to add one more reason why the Hawiye elites are hell bent on centralised unitary system is they can't agree and trust each other to form a federal state in their residence, central Somalia. So, they would like to hold the rest of Somalia (80% of territory) hostage for another 22 years with a centralist illusion. They can't establish a regional state because of their propensity for anarchism and the deep mistrust that has been infused by 22 years conflict and savagery within them. Unfortunately, these conditions allowed fanatics and psychopaths in the form of Alshabab to manifest in Hawiye regions, with dreadful consequences for them as well as other regions and neighbouring countries.

Unfortunately, most people are blind to the fact that the unrest and conflict that are attributed to Somalia has almost exclusively been in Hawiye inhabited or invaded regions for the past 22 years. If federalism transpires in accordance with the constitution, everyone will see the black sheep in the country. So, what better way than to perpetuate the status quo.

This sad situation we are in will not end until the Hawiye, like the Hutus of Rwanda, recognise and make mends for their past actions or the international community recognises that the solutions for the country does not lie with them. Unfortunately, neither are expected soon.

[BigBreak]

anti hawiye propaganda at its finest

[Magnusomalius]

By the centre I think the Somaliland foreign minister means the capital Mogdishu.
Somalia will be governed by the centre though , the centre of the political spectrum that is , where evryone will have to give something up
Multi tribal democratic states . Somaliland is already there and in order for them to give up their secessionist goals , the rest of the somalis will have to organize themselves in a similar fashion .

[BigBreak]

^ sorry mate but somaliland consists of ONE of the TWO parts of the defunct Somali Republic that died on 18/5/91
happy may 18 to you too

[Guul13]

Puntland is already multi-tribal, besides the majority and the native Madhibaan and Tumaal, Dir of Central Somalia has also joined.Therefore it's not a one-clan hegemony as many love to claim.

Furthermore, the upcoming federal states of Central Somalia, South-Western Somalia and Jubbaland are also multi-tribal. All we're waiting for is for the so-called capital to stop being a one-clan show and return people's properties, and Somalia can rise from the dead.

[BigBreak]

should somaliland stays with somalia i would propose a loose union between the two states along colonial borders and their would be 18 regions, five in somaliland and 13 in somalia

1 weak union (central) govt
2 state governments &
18 regional governments (includes local govt)

each of the two states would be allowed to secede or not

[Magnusomalius]

When Puntland form something with the habar gidir to their south , maybe I will take your statement seriously my friend mr Guul13.
The whole point here is to work out of your comfort zone , in order to build a long lasting project like we do with your hartis cousins .

[abdikarim86]

By the centre I think the Somaliland foreign minister means the capital Mogdishu.
Somalia will be governed by the centre though , the centre of the political spectrum that is , where evryone will have to give something up
Multi tribal democratic states . Somaliland is already there and in order for them to give up their secessionist goals , the rest of the somalis will have to organize themselves in a similar fashion .

Shut the fock up!

Nothing will be given up to Xamar duliyahow.

[Magnusomalius]

By the centre I think the Somaliland foreign minister means the capital Mogdishu.
Somalia will be governed by the centre though , the centre of the political spectrum that is , where evryone will have to give something up
Multi tribal democratic states . Somaliland is already there and in order for them to give up their secessionist goals , the rest of the somalis will have to organize themselves in a similar fashion .

Shut the fock up!

Nothing will be given up to Xamar duliyahow.

Listen to me you dumb fuc, k , meeshani waa INTERNET , ama fikradaada dhiibo , ama kacsiga meelaha la mar !
Miyaad i garanaysa aniga , mise walaasha baan qaba ?

[Guul13]

When Puntland form something with the habar gidir to their south , maybe I will take your statement seriously my friend mr Guul13.
The whole point here is to work out of your comfort zone , in order to build a long lasting project like we do with your hartis cousins .

No need for that, diversity means more than just one group of people and Puntland has fulfilled this already with the addition of Dir, and the presence of Madhibaan/Tumal etc. If Puntland incorporated Habar Gidir regions it would rule most of Central Somalia and become the largest federal state. What's the point of having one massive bloated federal state and a tiny federal state in the Centre, what's next, adopt Hiiraan as well?

It makes more sense to have a Central-Somalia federal state with HG, Marehan, Galgaduud Dir and others.

[abdikarim86]

By the centre I think the Somaliland foreign minister means the capital Mogdishu.
Somalia will be governed by the centre though , the centre of the political spectrum that is , where evryone will have to give something up
Multi tribal democratic states . Somaliland is already there and in order for them to give up their secessionist goals , the rest of the somalis will have to organize themselves in a similar fashion .

Shut the fock up!

Nothing will be given up to Xamar duliyahow.

Listen to me you dumb fuc, k , meeshani waa INTERNET , ama fikradaada dhiibo , ama kacsiga meelaha la mar !
Miyaad i garanaysa aniga , mise walaasha baan qaba ?

Emotional little alcoholic nurse oo kolba dhinac u cararta baad tahay ee debatekaaga was.
Marna "Daarood baa i dhalay" marka kalena "Daaroodkan xun" ayuun baad meesha la timaada.

Trully pathetic shit baad tahay, How on earth you got it into your
head inay Sl madaxbanaanideeda la noqon doonto garan maayo.

Stick to the Jack Daniels it's what you do best

[Magnusomalius]

Galkacayo isn't galkcayo half habar gidir ?

[Guul13]

Galkacayo isn't galkcayo half habar gidir ?

Half? Nope, 10% is more realistic. The natives have no issue with the current arrangement, don't see why outsiders are trying to make an issue here.
Galkacyo's citizens trade with one another, regularly host football tournaments and agree on federalism. Apart from some old qabiil tensions, Galkacyo is fine as it is.