thoughts on federalism and federal states(article)

[sahal80]

Some are saying as the parliament is going to divide mogadishu into a smaller "special federal district" (probably wardhigley, wabari and the old mogadishu like xamarwayne etc) wich will become the capital, the banaadir, lower shabeele and middle shabeele will form a federal state called shabele state!

This will add millions of populations from mogadishu to this state wich will matter in the upper house!

Some are saying hiiraan will be part of it since its part of the shabelle valley but there is also the central state initiative wich may include hiiraan too.

My analysis is that all of them to form one federal state to solve the problem, my analysis are based on a recent allustration that was made by the somali president regarding the jubba and south-west initiatives, there fore the whole south may have two forms of federal states.

http://www.somalicurrent.com/2014/01/05 ... f-somalia/

[Estarix]

This guy is proposing amendments to the constitution; are there any plans to do this in 2016?
to be fair it sounds all too complex dealing with the politique, roadblocks and sensitivities that involves dealing with clan politics and clan states.

[BigBreak]

sahal....my xamari mate tells me that should the pre 1991 union is to be saved, then he says there will be three options to vertically govern somalia:

1. 18 regions (same or similar as pre 1991, 5 in north aka british s/land and 13 in south aka ex italian somalia) as the first level unit
2. 2-3 regions merge with each other (but within pre 1960 colonial boundaries) to make 6-9 states/provinces as the first level unit (2 in north, 5 in south)
3. 2 mega states of north and south only with colonial boundaries kept

in option 1, the centre is very strong and regions are quite weak. for option 2, powers will be more balanced between da feds and states with states named after their capital city. option 3 sees a very weak centre and the two mega regions are very strong

what do you think sahal

[sahal80]

sahal....my xamari mate tells me that should the pre 1991 union is to be saved, then he says there will be three options to vertically govern somalia:

1. 18 regions (same or similar as pre 1991, 5 in north aka british s/land and 13 in south aka ex italian somalia) as the first level unit
2. 2-3 regions merge with each other (but within pre 1960 colonial boundaries) to make 6-9 states/provinces as the first level unit (2 in north, 5 in south)
3. 2 mega states of north and south only with colonial boundaries kept

in option 1, the centre is very strong and regions are quite weak. for option 2, powers will be more balanced between da feds and states with states named after their capital city. option 3 sees a very weak centre and the two mega regions are very strong

what do you think sahal

My analysis is that it will be between the somali govt/SFG and somaliland or between the federalists and the separatists and not strictly south-north...

The ankara talks will at the end clarify the future relationship between the somali govt/SFG and somaliland

In the short term, i can tell having economical and security ties but not political ties

In case there was a reunification, I still believe that somaliland won't be a similar federal state, maybe just nominal one, it will have its own system with a large autonomy like kurdistan...will be based on border wise not a clan-wise and will have some officials within the somali govt who have no power, just like baghdad the real power will stay in mogadishu.

[Isir~]

Langaabeey; federalism weey dhaqaaqday, don't waste time writing shoddy articles stating the contrary.