Political Effects of the War in Lower Shabeele

[samatar133]

This war weakens federalist groups in Somalia and gives a new lease of life to unitary system backers. it will justify the government in Muqdisho to ignore all calls for federation at least in south central regions for now. it gives the government a perfect excuse to annex regions and rule them directly from Moqdisho minimizing the risk of the famous and the damaging accusation __ dawladu waxay ka soo hor jeedaa nimaadka federaalka iyo dastuurka dalka u yaal__ an accusation that have always caused problems for Moqdisho when it comes to financial and diplomatic support it gets from the west and the UN in general.

This is what I believe is gonna happen in the next weeks and months. A mixed government army will step in the Lower Shabeele and disarm both HG and Biyomaal militias. Then the government will integrate those militias to the national army. Then they will start ruling Lower Shabeele as they do in Moqdisho, collecting taxes, naming permanent governors and mayors that comes directly under the ministry of interior. Anyone who dares to talk about federalism in Lower Shabeele will be dismissed and accused of wanting the return of the clan wars and the anarchy. The Raxanweyn six region admin pipe dream dies as Lower shabele becomes and extension of Moqdisho.

If successful, this opens the door for the final game to be played in the middle and lower Jubas. A clan war, for example, between Biimaal and Shiikhaal can be created in Jilib and Jamaame districts, then the government again gets the perfect excuse to intervene militarily and occupy and rule those areas directly from Moqdisho repeating the same process Shabeele underwent. This can go on all the way to Kismaayo but now it is in Marka so let us observe how things evolve.

[FarhanYare]

For a people who claimed to be from a different country yall way too invested in the shebelle matter.

[Marques]

For a people who claimed to be from a different country yall way too invested in the shebelle matter.

He's an intelligent Isaaq. Meel dhexuu wax ka fiirinooya ma ahan sida kuwii jaadkii ka batay oo biyamaal xulufeysi la samaynaya...

[Hawdian]

Samatar

You know what the Hutus are up to and that's why we have to stop them. We need to empower many communities in the south who want their own semi-autonomous rule and self-determination including the Rahawein (the biggest and the most important one), Dir and even some of the Darods (to certain degree not those opposing Rahawein's rightful six state rule).

Re-instating RRA is key in this issue and getting Ethiopia to back the RRA 2.0 is equally important. The Rahawein are much closer to the Oromo linguistically and culturally than the Somalis of Somalia so their voices must be heard in Addis Ababa. Helping them achieve their long goal is vital.

In Somalia, the Rahawein are referred to as "Saab" or "Eeley", which is equivalent to sub-division or mere half of a whole person. We do not support such and we must help them gain freedom and in the process free others including the oppressed minority Biyamal, Surre, Jararweyne, Barawanis, Banadiris, etc.

We must recognizes the rights of the Maay nation and their minor brothers. The Maay nation's origin is Oromo. They were captured by hostile and barbaric southern Somalis, who used their women as concubines (to breed for them). The children were stolen and raised as Hawiye, Darod and others. The men were killed off. Against all odd, somehow Rahawein survived and regrouped. In the process they developed their own language which is an admixture of Somali and Oromiffa. They gave it the name "Maay" which is derived from the Somali word May or Maya (no) in reference to their resistance and resilience. Maya mana la babiin karo...

Survival is over. Now is the time to thrive and regain what was rightfully yours.

You can not look at this issue as mere reer feuding with another. It is perfect opportunity.

[gambit]

good observation which could be his agenda. which will lead to more suspicion from the federalist camp. constitution hasn't been finalized. this political tussle will go on for the forseeable future.seems like hawiye are finally getting their shit together if they did that in the 90's they couldve avoided this headache when there was no opposition after their opponents fled the country. but know you got outside interference, the federalists have established themselves although on shaky grounds in the kismayo. so we shall see the game continues..

[AbdiJohnson]

Federalism is the only system of government that is proven to work the best

However, Somalis will put it into disrepute with their clannism

I suggest the following

1) Bari, Nugaal, Mudug and Galgaduud = Desert State
2) Hiiraan, Bay, Bakool and Gedo = HBBG State
3) Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba = Farmland State

I am,

Abdi "Will be your leader" Johnson

[thegoodshepherd]

Kismayo
This is why jubaland was formed last year. The people of Juba saw the coming centralization of power coming from Mogadishu in December of 2012. It is also why the federal system was chosen to devolve power away from a one qabil city. This strategy of further centralization serves as a uniting force for Hawiye but is seen as a threat by darood. So this centralization ends in hawiye dominated land helping them forn a federal state. I welcome a united hawiye front as it will hurt alshabab and boost the safety of the country. But I don't expect that any non-hawiye areas will ever again come under the control of Mogadishu, maybe dejure control but not defacto control. No longer can Somalia be ruled from Mogadishu due to its one clan nature. The man in Luuq, Baardheere, Afmadow and Kismayo will never come under Mogadishu, that ship sailed away in 1991.

[Khalid Ali]

Actually samatar is right the government in Mogadishu wants to get rid of federalism they wish to show the international community that clan federalism will never work in Somalia, the wars in Lower shabelle the six state versus the 3 state the Jubba conflict , the Hiiraan galguduud state formation and the troubles there. The government in Mogadishu wants a decentralized Somali unitary state once they send troops and appoint a governor both the IC will not back the Clan backed federalism, its smart strategy by the Hawiyes in Mogadishu if you ask me.

[Even123]

OUR lost Messiah Aideed, His Vision, His Aim, His Somalia, His Soul reincarnated into our beloved Faarax Topaz.



Faarax Topaz (Messiah of all hawiye's) real leader of Somalia.