ABOUT JUBALND, TO UGAAS SAHAL80

[Individual]

Hey sahal how do you see this (Jubaland incident) to be solved ?, will there be an conflict between the two wannabe presidents or will the igad representatives with somali delegation find an solution!

[sahal80]

Hi individual
Jubbaland is not traditionally clan-based land or a clan-homeland and every clan have migrated to there from their homelands, thus, it has been controlled by many clans in the last 23years.
To reach real stability, you can't reach it through one clan so this govt wants to be the referee.
According to the govts national stabilization plan, they want to set up an interm administration on a gobol levels as a transitional stage for 6 months followed by a federal state where the admin gobols can unite to form that state.
This govt wants to appoint a different admins from different clans for all middle jubba, lower jubba and gedo.
Aperently, the admin of middle jubba who is attached to xamar clan-wise is likely to be the vice president in the expected federal state where the president comes from gedo or lower jubba.
On the other hand the kismayo conference is clan-based thus, all the admins of lower jubba, middle jubba and geddo will be from the same clan.
The clan of the conference have never had any conference in their history before this unlike of the other clans so they have more structural problems but demographically they don't live in the same places and therefore had less clashes.
The power sharing in banadir administration is based on the ex golaha deegaanka banaadir wich was formed in 2006 when these subclans excepted the mayorship to go for some subclan with the others becoming deputies and head of the counts as you see no more power struggle in there.
One of the kismayo conference subclans was given much less in the conference delegates that would vote some number between 70 and 80 while other subclan had some thing like 120 and with his allies 140 the xamar attached subclans were given between 10 and 15 members so...
Now xamar attached clans and gedo are againist it and want it to be done through the govt.
Most armed groups are raaskamboni and gedo army, more arms are arriving kismayo and they may clash with eachother but only allah knows the future.
The govt wants to keep the balance in kismayo and come up with the solution.
We are still waiting the igad report.
In my opinion at the end every matter will go back to the govt.

[Individual]

Hello sahal80 nice discussing with you again,anyway about jubaland;

Even a blind can see that kenya is interfering with the governments national stabilisation plan with being biased toward a certain clan ''for their INTERESTS WHICH IS THE OIL IN OUR WATER TERRITORY'', this goes against the principals of IGAD AND UN policy of stabilising somalia, the question that needs answer is WHY NOT REMOVE KENYA OUT OF AMISOM OR REPLACE THEM WITH OTHER COUNTRY OF AMISOM 'e.g. sierra leone'???

The favoured clan will ONLY know after kenya has left, that the ERA of warlordism is over, and hopefully their common sense will prevail and they will return to negotiation table!

[original dervish]

The Govt has been trying to cause conflict in Kismayo since their first day in Villa Somalia.
The J/Land admin will not work with the Xamar based Govt until they abide by the constitution.

[sahal80]

Individual
That is the problem.
Kenya is there not to work with the govt but with its somali populations, they are moving their administration into there.
To understand all these things I advise you to read the latest article for dr olusu about igad in HOL .
They are using al shabaab excuse but the would has changed them into an amisom mission but they are not still professional. It takes months to get rid of them when the somali troops are ready to keep the security and before that serra lione will get deployed and they will look after the local army and helping the local administration.

[Individual]

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[Individual]

I have read dr olusu about igad , considering all this going in jubaland, one might expect a change of troops of kenya with Sierra leone, but when will such expectation be realised?

Wallhi this incident is an lesson to all future leaders of somalia on who is the spoilers of somalia, and collaborators of ENEMY OF SOMALIA!!!

[sahal80]

Induvidual.
Kenya has nearly 4800 troops in there and will get reduced into a half because the world is cutting from them the extra funds out of amisom wich they had before they also lost their dream to control the sea in the name of amisom navy when the somali FM rejected it in the UN house.
Sierra lione are not going to replace them but to take some of the job and they will be securing the port.

They are ready and some are in xamar but I guess some arrangments are still going on.

[Individual]

How long would you reasonably estimate for the somali army to be complete and capable to defend the Somalia Land and assume the roles of the Amisom?

[sahal80]

Supposed to be on march 6 20014.
We have 28,000 troops in banaadir bases alone but they are lacking weapons. Among them are 6000 well trained under the europian training program wich is started in 2009 in uganda but from now on, they will get trained inside somalia. Only 2000 of the abroad trained have being deployed so far(wikki).
You need to read dr oluso commentry on the UN resolution 2093

Supposed to be on march 6 20014.
We have 28,000 troops in banaadir bases alone but they are lacking weapons. Among them are 6000 well trained under the europian training program wich is started in 2009 in uganda but from now on, they will get trained inside somalia. Only 2000 of the abroad trained have being deployed so far(wikki).

"Rebuilding the Army

In November 2009, the European Union announced its intention to train 2 Somali battalions (around 2,000 troops), which would complement other training missions and bring the total number of better-trained Somalian soldiers to 6,000.[63] The 2 battalions are expected to be ready by August 2011.[64] On 21 April 2011, 1,000 recruits completed training in Uganda as a part of the agreement with the EU.[65]

In May 2010, Turkey and the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia also signed a military training agreement, in keeping with the provisions outlined in the Djibouti Peace Process.[66]

As part of the EU military training program, 900 Somali soldiers graduated from the Bihanga Military Training School in the Ibanda District of Uganda on 31 August 2011.[68][69] 150 personnel from the EU took part in the training process, which trained around 2,000 Somali troops per year.[69]

On 16 September 2011, President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed laid down the foundation for a new military camp for the Somali National Army (SNA) in the Jazeera District of Mogadishu. The $3.2 million construction project was funded by the EU and was expected t

As of March 2013, the Somali National Army consists of six trained brigades, two of which are presently deployed. Each brigade comprises three to six battalions of around 1000 soldiers each, or 18,000 to 36,000 troops in total. Of these, an estimated 6,000 to 12,000 soldiers are currently in service.[72]



You need to read dr oluso commentry on the UN resolution 2093
http://allafrica.com/stories/201303180567.html
http://allafrica.com/stories/201303180567.html

[original dervish]

Well trained.....in what...rape and pillage?
The Govt are powerless to act in J/Land....that much should be clear by now.

[gurey25]

OD you should be worried about the current projection of training rates.
if the information provided by sahal is accurate then the sfg should be able to deploy a credible force superior to any clan millitias in juba or anywhere in somalia within 9 moths to 2 years.

the only bottleneck is training and weapons procurement, manpower is readily available.

all hassan shiekh has to do in the meantime is stalemate his enemies through diplomacy because in future he will be able to dictate terms with no need to negotiate with anyone.