jubaland, central state, greenland wich 1 will work out fir?

[sahal80]

Sayid madobe and col barre hiiraale reaching an agreement of 50/50 power sharing, gedo governor visiting kismayo and the conference followed by the parliament

Central somalia administrations reaching an agreement to establish one central state

The expected hiiraan and middle shabelle state headquartered in buloburde

Wich one will work out first?

For me I think that central state is closer to success for having security, there are some plans of djibouti going there if they need any help in the security sector(more 400 djibouti troops will arrive)

Jubbaland has more deeper conflict but some compromise was reached lately, al shabaab still controls a whole province so I guess it will have more security problems than the rest

Hiiraan and middle shabelle has more security problems than political problems.

I didn't add south-west bc its the mother of conflicts.

[GIJaamac]

In this order:

1.Hiiraan+M/Shabelle state
2.Central state
3.South-western state
4. Jubba state

If they ever become reality.

[The`Republic]

Lol. The topic is a joke.

Jubbaland is like 85% there.

None of the others even have 5% breakthrough.

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Sayid madobe and col barre hiiraale reaching an agreement of 50/50 power sharing, gedo governor visiting kismayo and the conference followed by the parliament

Central somalia administrations reaching an agreement to establish one central state

The expected hiiraan and middle shabelle state headquartered in buloburde

Wich one will work out first?

For me I think that central state is closer to success for having security, there are some plans of djibouti going there if they need any help in the security sector(more 400 djibouti troops will arrive)

Jubbaland has more deeper conflict but some compromise was reached lately, al shabaab still controls a whole province so I guess it will have more security problems than the rest

Hiiraan and middle shabelle has more security problems than political problems.

I didn't add south-west bc its the mother of conflicts.

Excellent analysis.

[sahal80]

Sayid madobe and col barre hiiraale reaching an agreement of 50/50 power sharing, gedo governor visiting kismayo and the conference followed by the parliament

Central somalia administrations reaching an agreement to establish one central state

The expected hiiraan and middle shabelle state headquartered in buloburde

Wich one will work out first?

For me I think that central state is closer to success for having security, there are some plans of djibouti going there if they need any help in the security sector(more 400 djibouti troops will arrive)

Jubbaland has more deeper conflict but some compromise was reached lately, al shabaab still controls a whole province so I guess it will have more security problems than the rest

Hiiraan and middle shabelle has more security problems than political problems.

I didn't add south-west bc its the mother of conflicts.

Excellent analysis.

Thanks imam.

[sahal80]

In this order:

1.Hiiraan+M/Shabelle state
2.Central state
3.South-western state
4. Jubba state

If they ever become reality.

Disagree some of your opinion. The central state have more in comon politically than hiiraan and middle shabelle also have other basic factors such as security.

[sahal80]

Lol. The topic is a joke.

Jubbaland is like 85% there.

None of the others even have 5% breakthrough.

Lol some of the jubbaland issues are not even local, regions like puntland and countries are part of it, this after being the last refugee for al shabaab

There are no local conflicts inside the other states except the south-west(lower shabelle) and kismayo

Both hiiraan&middle shabelle and the central state, people will stay in their home towns though they have a right to live in the political capital.

[original dervish]

Who are you trying to fool?
Shabaab will find refuge in the Hawiye heartlands.
Hiiran, S/Hoose &S/Dhexe are all on fire.

J/Land people are in total agreement....Barre Hiraale was the last card of the spoilers from Mog.

[sahal80]

Who are you trying to fool?
Shabaab will find refuge in the Hawiye heartlands.
Hiiran, S/Hoose &S/Dhexe are all on fire.

J/Land people are in total agreement....Barre Hiraale was the last card of the spoilers from Mog.

Lol I guess your some northern diaspora who never heard of south!

my analysis are based on the critical thinking not on the emotional hoohaa!

What if I post for you a map of al shabaabs early days that doesn't include hiiraan and galgaduud?

Once al shabaab was only controlling jubooyinka and lower shabelle!

Then they have taken control of baay

Hiiraan was the last to be annexed by al shabaab!

Hiiraan had an official governor till november 2009 when he dissolved the adminstration peacefully and was declared being hispil islam

Al shabaab arrived in 2010!

Jubooyinka is known as "somalia jihads last stand"

Kismayo was under al shabaab since august 2008!

Ethiopia left somalia in december 2009!

It took nearly a year for kenya to capture kismayo!

Jubbada dhexe is fully under al shabaab.

As for barre hiiraale, yes the tribal war has ended but the political war has started!

