AW,
http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewc ... ontext=jss
This rather long article argues that a "youth bulge" in the demographic brought on the Arab Spring. Even if you disagree with the theory, the projections, facts and figures are worth checking out.
Only a small part of the article:
Any discussion of these events must
first put the demography of Egypt
into context. The population of Middle Eastern countries has more than
quadrupled over the past sixty year
s. According to the United Nations
Population Division, in 1950 the comb
ined population of all Middle East-
ern countries was 60.2 million, compar
ed with the more than 271 million
in 2005. Its percentage of the total
world population has doubled from 2.5
to 5 percent over that same time period.
31
Even more stunning are the fig-
ures for Egypt itself: it has grown
over 378 percent from 1950 to the
present, beginning at 21.5 million in
habitants and standing currently at
over 81 million.
32
Put another way, the population of Egypt today has 20 million more peo-
ple than the entire Middle East did in 1950. On a municipal level, Cairo is
the most populous metropolitan area
on the African continent, and one of
the most densely populated cities in the world. The reason Tahrir Square
functioned as the heartbeat of the re
volution was, in part, because many
of the demographic stress factors we
re exacerbated in the overcrowded
Cairo metropolitan area. Furthermore,
the population is projected to
grow by approximately 50 percen
t over the next half century.
As discussed above, it is not only the total size of the population, but its
make-up, that can cause
societal demographic stre
ss. The Middle East is
endowed with one of the youngest po
pulations in the world; the popula-
tion under the age of fifteen is over 33 percent. Most individual nations in
the region have youth cohorts under
the age of twenty-four that account
for over half of their population. Egyp
t is no different, with over 54 per-
cent of its population making up the under-twenty-four demographic.
Adding to the demographic warning
signs are the 24 million Egyptians
who are between the ages of fifteen and twenty-nine, also referred to in
the demographic security field as "fighting age."
33
The Middle East claims one of the highest unemployment rates in the
world. Additionally, the level of social capacity required to fulfill the needs
of new generations is sorely lackin
g. Youth populations experiencing a
combination of economic hardship, to
o few political venues for voicing
grievances, and an inundation of a re
volutionary ideology are more likely
to cause political instability.
34
As of 2010 the Egyptian unemployment
rate was reportedly 9.7 percent,
although this does not include the
underemployed.
35
The result of the aforementioned de
mographic dynamics is now history.
Hosni Mubarak resigned un
der gr