ICU could have ended the Somali Civil War

[AbdiJohnson]

The Somali Civil War could have ended in 2006 if Acudubillahi Yusuf just let the Islamic Courts Union take over Somalia instead of calling the Ethiopians.

Somalia is now destined to be under foreign occupation for a century

The only way to unite the Somalis and have one country is through Islam since they all believe in it. Its the only common thing they share. The ICU would have ended this shit

I am,

Abdi "How many of you supported ICU?" Johnson

[GIJaamac]

Yep. HG was planning to lead Somalia into the paths of glory. but our weak jeberti enemies as well as America and Ethiopia were too afraid. So they had to crush us when we were at grassroot level.
Next time bitches, next time.

[original dervish]

I was supporting them until they began mouthing off to the worlds press about liberating Iraq/Palestine etc.
Their fate was sealed after that....giving the perfect pretext for the Ethiopian invasion.

They proved by their actions that they were totally unfit to govern Somalia.

[FarhanYare]

od,
if memory serves me right your uncle invited ethio's to finish off certain clans he could not stand. So really it wasn't an invasion persay, but more of an invitation

[Gabre]

What a lot of people don't understand is that ICU was doomed to fail from the start, and that the current map of Somalia was pre-planned by the powers that be long before ICU defeated the warlords. If you had a Stratfor subscription, like most military and intelligence analysts in 2004, you would've known this because of a report by Stratfor on the US and allies plans for containing the then nascent Maxakiim/ICU/SICC. The most interesting thing that will likely pique readers' interests the most is that the map posted in this report is basically the map of Somalia we've had for the past year or two. This map is from 2004/2005 however, when warlords were still around and ICU hadn't solidified itself up to the 2006 invasion by Ethiopia. Uganda, Burundi, Cameroon, Nigeria, et al of AMISOM weren't on the scene. Neither was Kenya. Yet, almost a decade later here we are, the plans of the powers that be having come to fruition almost precisely. The long Ethiopian-controlled corridor from Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiiraan, etc, the Kenyan-controlled corridor in the Jubbas territory, the Ugandan-controlled corridor (this can be interpreted as AMISOM (Burundi), who have been slow in taking the baton of controlling of areas previously held by Ethiopia but nevertheless worked towards fulfilling the Ethiopian handover in key places like Baidoa), the Puntland-controlled corridor (this can be interpreted as the Darood clan-controlled corridor), all meant to contain Somalia's Islamists who weren't christened with the abbreviation UIC yet at the time of planning.

Summary

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs Theresa Whelan met Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Oct. 10 to discuss cooperation in combating terrorism in the Horn of Africa. Concerned with Somalia's Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC), Washington is signaling a shift from diplomatic engagement of the SICC alone to containing the SICC via regional and Somalian proxies. The move will contain SICC in southern, central, and northern corridors in Somalia. The Islamist group, however, will not accept this without a fight -- which will threaten U.S. interests in Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti.

Analysis

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs Theresa Whelan met Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Oct. 10 to discuss cooperation in combating terrorism in the Horn of Africa.

Concerned about Somalia's Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC), Washington is signaling a shift from diplomatic engagement of the SICC alone to containing the group via regional and Somalian proxies. The move will contain SICC in southern, central, and northern corridors in Somalia. The Islamist group, however, will not accept this without a fight -- which will threaten U.S. interests in Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti.





Many outside governments fear Somalia will become a training ground for jihadists, and that SICC recruits foreign fighters. This concern was reinforced Oct. 9 when SICC leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed -- formerly seen abroad as SICC's moderate face -- declared a jihad against Ethiopia, which he said had sent 35,000 troops to the defense of Somalia's interim government. Ahmed's likely exaggeration of Ethiopian troop levels -- which more realistically consist of several hundred troops in-country and a several-thousand strong ready-reserve in Ethiopia -- is seen as a tactic to inflame nationalist and Islamist sentiment that Somalians are unjustly suffering from anti-Islamic foreign interference.

Having had its embassies in Kenya and Tanzania bombed by jihadists operating out of the region, Washington wants to prevent the Horn of Africa from being used again by jihadists to attack U.S. interests. Following the 9/11 attacks, the United States established the Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa command center in Djibouti. Countries within the region, including Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda, share these concerns about Islamist threats. Ethiopia and Uganda are fighting Islamist insurgency groups that the SICC could support, while Kenya wants to prevent the SICC from becoming a threat to Kenya's internal security and stability by interfering with Kenya's sizeable Muslim and ethnic Somali population. These shared concerns could result in greater cooperation with the United States.

Kenya, which has a history of U.S. ground-force and naval cooperation out of its Manda Bay naval base, announced Oct. 10 that it has massed troops and armored vehicles at points along its border with Somalia to contain a southward SICC expansion. In addition to providing training programs to Kenyan officers, the United States has beefed up Kenya's maritime security by giving Nairobi patrol craft Oct. 6. Kenya will use the boats to help prevent its coast from being used a smuggling route to Somalia.

