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The igad delegation are not neutral in this conflict for the fact that kenya and ethiopia are part of the proplem besides the head if igad mahboub moallim is a kenyan somali. Thus, its clear that they have a decision ahead of them. Yes there are djabouti, sudan, uganda and south sudan. South sudan is closer to kenya as they are looking for a port in south somalia.
The maint points each somali group had was the kismayo conference was all-inclusive and no subclan is left out and no it wasn't all- inclusive and that why all these competitors and fifth rival presidents...
Seeing and interecting with these in the conference, they found many subclan dhaqan/ugaas in the building and they said; we are their elders and we support the conference!
Today they are meeting with col barre hiiraale group.
Obviously after considering the above factors like the igad itself being part of the problem, many dhaqan being part of the conference... They would come up with a compromise agreement that my give legitimate to the conference with the govts conditions and where shaykh madoobe accepts a below of what he wanted before as its his currently maximum dream after having all these competitors and rivals.
Since the new situations, the govt political position is that he cannot go back. So, this time the problem is from the govt and they may not let down don't their allies, its likely the govt to reject it to take more advantage of the situation..
IGAD can't do shyt as the west has stopped their dual track policy towards somalia, this time, the somali govt is in the driving seat while the rest of somalis are in the passenger seat.
IGAD is officially not practically acting doing the things according to the somali govts policy.

despite all propaganda from xamar one single bullet did not fired and jubaland was formed get used to it.

Actually the Marehan Ugaas has left that fake conference. Relatives for Kismaayo said he has separated himself and he apologized to the Marehan dhaqan in Waamo who refused to participate from the beginning. He went there once during the dastuur meeting and said the whole thing is a joke.

Besides that, fock IGAD. Barre has men, weapons, and a powerful base. If the Somalis wi go head to head, there is no way Kamboni will defeat him. If the Kenyans interfere on side of Madoobe, then it will be a political game changer and all the niceness will leave the political maslaxad going on which means the to govt will do everything to have Kenya removed. Already there is a motion being sponsored in the Parliament that wants to criticize Kenyan troops. It will also lead to the break up of the coalition of Madoobe since the entire Marehan military and dhaqan are anti Madoobe, the few Marehan given posts in Madoobe election will join their people and will unravel whatever existence that election is built on because any battle will quickly become Marehan vs. Ogaden.

But if it doesn't get to fighting, Barre will control his domain and form his parallel government with enough protection to keep things at a stalemate.

Either way, the momentum has been broken in the Kenya/IGAD project. The only one empowered so far is the government which can say this is what we warned about and we must implement our stabilization program post-haste.

Voltage

I'm just talking about what the igads next proposal is likely to be after they got the report not about the local groups and the govts positions.
The political power position in kismayo has changed and sh madoobe is no more in his own island since he opened a pandoras box onto himself, the result was:
No amisom recognition
Govt goes there and ignores him
Igad goes there and meets with all of them but he still has one strong point and the igad hope, the point is having his own camp besides him like ganndhi, shakool, ina abdi rashid, all of them support him now. He also has awlibaax, gen ali madoobe and fartaag from the gedo camp and maybe some of the gedo delegates are still in the building,This will make the conference to look like institutional.
The central truth that the igad are part of this project and would like to go forth with it with some deal that puts every thing under the govts authority and control with their "help" this will put the govt in an awkward position.
Now the govt has turned away, called back its delegations to take action againist kenya. They see its the good time to take advantage of the situation and not to walk back so its likely to reject recognizing one group.
One simple thing that stops them is the west besides having secured amisom but it may had a far-reaching consequences mostly clashing with ethiopia. If the govt thinks its the right time to change the things than its ok.

You guys kill me

Hey sahal what do you think is the likely consequence if let's say igad agrees with madobe, what can we do when we don't have a military?

Individual wrote:Hey sahal what do you think is the likely consequence if let's say igad agrees with madobe, what can we do when we don't have a military?

They can't agree with him, never!
He has to agree first with their proposal and sign for the govts conditions before announcing any agreement as an igad proposal in addis. In other words its a face saving agreement for their group and this will put the govt in an awkward position.
They would use the not being all-inclusive card. This is why the president was visiting many regions or has changed his own political positions wich will sound a clan-based ideas. The west support the govts initiative but it has to be an all- inclusive. Now igad would say the govt has been given the initiative but rejects to act as an all-inclusive.

So what will happen, will the weak government listen to IGAD and solve this delicate matter with ease or will the government be stubborn by not listening to reason and cause more harm then good?

WHY WONT THE GOVERNMENT END THIS DEADLOCK AND MOVE ON?

Individual wrote:So what will happen, will the weak government listen to IGAD and solve this delicate matter with ease or will the government be stubborn by not listening to reason and cause more harm then good?

WHY WONT THE GOVERNMENT END THIS DEADLOCK AND MOVE ON?

The answer belongs to the govt as I said before in my previous posts.

The igad are officially saying one thing like the initiative has been given to the govt but practically are doing different thing because they are part of the problem. Would the govt govt get rid of them by using the AMISOM, the UN and the west? This may result a severe consequences regionally. The other why is to take what you got now and deal with their men but having control on them and their resouces.
The answer belongs to the govt.
I will back after some time.

AND ALLAH SWT SAYS; "So ask the people of knowledge if you do not know" [Quran 16:43], thank Sahal80 for sharing your knowledge with us, hopefully we hear more updates from you soon!

Thanks and have a nice day my Muslim Brother Nomad

Individual wrote:AND ALLAH SWT SAYS; "So ask the people of knowledge if you do not know" [Quran 16:43], thank Sahal80 for sharing your knowledge with us, hopefully we hear more updates from you soon!

Thanks and have a nice day my Muslim Brother Nomad

And thank you too my enthusiastic brother. If all somalis were like you all these countries would have feared from us but they know the somali reality so they don't respect us.
The guy who represents ethiopia in the delegation is the general who was sitting in villa somalia during the ethiopian occupation.
General gabre

Kenyan army has reportedly welcomed ahmed madoobe election but they cant do shyt officially.
http://hiiraan.com/news4/2013/May/29414 ... eader.aspx

I got for you the results.

Exactly as my previous analysis on the igad mission, this because we know the available proposals but not the solutions.

Fartaag says they asked us to provide for them three things;
-- The signers of the conference
--The organizers of the conference
--The three regions tribal chiefs
Plus how to fix the troupled relations they had with the govt or as he called it "madamadooga soo dhexgaley anka iyo dolada"
I'm not saying the govt would agree on fixing the relationship with this wing even they are a weak and unwilling partner and that every thing would be suitable for the govts way but just as an igad proposal.
It seems that barre hiiraales claim has being questioned when mahboub asked him kindly to dismount from his position but the colonel has rejected this unless the shykh resigns too.
Maybe the govt would stick to the colonels position in the likelihood of gaining more...