kurdistan, step closer to independence!

[sahal80]

As the iraqs richest oil province kirkuk has has fallen into the hands of the kurdish peshmerga(a highly trained kurdish forces) the importance of kurdistan is emerging quickly in the global markets!

Kirkuk is a multi-ethnic region though originally was a kurdish territory and the witness is the mountains as kurdish like to say often

During the ottoman rule, some turkish families have settled among them known as the turkman and then during the rule of the sunni regime, sunni arab tribes from mosul and around her have been moved to kirkuk!

For this reason its now considered as a disputed region that will enjoy a self-rule but is a part of the central govt and not the kurdish autonomy until a referendum was held

The referendum has been post-poned for a lot of times

50 percent of its population is kurdish the other 50 is turkman and arabs hence the last two are allies in one coalition party againist the kurdish majority so the power in the local council is based on 50/50 between the two parties except a few ancient religious groups

Since the fall of sadam, Kirkuk had its first kurdish governor

Baghdad and erbil had recently an oil conflict as turkish companies started importing the kurdish oil directly but no buyers except in some black markets in india and eastren europe for fear of baghdads blacklist to include any firm and country that imports "its stolen oil"

And regarding the turkish company, baghdad has started a legal process againist her in the international courts/chamber of commerces but the decision may take a year and half!

Now, as maliki is losing major iraqi towns such as mosul and tikrit for ISIS and lost kirkuk without a fight, he got himself into a weak position!

The west is suggesting to him to deal with kurdistan so their strong peshmerga can fight along side with his army instead of involving iran in this so it can send to him its revolutionary guard wich may widen the sectarian conflict also iran being a nighbour enemy of iraq!

This means maliki accepting the kurdistans independent oil sales if he wants a help!

Some law experts are even suggesting its better for iraq to deal with kurdistan because if the international courts grant her to have an independent oil deals it would mean kurdistan becoming an independent!

Bahgdad has fallen into the erbil trap when she stopped from her to get her share of the national income in response to her separate deals and since the iraqi constitution agrees kurdistan having a share in this, they must get their share in their hands if baghdad is ignoring this

However this argument is not yet enough but seems the new conflict in iraq is boosting the kurdistan chances not just to sell their regional oil but also to fill the state vacuum and secure the most important iraq oil field wich is kirkuk!

[thegoodshepherd]

This is exactly what may happen when Puntland starts to export oil without consulting the central gov

[gurey25]

This is exactly what may happen when Puntland starts to export oil without consulting the central gov

big difference ..

baghdad is a very weak state that is corrupt and divided,

but the administration in moqadishu is 100 times weaker.

if puntland finds oil, there is nothing that anyone can do, infact puntland gets into a position of superiority over moqadishu.

[thegoodshepherd]

Gurey, say S/L finds oil but its still unrecognized. How will S/L get around the issue of the central government's claim to all oil in Somalia??
Oil companies like legally water-tight agreements that can last decades.

[gurey25]

Gurey, say S/L finds oil but its still unrecognized. How will S/L get around the issue of the central government's claim to all oil in Somalia??
Oil companies like legally water-tight agreements that can last decades.

finding the oil is the problem not developing it or selling it.
if it is discovered you instantly have credit, even as an unrecognized state your credit rating goes through the roof, there will be competition,
to loan you the money to develop the fields.

lets say moqadishu gets some high quality lawyers and tries to sue in international courts,

not gonna work, because in Iraq countries and companies were scared of losing contracts they already had, with somalia there is nothing to lose
but everything to gain.
and there is always the blackmarket, right now smuggling oil from iran is huge, as long as you dont use the western banking system, like swift/iban
you can make huge profits.

[sahal80]

Gurey, say S/L finds oil but its still unrecognized. How will S/L get around the issue of the central government's claim to all oil in Somalia??
Oil companies like legally water-tight agreements that can last decades.

finding the oil is the problem not developing it or selling it.
if it is discovered you instantly have credit, even as an unrecognized state your credit rating goes through the roof, there will be competition,
to loan you the money to develop the fields.

lets say moqadishu gets some high quality lawyers and tries to sue in international courts,

not gonna work, because in Iraq countries and companies were scared of losing contracts they already had, with somalia there is nothing to lose
but everything to gain.
and there is always the blackmarket, right now smuggling oil from iran is huge, as long as you dont use the western banking system, like swift/iban
you can make huge profits.

There are two different processes; oil exploring rights and oil deals, mogadishu doesn't care too much about the oil exploration contracts bc no one knows yet if there's oil and not and bc it won't cost her too, once the oil was found, some believe that the regions will deal with mogadishu to stop her contacting with the iternational chamber of commerce wich doesn't accept any out-lawed business, these experts believe that the money hungery politicians from such poor somali regions will be forced to become under the govts energy company.

Others believe that turkey will get them together and this is part of her policy in somalia!.

[gurey25]

that is a no..
any politician that attempts to give up soveriegty will get lynched.
I am sure allot of Somaliland politicians would love to sell out , but they love their lives more than their money.

There is a difference between us, in Somaliland,
the government is still scared of the shacab.

and international chamber of commerce can suck my ceeb.. to be honest..

