my prediction on...

[sahal80]

this analysis is not with or aganist any one, its based on the political reality.


As we know the motion was signed by 168 mps

In that day it was said around 200 mps were present

Means only 32 of them were in favor of the pm

I said in that day I will give him about 70 mps as far he can push himself

The speaker who was away has now called all of the mps to attend...

Now the pms hidden agendas is to reduce the votes of no confdence-160- by...

Bribery has become necessary in this parliament but in that case it will depend on who offers more

I would say the pms camp may secure about 100 mps at most and the votes of no confidence will still be enought to oust him about 139 mps.

Political cards

The biggest factor is the politicians experience and his political strength

For this reason I see the somali pm not winning this battle, what's his political experience? did he had a political strength and a political position based on whatever?

He attends to do so from now on...that is a different thing.

Some region is strongly againist the pm, this, if we can't be sure for others who have been againist him too yesterday.

Looks like the presidents camp and mostly his adiviser abdi shakur warsame are spreading tactically some rumors about pm post candidates that dont hail from the same region as the current pm.

[HooBariiska]

in summary?

[sahal80]

Let it be in that way.

278 parliament members may attend but it doesn't depend on all of them

Its depends on 139 votes of no confidence

There are now 168 mps who signed the anti-pm motion

Now the pms agenda is to reduce them less than 139 votes

He must have 140 votes

I said he is not going to have over 100 votes.

[sahal80]

News are saying the list of the motion signed by 168 mps with its complet names was sent back to the speaker

Seems there are a conditions for the pm to address the meeting as the mps who support the president have rejected it for fear that he may target him and reveal his secrets wich may change the mps minds.

According to the news that are going around the speaker has revealed to some mps that the pms likes to address the meeting

It may depend on the mps voting on this.

UNMG have landed and are watchting the hands!.