the gap between dam jadid and west
Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:36 pm
The somali regime is not a puppet regime as you may think, its led by a manipulative group that has their own exclusive agenda and play some geopolitical cards each time
There is the problem
At the start, the west has supported strongly hassan sheekh to the point that the bordering states were advising them not to adopt such a strategic decision quickly
Yes the west would have implemented that policy if he was capable to make an inclusive govt but he can't even pick his pm without having some subclan background due to his political, religious and clan adherences so, in this case, providing for him financial and military aid can be a disaster!
In other words, president hassan is a faithful supporter of a cause and he prefers this over the westreners backing!
Anyways its too late now so whats their plan?
Firstly you need to understand two important things
The west though at some times they would like to support a politicians with a political devotion that they can closely work with them, generally they don't care about somalis and who rules them bad or good unless they have links with al shabaab. they only have two polices: containing al shabaab disease inside somalia before it reaches them and wanting to invest in somalia to stop the china scramble and this needs stability being there so they support all these political settlements in somalia
As for the regeme, they can't change him because of being elected but will wait till its term ends meantime they would release reports that are disfiguring his image in preparation of that change however, dam jadid believes that they will get re-elected!
Other allies and the regimes biggest mistake
I always talked about turkey involving in the security policy but this plan may come to a halt because of miscalculations that was made by the regime who tried to involve this with the amisom/IGAD countries!
fearing from ethiopia and that the west may dislike it because of not wanting a geoplitical change in this region, they suggested to form a turkish-amisom/igad joint military committee that will deal with the SNA!
Turkey didn't like it and may got angery about it not because of suggesting this but this been agreed before between the govt and her wich is trying to help them and without a notice they changed the things!
Atleast if they made this known to turkey and released to her their fears she may had sorted it out with the west
Turkey who sees itself a big NATO country won't intertain about sitting in the same table with shyt like ethiopia, uganda and burundi!
Dam jadids new orientation, saudi-UAE policy
The arabs are badly divided between three camps; the saudi arabia/UAE, egypt, bahrain, the qatar, falastin, sudan camp the syrian, iraq camp so moving to saudi and UAE camp will be on the cost of qatar!
For more details here are some of my old posts.
by sahal80 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 2:05 pm
Firstly america has strongly welcomed hassan sheekhs accession to the power but at a time when the politics were on the verge of agravation they contacted with him and their clues were back then not too adjacent with his long term policies however he insisted all of his short term and long term plans and the agenda was postponed to this visit
Now, since the invitation, there have been a good political accomplishments like the peace agreements, reconciliations, national conferece vision2016...all of these accomplishments have been welcomed internationally.
This makes him a capable leader who can deliver his own national policies...however, it looks like the implementation could have a different tactics to make it more adjacent and central where the president plays dowr al bu toula(the starring role) and the speaker or the pm saying different things that goes along with their bases according to the tawzeec al adwaar policy( distibution of roles)
Some groups have won over others because of some situation and have been told to wait for the post-interim era as nothing states now anything except an agreement...are these groups preparing now for the contra attack where the world can hear their voices?
by sahal80 » Sat Jul 13, 2013 8:35 pm
Kenya and ethiopia are somalias most influential external players, these two countries are againist strong somali central state and told this to the west for a long time.
They only accept a fragmented somalia with some regions closely linked to them.
These two countries are the driver behind the federalism, thus, the somali politics should be fragmented along tribal lines based on three federal tribal states...
These countries have sent a lot of secret reports about somalia to the west, using the jihadist, refugee and security cards and indeed had a significant influence on them.
Though the westreners didn't approved all their suggestions but still all their clues about somalia are from these countries and this is why hassan sheekh is confronting all these external problems
Now what is the american position?
America has approved on hassan sheekhs 6 pillars policy in order to maintain stability and peace first but there is some clash between them wich is about the federalism. The US has asked him to appoint his interim governors but after this term ends has to bring the system closer to a genuine federalism by holding a regional elections...
All that is agreed, the problem is that Hassan sheekh wants the govt to control the port revenues in the federalism era so he refused to listen to their clues saying that he will rather resign than grant the federal states this status specifically in the south
The reason is that he fears such a federal state will have contracts with foreing countries on its port and resources and though getting and interim support he doesn't want to sign what could damage him in the long run.