They dont play a big role like you think..
but if you scenario plays out i would be over the moon with joy, because it will effect the current western companies and future big oil majors.
There are other oil companies out there willing to take risks, and engage in " illegal" activities.
There are many scenarios where production can be done involving international companies all under the table,
and there is a willing market.

trust me there is little stopping us.
Our biggest worry is further delays in exploration.

[sahal80]

that is a no..
any politician that attempts to give up soveriegty will get lynched.
I am sure allot of Somaliland politicians would love to sell out , but they love their lives more than their money.

There is a difference between us, in Somaliland,
the government is still scared of the shacab.

and international chamber of commerce can suck my ceeb.. to be honest..

They dont play a big role like you think..
but if you scenario plays out i would be over the moon with joy, because it will effect the current western companies and future big oil majors.
There are other oil companies out there willing to take risks, and engage in " illegal" activities.
There are many scenarios where production can be done involving international companies all under the table,
and there is a willing market.

trust me there is little stopping us.
Our biggest worry is further delays in exploration.

I'm talking generally not about a particular region.

Some say, as turkey is somalias creditor, it may use the govt for her economical interests. That means if any turkishh company operates some where else, it may go away with it but in away that the govt gets its share in some arrangements

Means the turkish company will pay the both sides

Now as saudi arabia and the UAE are about to collect money for the govt there's a believe of this influencing on the relationship with turkey. Things may change with turkey though not radically.

[Substance]

Independence means little in this region. I doubt the ISIS will spare the kurds when they take over the rest of Iraq. Those oil rich regions will be contested over.

[gurey25]

I'm talking generally not about a particular region.

Some say, as turkey is somalias creditor, it may use the govt for her economical interests. That means if any turkishh company operates some where else, it may go away with it but in away that the govt gets its share in some arrangements

Now as saudi arabia and the UAE are about to collect money for the govt there's a believe of this influencing on the relationship with turkey. Things may change with turkey though not radically.

Turkish economy is heavily in debt, and the debt is the worst kind, short term debts.
they have had to resort to short term loans from the UAE and Saudia, this is why they have been quite about support for the ikhwan.
They dont want to upset the Saudis and UAE further because these two are keeping the turkish economy from dropping.

The cause for this problem is too much fuel imports, turkey desperately needs access to cheaper fuel.
This is why it is breaking Iran sanctions, and this is why they will deal with kurdistan.
If there is oil discovered in Somaliland, turkey will be the first customer, even though Genel is no longer a Turkish company, the main shareholder is the Rothschilds.

[Khalid Ali]

The Kurds stand no chance Turkey is breathing on their Necks Erdogan disband the PKK long time ago the iraqi kurds might gain some momentum under the missteps of Al maliki, but it will not be much. There is allot of disputed areas between The Suni iraqis and The Kurds especially around Kirkuk .And Gurey is right Oil companies will really go behind all lines to make more profit even if they have to deal with Rogue states adiguna Somali kala tala baad sheegeysa.

[gurey25]

Independence means little in this region. I doubt the ISIS will spare the kurds when they take over the rest of Iraq. Those oil rich regions will be contested over.

Kurdistan is not Iraq, they are battle hardened and have the will to fight, infact they are like somalis and Pathans, they love a good fight,.
add the fact that they have been recieving training from Isreali special forces since the 90's.
It is no wonder that they are the strongest force in Iraq right now.
Almalaki has over 500,000 troops, and loads of weapons but they are useless because ISIS with only 1300 men, made 30,000 Iraqi army troops run away and change uniforms.
Peshmerga can deploy 150,000 men all with experience , skill and eager to fight.
Their only real opposition are the PASADRAN that are quitly infiltrating Iraq and hiding inside the new Shia millitias and they report to 2 lieutenents of Qasem Suliemani the Guru that is running Assads war and one of the guys that trained and developed Hezbollah.

ISIS will not advance, they know they cannot take Baghdad or kirkuk.
Baghdad is now full of highly skilled Shia millitias with elite Pasadran hiding within them and led by experienced Iranian generals,
and Kirkuk is in the hands of the Peshmerga that gave Saddams troops a good fight.

[sahal80]

The Kurds stand no chance Turkey is breathing on their Necks Erdogan disband the PKK long time ago the iraqi kurds might gain some momentum under the missteps of Al maliki, but it will not be much. There is allot of disputed areas between The Suni iraqis and The Kurds especially around Kirkuk .And Gurey is right Oil companies will really go behind all lines to make more profit even if they have to deal with Rogue states adiguna Somali kala tala baad sheegeysa.

Turkeys greed and dealing with kurdistan directly may back fire them if the international courts grant kurdistan this independence! It will open the door for kurdistan to become an independent country specially baghdad getting worse and kurdistan securing the oil fields!.

[gurey25]

Erdogan doesnt care, if its the choice between economic disaster,and loss of power for AK party, or Kurdistan he will choose Kurdistan.
But Erdogan will coordinate policy with Iran, Iran has better relations with Irbil.

[Substance]

Gurey, thats good insight and numbers that i was not even aware of but ISIS strenghts is their asymmetric warfare and their overall tactics involving bombs and suicide. The kurds can fight in a normal warfare as they have proven against the turks but how is their counterinsurgency and can they deal with the propaganda coming from ISIS? They probably have cells installed in the kurdish regions. I think aswell that the ISIS have the quiet blessing of America and Israel. This might be one of the reasons Bagdad will fall. The strategy being played is divide and conquer with the aim to weaken Iran and Syria.