1. WINNER - Ahmed Madoobe - President of Jubbaland State
This man spends nearly 3 years in the wilderness before his Kenyan allies capture Kismayo for him. His political brilliance is not to be underestimated. Some of his successes include:
1. Sidelining his competitor - Professor Gandhi without having to fire a single shot.
2. Eliminating the threat from a rival group of faction leaders namely his long time nemesis Barre Hiiraale who like the Mogadishu warlords was driven into the political wilderness.
3. Defying Obama and Co. by continuing his charcoal exports inspite of sanctions.
4. Marginalizing the Garguurte regime selectively by welcoming some to Kismayo: the Ex-Pm Saacid, Interior Minister Guled while keeping others out Defense Minister, Army Commander etc. His unrelenting position drew the ire of Garguurte but alas nothing could be done after Barre Hiiraale and Co were given a through drubbing out of town.
5. Outfoxing Faroole & Puntland - Madoobe played a very very smart play. He used the "Kabalaxax" card to garner support from the powerful Puntland block and used them for financial resources and their propaganda machine to wage a campaign against Garguurte. He milked their intense hatred for Garguurte. Madoobe extracted their financial resources and political capital effectively. Yet when it came to negotations, he told Faroole and Puntland to take a hike. He took off his Kabalaxax shirt and revealed his true colors: I care only for my tol. I nearly died of laughter when I saw the same hardcore Planders bad mouthing MAdoobe for his alleged treacherous behavior. Faroole was outfoxed and he was fuming.
6,The Red Herring - Madoobe's genius was his Red Herring, "State" vs. "Admin" - He traded away the label 'State' for Admin but got an agreement that he always wanted for the long term: Supreme ruler of Kismayo and its resources. The name did not matter as long as he kept the throne. An added stroke of genius was how he dragged the negotiations out knowing that Garguurte would CAVE because Garguurte wanted reach a resolution to the Jubbaland fiasco before the Brussels meeting. I wept with tears of joy when Madoobe outfoxed Garguurte. It was so beautiful.
7. Formation of the Jubba Admin - Madoobe got all he wanted. The agreement was in his favor because only he can enforce it not Mogadishu. After many years in the bush, Madoobe has come of age.
*** Note I have had various disagreements with Madoobists but I give credit where its due. This man was like our George W. Bush. People underestimated him yet he kept clobbering Professors (Gandhi), Deep pocket Islamists (Garguurte), radicals (Godane, Muscab), Piratelords (Faroole).
The LOSER:
HASSAN TAHIR AWEYS
He rejects his golden opportunity to become a Shahiid and instead opts to flee to a dustbowl called XiimanXeeb. There he is talked into 'surrendering' to the very institution that he fought against for many years. He is bundled into an aeroplane and delivered into the hands of a weak paper government.
Adeer, if you were going to compromise your values, you should have done so in 2009 and become the Supreme Ayatollah with Sharif Ahmed being a caretaker President. Yet you refused that compromise. You then proceeded to squander tolka's capital and manpower to fruitless causes which have lead you into a dark cell being held by the very thing you despised.
Why did you reject being a martyr ? Why did you not take what you advised many young people to take ?