Uganda , a U.S. ally that has participated in joint military exercises with the United States, is rumored to be a candidate for a U.S. regional forward operating base. Ugandasent troops to Baidoa, Somalia, the seat of the interim Somalian government, on Sept. 26 to prevent SICC from being able to support Islamist insurgencies throughout East Africa. Uganda faces its own Islamist insurgency from the rebel Allied Democratic Front, and will need to maintain a secure overland corridor from the Kenyan border through the Somalian city of Baardheere to Baidoa in order to prevent the SICC from cutting off its supply route to Ugandan forces in Baidoa.

Ethiopia has been the leading African purchaser of U.S. arms, and Washington has provided officer training to the Ethiopian armed forces. Ethiopia is a useful ally for dealing with Somalia, as Ethiopia has mounted a defense of Somalia's interim government due to its own national security concerns. Ethiopia will control a corridor along its border with central Somalia to Baidoa in order to prevent Somalia's Islamists from provoking an anti-Ethiopian insurgency among Ethiopia's ethnic Somalian population.

Within Somalia itself, the United States will take advantage of Somalia's fractured clan system to contain the SICC threat. Should his government be threatened with collapse, Interim President Abdillahi Yusuf will retreat north toward the city of Gaalkacyo and his Darood clan. The Darood are intimately familiar with SICC military leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, having fought a decades-long war against him and his Hawiye clan. The Darood clan can be expected to maintain a line against the Hawiye clan, effectively containing northward SICC expansion.

The SICC adamantly opposes foreign interference that threatens its designs to preserve an Islamist government that would give it a free hand to train and plan out larger operations. It will thus combat any encirclement, and will seek to scale up its military capabilities. Recruiting foreign fighters to ramp up its forces likely will yield foreign fighters preferring to attack U.S interests rather than Ethiopian, Kenya, and Ugandan troops. Since Somalia lacks prominent U.S. targets, U.S. facilities in Kenya (the site of the 1998 embassy bombing), Ethiopia, and Djibouti present likely alternatives for jihadists aiming at striking U.S. interests.

Rather than acting unilaterally, the United States is now acting via proxies with a deep understanding of the history and threat presented by Somalia's Islamists -- a significant adjustment.

[Bermooda]

Right now there is an ongoing revolution within Alshaytan with Godane/globalist vs Robow/nationalist by nationalist i mean focusing on Somalia only. Godane at the moment got the upper hand with Robow and his team in disarray but not fully defeated for Robow is not dead and instead is regrouping his group for a major counter attack.

This counter attack which will happen when it happens will be devastating for the globalist which after that i believe the groups popularity will once again surge and so we will see a Mogadishu part 2 this time not against Ethiopia who has a mind of occupation but Amisom which sees our country as a cash cow sending a final message to the West -which is after our oil/natural resources- that only through dialogue with us will they ever get to taste our black gold/natural resources.

This scenario can be prevented tho via our government finally getting its act together and realize Somalis whether in the past present or future hate foreigners and no matter what force used against them will never condone it and so start focusing on building equipping funding the Somali National Army to keep the country and them safe instead of relying on outsiders.

[Grant]

Caydiid could likely have ended the civil war in 1993-94, if he had not been demonized in the American press and was not distrusted by the UN. Didn't happen.

[Marques]

Due to naivety and being young i was very supportive of the ICU, but upon reconsideration i realised there were too many flaws within. Indhacadde being the biggest. This guy was nothing but a filthy qabiilist who should not have been given the level of power he had. Granted he was strapped with money and manpower and offered cooperation, he dampened the image of the movement and Xasan Daahir was wrong to let him make decisions. Though many promoted it as a pan Somali movement (some non Hawiyes held important positions), Indhacadde popularised it as a Habar Gidir (Cayr in particular) Inc...Shariifs camp was the most reasonable because it held the middle ground; Wasnt extreme nor too lean, showed willingness to cooperate with the government on numerous occasions (they invited Cali Geedi to Xamar when the warlords were removed) etc but ofcourse it was not meant to be. Sad predicament to say the least.

[gurey25]

They should have practiced taqiya, we sunnis never use it like the shiica because we have always been top dog throughout most of our history,
just the brief blip of the past 100 years where we have been colonial subjects.

The ICU should have played a game of deception because all war is deception.
They should have formed 2 artificial factions , a hardcore islamist faction and a "reformist pro western faction" the "reformist" faction should pretend to be salafi/wahabi and solicit saudi aid and advise, and express the willingness to cooperate with the west, and peace with ethiopia.
The two should have staged a battle and let the "reformists" come out as winners and incharge, some of the leadership will be too stupid to understand the game that is played and will genuinly put up a serious fight, so some dead bodies will be provided as evidence of the conflict.

Using the offices of the saudis to facilitate contacts with the US .

Once you unify the country and stabalize your government, in a few years you can defy the west and they will not be able to do much.

[AhlulbaytSoldier]

Somehow even if xabashis didnt get in, ICU and its extremist wing would find a reason to fight against each other.