state defense forces(from local to national)

[sahal80]

Because of their national ideology, the new centeralists of mogadishu have stopped all the previous military plans like the army getting trained by the IGAD countries for fear of that they may become closely aligned with these countries interests as it happened before.

The case of the previous SNA

However, since they have been already trained as SNA, a new commanders will be allocated for them through re-integrattion programs and out of this will be considered as an out-lawed militias like what happened to some of the paramilitary groups like ahlusunna despite the ethiopian backing!

The previous SNA was lacking cohesion, it was an instrument for particular politicians, ex ministers and collaborationist warlords who used their official positions to form their own local SNA. The new centralists of mogadishu has succeeded to some level in forming a state defense forces, since dam jadids succession to the power, it was trained 5000 army forces by the local commanders besides moving the EU training program to the capital...

Why a foreing military help is a necessary?

A foreing military help is a necessary in this battle againist such a international terrorist armed organization in condition that their military policy is aligned with the govts agenda

In december 2011 baladweyne was liberated, today it has thousands of its local govt-aligned forces to the point only them and djibouti are operating in three districts and many villages, ethiopia has now moved to the eastren borders with galgaduud and has zero influence on the administration, this change is a result of president hassan appointing his governor for hiiraan in consultation with the local politicians.

in february 2012 baidoa was liberated, its SNA is aligned with the govt also its main politicians, its a different region since it belongs to one clan so you need to treat with them wisely...

in may 2012 al shabaab have lost afgoye followed by most of lower shabelle, there is a policy of dispanding many and making an internally consistant army in that region.

in september 2012 al shabaab have lost kismayo, several armed groups are presently active in the deep south between a non-aligned and pro-govt forces nevertheless, the govt has reintegration policy for that region.

The collapse of al shabaab as a military force

there are 3000 disengaged former al shabaab fighters...though there is still al shabaab regional badly equiped forces, its core power is now the so called amniyaat terrorists wich consist 500 loyal members who can wage such a dangerous terrorist attacks in the big towns, the more the security forces target their secret locations, the more less attacks happen(one of the solutions can be in a peper that I sent last week to the security advisers and its about forming the awakening(al saxawaat) council of xamar neighborhoods a policy that has succeeded in the terrorist effected sunni districts of baghdad wich was sponsered by the US)
Btw here sheikh doesn't stand for a religous figure rather a tribal figure(dhaqan)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sons_of_Iraq

An important indication of their disintegration is that in the last week some of al shabaab local amirs have dispanded their forces and began defecting or voluntrary surrendered to the govt.

Soon as the military operations come to end, in order to avoid more terrorist attacks, the govt may start an amnesty program, post-war disarmament and demobilization programs.

[sahal80]

Edit: paper.