My Opinion On The Baydhabo Situation

[Murax]

At the end of they day they will not get more than Bay/Bakool. Gedo/Jubbas lets not even go there, but at the end of the day they do not even have enough political revelancy in Sh Hoose to add it. Right now Shariif Xassan was ran out of town and the shacbi are going crazy in support of the 'six region' state. However this plays right into the hands of the opponents of the 3 region state. If I was a opponent of the 3 region state I would galvinze the supporters of the 6 region state to protest and cause mayhem. Because the end result will be that everything will be lost and only bay/bakool will be alloted to them to avoid war. I think Shariif xassan saw this and tried a last minute intervention but he was ran out of town.


I have been on the record from the beginning that the southwest will just have bay/bakool as a federal state. No Sh Hoose.

[BigBreak]

i agree with u, only bay and bakool will be together as one regional state. i believe after its union with somaliland inevitbaly ends, somalia should have six regions which goes as:

1. bari and nugaal
2. mudug and galguduud
3. hiiraan
4. banaadir and two shabelles
5. bay and bakool
6. two jubbas and gedo

[BigBreak]

[sahal80]

Murax

Sharif hassan did this to destroy the conference not to get elected!

Months ago when there was a talk about some wanting to hold a conference, I have posted a thread where he warns from such move!

He said this will result other self-announced presidents just like what happened before in kismayo!

He left his half-brother do that job for him as he works according to the govts agenda wich will not recognize any of the two administrations!

Now he has a chance to be a candidate under the official conference!


LoL where is the bad analyst voltage who once claimed that the ethiopians will impose sharif hassan and lol


The ethiopians are right now there yet are not doing any favour for him!

Totally shows how voltage is ignorent about the new somali political elites and the means they use to reach their goals yet he will challenge this and give them naïve excuses!.

[Murax]

Sahal,

You recognize 2 of the parties yet You pay no attention to the other party, which is a segment that does not want to see a 3 or 6 region state period. The truth is Voltage is right When He says DJ is completely irrelevant because they are. The factors at play here are Ethiopia, AU, United Nations envoy to Somalia Nickolas Kay, because he is the wakiil of the donars. The Dawlad just rubber stamp approves whatever they say. According to You though it is the other way around that this Dawlad that cannot control a square km on their own and exists on donar funds dictates to the people funding, protecting and sheltering them and this is why people get so perplexed with You.





As for this situation, in My mind it is clear that the Dawlad was pretty much pressured to accept the 3 region state but they now have the advantage because D&M are completely split and divided on this. Tomorrow if the people in Baydhabo support Shariif Xassan and hte 3 region state there is nothing this dam jadiid can do about it besides approve it.

[Titanium]

SH will never come under Baydhabo control. Anyone who even tries to entertain such an idea is deluded. SH is closer to SD and Banaadir than Bay and Bakool. Bay and Bakool have no political influence in SH nor do they have any way of getting it under their control using force since they have no force to begin with.

Its all a joke. They can claim anything they want. Its a circus. Bay and Bakool is Ukraine

[sahal80]

Sahal,

You recognize 2 of the parties yet You pay no attention to the other party, which is a segment that does not want to see a 3 or 6 region state period. The truth is Voltage is right When He says DJ is completely irrelevant because they are. The factors at play here are Ethiopia, AU, United Nations envoy to Somalia Nickolas Kay, because he is the wakiil of the donars. The Dawlad just rubber stamp approves whatever they say. According to You though it is the other way around that this Dawlad that cannot control a square km on their own and exists on donar funds dictates to the people funding, protecting and sheltering them and this is why people get so perplexed with You.
As for this situation, in My mind it is clear that the Dawlad was pretty much pressured to accept the 3 region state but they now have the advantage because D&M are completely split and divided on this. Tomorrow if the people in Baydhabo support Shariif Xassan and hte 3 region state there is nothing this dam jadiid can do about it besides approve it.

You and your voltage know shyt!

Dam jadid and sharif hassan are allied and have formed a parliemtarian coalition wich has ousted the ex pm saacid and have given the confidence to the new pm as he has his own members in the cabinet

Now you know how the country is run my naïve friend!

Sharif hassan said what I posted before and was there only to destroy the conference as he warned from other self-appointed presidents!

Now, just read his december statements wich reflects the govts interim vision(interim solutions) to see he has no agenda but the govts agenda!