There is the problem
At the start, the west has supported strongly hassan sheekh to the point that the bordering states were advising them not to adopt such a strategic decision quickly
Yes the west would have implemented that policy if he was capable to make an inclusive govt but he can't even pick his pm without having some subclan background due to his political, religious and clan adherences so, in this case, providing for him financial and military aid can be a disaster!
In other words, president hassan is a faithful supporter of a cause and he prefers this over the westreners backing!
Anyways its too late now so whats their plan?
Firstly you need to understand two important things
The west though at some times they would like to support a politicians with a political devotion that they can closely work with them, generally they don't care about somalis and who rules them bad or good unless they have links with al shabaab. they only have two polices: containing al shabaab disease inside somalia before it reaches them and wanting to invest in somalia to stop the china scramble and this needs stability being there so they support all these political settlements in somalia
As for the regeme, they can't change him because of being elected but will wait till its term ends meantime they would release reports that are disfiguring his image in preparation of that change however, dam jadid believes that they will get re-elected!
Other allies and the regimes biggest mistake
I always talked about turkey involving in the security policy but this plan may come to a halt because of miscalculations that was made by the regime who tried to involve this with the amisom/IGAD countries!
fearing from ethiopia and that the west may dislike it because of not wanting a geoplitical change in this region, they suggested to form a turkish-amisom/igad joint military committee that will deal with the SNA!
Turkey didn't like it and may got angery about it not because of suggesting this but this been agreed before between the govt and her wich is trying to help them and without a notice they changed the things!
Atleast if they made this known to turkey and released to her their fears she may had sorted it out with the west
Turkey who sees itself a big NATO country won't intertain about sitting in the same table with shyt like ethiopia, uganda and burundi!
Dam jadids new orientation, saudi-UAE policy
The arabs are badly divided between three camps; the saudi arabia/UAE, egypt, bahrain, the qatar, falastin, sudan camp the syrian, iraq camp so moving to saudi and UAE camp will be on the cost of qatar!
For more details here are some of my old posts.
by sahal80 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 2:05 pm
Firstly america has strongly welcomed hassan sheekhs accession to the power but at a time when the politics were on the verge of agravation they contacted with him and their clues were back then not too adjacent with his long term policies however he insisted all of his short term and long term plans and the agenda was postponed to this visit
Now, since the invitation, there have been a good political accomplishments like the peace agreements, reconciliations, national conferece vision2016...all of these accomplishments have been welcomed internationally.
This makes him a capable leader who can deliver his own national policies...however, it looks like the implementation could have a different tactics to make it more adjacent and central where the president plays dowr al bu toula(the starring role) and the speaker or the pm saying different things that goes along with their bases according to the tawzeec al adwaar policy( distibution of roles)
Some groups have won over others because of some situation and have been told to wait for the post-interim era as nothing states now anything except an agreement...are these groups preparing now for the contra attack where the world can hear their voices?
by sahal80 » Sat Jul 13, 2013 8:35 pm
Kenya and ethiopia are somalias most influential external players, these two countries are againist strong somali central state and told this to the west for a long time.
They only accept a fragmented somalia with some regions closely linked to them.
These two countries are the driver behind the federalism, thus, the somali politics should be fragmented along tribal lines based on three federal tribal states...
These countries have sent a lot of secret reports about somalia to the west, using the jihadist, refugee and security cards and indeed had a significant influence on them.
Though the westreners didn't approved all their suggestions but still all their clues about somalia are from these countries and this is why hassan sheekh is confronting all these external problems
Now what is the american position?
America has approved on hassan sheekhs 6 pillars policy in order to maintain stability and peace first but there is some clash between them wich is about the federalism. The US has asked him to appoint his interim governors but after this term ends has to bring the system closer to a genuine federalism by holding a regional elections...
All that is agreed, the problem is that Hassan sheekh wants the govt to control the port revenues in the federalism era so he refused to listen to their clues saying that he will rather resign than grant the federal states this status specifically in the south
The reason is that he fears such a federal state will have contracts with foreing countries on its port and resources and though getting and interim support he doesn't want to sign what could damage him in the long run.
