Kulmiye is the Favourite to win 2015 Election

[samatar133]

In Somaliland reality, it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent party. Kulmiye defeating the incumbent UDUB was especial case that is unlikely to repeat. So far their is no sign of the opposition parties strengthening and attracting sufficient support to defeat Kulmiyo, and I suspect they will ever do it. For better or for worse, Kulmiye is likely to stay as the ruling party for a longtime.

[BoholKing]

In my opinion Kulmiye is too fractured and is weaker than in 2010. They have lost many of their original supporters one good example the people of Ahmed
Dhagax district and Baligubadle (Xaqsoor) and other supporters.

[Warabaha]

Ucid is who i would vote for

[samatar133]

In my opinion Kulmiye is too fractured and is weaker than in 2010. They have lost many of their original supporters one good example the people of Ahmed
Dhagax district and Baligubadle (Xaqsoor) and other supporters.

If you think Kulmiye is weaker you are very badly mistaken. Now they have government resources and experience they didn't have back 2010 and the opposition parties are weak. Not only they are going to win but it is likely they will win with higher margins than they did in 2010.

[BoholKing]

Just because they have government resources does not mean they are popular, UDUB also had government resources. Kulmiye lost supporters
in the recent scandals of 2012 local elections, it did not gain so where will they get those imaginary increased numbers unless one is hinting on
vote rigging? Xaqsoor supporters won't have non of that, the communities of Salahley and Berbera will fall inline behind UCID and WADANI.
The only way I can see Kulmiye gaining extra votes is if it attracts more votes from Awdal region, but Awdal is a contested region between
WADANI, UCID and Kulmiye. Back in 2010 people just wanted to get rid of UDUB that worked in favor of Kulmiye it was different, but now a lot
of people are actually against Kulmiye. When Kulmiye lost a significant support base in Hargeisa (Xaqsoor) supporters, logic tells us it
lost supporters not gained. I am confident if Xaqsoor supporters stick to their guns and continue joining WADANI and UCID, Kulmiye will
be totally crushed in Hargeisa region as their only support base will be 26 June communities.

[samatar133]

Boholking, war jiraaba cakaaruu iman let us wait till 2015. My bet is on Kulmiye winning, Wadani coming a distant second and UCID filling its traditional third position. However, 2015 is a bit distant and things could always change, though not likely, and fortunes of some opposition parties could change for the better.

[Methylamine]

In the 2015 election, places like Caynabo and Garadag are gonna have more votes than Hargeisa

[BoholKing]

We shall see, all I am saying is don't count on ghost extra numbers. Cause the way I see it Kulmiye lost supporters it did not gain.

[samatar133]

In the 2015 election, places like Caynabo and Garadag are gonna have more votes than Hargeisa

ballot stuffing and other electoral irregularities will be considerably lower than any election in the past.

[Methylamine]

In sha Allah that is the case, but I think it's in Siilaanyo's interest to retire before Xirsi oompa loompa ruins his name and legacy. But then again, there's literally no viable alternative at the moment

[samatar133]

We shall see, all I am saying is don't count on ghost extra numbers. Cause the way I see it Kulmiye lost supporters it did not gain.

The prediction is that the three parties getting similar votes from Awdal though Kulmiye is likely to win most votes. Maroodijeex will be a landslide for Kulmiye while votes from togdheer will be split in the middle for Kulmiye and Wadani. Saaxil, though small in population will heavily break for UCID while the remaining votes will evenly split between Kulmiye and Wadani. Again, Sanaag is likey to be split in middle for Kulmiye and Wadani, though Wandani have a better chance to win marginally while UCID will get virtually nothing from there. Also, Kulmiye is likely to win in Sool with high margins while Wandani will come a distant second and UCID again getting nothing from their.
If things happen like that, which is likely, Kulmiye will win comfortably.

[BoholKing]

Some of your prediction could be in line with the reality, however you got Hargeisa region wrong. It will be like in the 2012 local elections with Kulmiye
having no edge at all in Hargeisa itself Gabiley not included. The reason for that is as I mentioned they lost a important support base (Xaqsoor) supporters
who are as large as UCID supporters in Hargeisa. So Kulmiye will in fact be a minority in Hargeisa as there is no Xaqsoor supporters to prop up their
numbers like last time in 2010, they will either go with UCID or WADANI. Let me give you a good example. This is how the Hargeisa local council is.


WADANI & UMADDA (now both 1 party) - 7

Kulmiye - 8

UCID - 5

Rays - 1

Xaqsoor - 4



So you do realize whoever Xaqsoor supporters go with will have the edge and be the clear majority in Hargeisa? In my opinion Xaqsoor supporters can cause
significant damage to Kulmiye if they choose to join WADANI.

[samatar133]

Hargiesa is not equal to Maroodijeex. Still, Kulmiye is very likely to win Hargeisa comfortably.
Maroodijeex= Hargiesa, Gabilay district, Hawd/Baligubadle district and Salaxlay district and also villages of east Hargeisa and north Hargiesa all the way to the sea.
If you take out Hargiesa, Gabilay district alone has more than twice votes of the rest in Maroodijeex combined. If kulmiye wins Hargiesa and Gabiley it will result a landslide win for Kulmiye. Takale ruling out Kulmiye winning over Baligubadle and Axmed Dhagax is naive.

[theyuusuf143]

Some of your prediction could be in line with the reality, however you got Hargeisa region wrong. It will be like

WADANI & UMADDA (now both 1 party) - 7

Kulmiye - 8

UCID - 5

Rays - 1

Xaqsoor - 4

So you do realize whoever Xaqsoor supporters go with will have the edge and be the clear majority in Hargeisa? In my opinion Xaqsoor supporters can cause
significant damage to Kulmiye if they choose to join WADANI.

i agree with you but thats very unlikely, kulmiye begged mercy from ahmed dhagah district and i am sure most of the people accepted it. they really cant resist turning back to kulmiye as they used to be part of it.

at the other hand awdal has always been the hotspot i can say its the most important region for all presidential candidates, because no one can predict who will they vote for. today with all those development projects they may look kulmiye but if silaanyo does little mistake e.g if the goverment brings some issa refugees from djibouti awdal will definitely punish kulmiye looool.

even picking muuse biixi as a candidate can make them angry,those guys are really more demanding than any other community, they know how the system works but they sometimes cross the limits, which can put them in real trouble. fecking with the issa is not easy task because issas have their own powerfull comrades in hargeisa. the average S/muuse person cares issa than no other community! even if he is loosing something for siding with them.

[BigBreak]

i wish that the current three parties are dissolved to make way for FIVE new parties that will be in place PERMANENTLY instead of a ten year period in between local elections. i would go further and give all the current 3 parties' ruling body members a ten year ban on politics for pure incompetence

kulmiye, ucid and wadani are all garbage and all need to be consigned to the dustbin of history