"-Xildhibaan Shariif Xasan Sheekh Aadan ayaa si faahfaahsan uga hadlay warar kala duwan oo ka soo baxayay shirka Baydhabo oo ka qeybgalayaasha qaarkood sheegayeen in lix maamul goboleed lagu dhisayo.
Shariif Xasan oo lagu tuhunsan yahay inuu xiligaan xiriir fiican la leeyahay madaxtooyada Soomaaliya ayaa sheegay in shirka Baydhabo lagu soo dhisayo maamul Goboleed ka kooban ilaa 3 Gobol oo kaliya.
“ma jirto wararka sheegaya in maamul lix gobol ka kooban lagu soo dhisayo shirka Baydhabo,anagaa joogna meesha kaliya sedex gobol ayaa maamul dhisaneysa kuwaasoo kala ah Bay,Bakool iyo Shabeelaha hoose”ayuu yiri Shariif Xasan
Waxaa jira warar xitaa siyaasiyiin rere Baydhabo ah ay saxaafada u sheegeen oo ahaa in lix gobol maamul loo dhisayo kuwaasoo kala ah labada juba,Bay iyo bakool,Gedo iyo Shabeelaha hoose inkastoo hada wararkaasi uu meesha ka saaray shariif Xasan oo ka mid ah siyaasiyiinta aadka ugu lugta leh shirka Baydhabo.
Shariif Xasan oo si gaar ah ula hadlayay siyaasiyiinta bay iyo bakool ee damacoodu yahay inay lix maamul Goboled dhisaan isagoo tilmaamay inaaney caalamka ka gadmeyn talaabadaasi hadii la qaado.
“lix maamul goboleed oo jubooyinka iyo gedo ku jiraan ilama aha inay hada shaqeyn doonto hadii baydhabo looga dhawaaqo waayo jubooyinka iyo gedo hada waxay leeyihiin maamul ay dowlada Soomaaliya aqoonsantahay sidoo kale beesha caalamka ay aqoonsan tahay”ayuu yiri shariif Xasan
Xildhibaanka ayaa ugu baaqay reer Bay iyo bakool inay ku akeedaan sedex maamul goboleed hadii ay raban inay aqoonsi ka helaan beesha caalamka."

 

[Even123]

Brother sahal these guys in this thread know shit, their political analysis is based on their emotion of how they see rather on the realism of whats on the ground!,......bro sahal, everyone with an ounce of self respect as an analyst sees that the big card lies with the SFG and that the solution for South Somalia will be that a new conference will be made where SW'nuunow, SW'Sakiins, and Juba maamul madobe will be united as a federal state, a state build on 6 regions, that's the end game,and SFG is and will be the last decider for that.

[sahal80]

SH will never come under Baydhabo control. Anyone who even tries to entertain such an idea is deluded. SH is closer to SD and Banaadir than Bay and Bakool. Bay and Bakool have no political influence in SH nor do they have any way of getting it under their control using force since they have no force to begin with.

Its all a joke. They can claim anything they want. Its a circus. Bay and Bakool is Ukraine

All the communities in lower shabelle will get represented equally as they were all invited by the govt

According to the official plan, samaale garre, biimaal plus HW will dominate the delegations from lower shabelle

This will keep the southwest state allied with xamar as they have more in common and jawari will stay a weak speaker who has no say in the govt as dj controls his bases through sharif hassan.

[sahal80]

Brother sahal these guys in this thread know shit, their political analysis is based on their emotion of how they see rather on the realism of whats on the ground!,......bro sahal, everyone with an ounce of self respect as an analyst sees that the big card lies with the SFG and that the solution for South Somalia will be that a new conference will be made where SW'nuunow, SW'Sakiins, and Juba maamul madobe will be united as a federal state, a state build on 6 regions, that's the end game,and SFG is and will be the last decider for that.

Agree!

People like them don't know what is going on in the political circeles and just like the somali websites they often end up with shock!

Yesterday there were such titles like ethiopia oo iska fogesay sharif hassan!

Safiirka ethiopia oo shegey ineysan dhinac taageersaneen!

[hydrogen]

I agree with Murax, the D&M don't see what's happening you know one of Sakiin's guys shot a boy in Baydhabo, there are pictures of the boy bleeding out. I think he tried to attack Sakiin or something and that made people hate him even more and they wanted him out of Baydhabo.

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

we been saying this since the beginning.

[Murax]

Sahal,

You are entitled to believe whatever You want to believe.

[BigBreak]

[Bilis]

Like I said folks, the six region initiative was never going to pan out.

Neither the Federal Government, nor the UN Special Envoy to Somalia, nor the other national and international stakeholders are willing to scrap the hard-earned Jubaland state for a few disgruntled, delusional former MPs from Bay and Bakool. Fact is, the three-region state was always the only acceptable solution.

The only real surprise is that Sharif Sakin isn't the new President. His close associate is, though, so Sakin may now position himself as an eminence grise.