Addis talks depend on ethiopia since they are going to that region
There is a competition between uganda, kenya and ethiopia for influence in somalia, thus, uganda gives amisom the central role while ethiopia and kenya want to protect their own interests and watch closely.
According to this american professor, "the deadlock will still persist"
He says the multi-amisom initiative needs the funders support and that why ethiopia is going there instead otherwise the govt needs to convince their funders
Short-Range Forecast
Whether the T.C.C. decision to support the S.F.G. in “establishing its authority in the Jubba regions” presages an S.F.G. takeover of Kismayo’s airport and seaport, and, therefore, the crippling of the Jubbaland administration; or it is yet another complication in the persisting deadlock depends on whether AMISOM deploys a multinational force in Kismayo.
At present, there are several steps still to be taken if the multinational force is to come into being. Firstly, AMISOM and the chiefs of Ethiopia’s and the S.F.G.’s defense forces have to work out the “modalities and operationalization” of the force. The plan must then be approved by the Western powers that bankroll AMISOM. Finally, the plan must be implemented in the face of Kenya’s and Jubbaland’s opposition. Each of those steps is fraught with difficulties.
What the composition of the force would be is unspecified. On August 6, Uganda’s New Vision newspaper reported that it would be an Ethiopian Defense Forces, Somali National Army, and K.D.F. operation, which, if that were to be the case, would place the conflict directly at the heart of its proposed resolution. As for the Western “donor”-powers, a closed source reports that Great Britain, which has taken the lead role among the “donor”-powers, is pressing the S.F.G. to stop opposing the Jubbaland administration and to concentrate instead on speeding a permanent constitution for Somalia, revealing a divergence between the “donor”-powers and the T.C.C. (Uganda).
That neither Kenya nor the Jubbaland administration seems ready to concede to Uganda and the S.F.G. makes it likely that the deadlock will persist. The S.F.G. scored a diplomatic victory, but the costs of turning it into a decisive change in the balance of power appear to be prohibitive. The S.F.G. would need greater support by more external actors to make the T.C.C. decision stick.
It should always be remembered that the conflict in Kismayo is likely to decide what kind of political organization – centralized federalism (S.F.G.) or decentralized federalism (Jubbaland) – Somalia will have, if any. The parties to the conflict have lost sight of its importance and are engaged in “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.”
Report Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein, Professor of Political Science, Purdue University in Chicago weinstem@purdue.edu