Yuulka plans to run for the presidential elections hoping to use his saudi/ UAE relations as their candidate in somalia, so, he's trying to make jubbaland his constituency

Once he fails, like the case of abdiwali gaas, he will land in kismayo!

This is the reason why he's now cooperating with kenya in many issues like her somali refugees to get her endorsement!

Some informations say that madobe is worry of his kenyan relations so he welcomed farah abdulqadir to kismayo(with halane and godah) and accepted their deal in wich the pm failed earlier to reach it in order to give back the initiative to the presidents wing!

The adversity between the interior and the pm is because the interior represents presidents policies in the country!

There's already a political settlement in hiiraan&middle shabelle initiative

Hassan sheekh who belongs to both sides and hails from buloburde(was born in jalalaqsi but lived in buuloburde until high school) is giving the power in hiiraan to his direct abtiyaal( hawadle are divided into farmers and nomads, he hails maternally from the farmers...since the TFG, the nomads were controlling hiiraan bc of their military role but now the farmers make the policies so they have a candidate among them called adde duqoow from adan warsame subclan wich is a neutral subclan that are culturally farmers but clan-wise are related to the nomads, very popular omar hashi hails from them)

So, they are making the capital buloburde and abgaal will keep the leadership and will be rotation ofter two terms)

At the same time mudulood will strength hawadle position in banadir and the federal govt

Its already fait accompli!.


As for the central state, only one district was under the control of al shabaab not a PROVINCE!

Politically they are one camp, no leadership conflict out of HG, not like the jubbaland wich got a leadership conflict!.

[original dervish]

Listen sxb.....Al Shabaab will not be defeated.....they will remain in the central regions.
J/Land will be all but independent from Xamar.

Record these predictions.

[sahal80]

Listen sxb.....Al Shabaab will not be defeated.....they will remain in the central regions.
J/Land will be all but independent from Xamar.

Record these predictions.

lol are you thick? What this has got to do with xamar? I'm talking on a regional level!

What's your points of al shabaab moving to central somalia and not to jubbooyinka?

Don't you know they only had one district aka ceelbuur in galgaduud

As the road between xamar and hiiraan was opened they got no access! How can they stay?

On the other hand you got a whole province aka jubbada dhexe controlled by al shabaab!

Lastly, history tells us that jubooyinka was always their last stand and the first to recapture!!

Is not this big lesson for you? There has been many camps/mocaskaraat since the early 90s!

Give me a figures not your opinions!.

[Murax]

Jubbaland is a closed deal. Some Marehan were willing to work with Jubba, the faction of Col Barre Hiiraale was not. Now that Barre Hiiraale and Jubba reached some sort of understanding, MR/OG politically are pretty much on the same page. The rest I hate to say are not relevant enough to be a opposition.

[sahal80]

Jubbaland is a closed deal. Some Marehan were willing to work with Jubba, the faction of Col Barre Hiiraale was not. Now that Barre Hiiraale and Jubba reached some sort of understanding, MR/OG politically are pretty much on the same page. The rest I hate to say are not relevant enough to be a opposition.

I didn't ask you about jubbaland rather the whole federal regions!

For jubbaland, the military war may come to end but a massive political war is on the way

Barre hiiraale will disappear, madoobe may go by 2015 where's likely gandi to be elected

As for gedo folks who may replace barre hiirales wing, they will be from yuulka and may enter coalition with gandhi and then he may become his political river when he leaves xamar

For this interim era madoobe and barre will share power 50/50

I think jubbaland has a leadership problem plus more al shabaab

Now wich federal state/state you think will establish first in all its institutional, political and military meanings?

[Murax]

Jubbaland is a closed deal. Some Marehan were willing to work with Jubba, the faction of Col Barre Hiiraale was not. Now that Barre Hiiraale and Jubba reached some sort of understanding, MR/OG politically are pretty much on the same page. The rest I hate to say are not relevant enough to be a opposition.

I didn't ask you about jubbaland rather the whole federal regions!

For jubbaland, the military war may come to end but a massive political war is on the way

Barre hiiraale will disappear, madoobe may go by 2015 where's likely gandi to be elected

As for gedo folks who may replace barre hiirales wing, they will be from yuulka and may enter coalition with gandhi and then he may become his political river when he leaves xamar

For this interim era madoobe and barre will share power 50/50

I think jubbaland has a leadership problem plus more al shabaab

Now wich federal state/state you think will establish first in all its institutional, political and military meanings?

Somalis will always be Somalis. If You're saying they will continue isqabsi and kala daadsanaan until Yaum Qiyaama I will not say You're wrong. However tribally, Barre Hiiraale was always going to be a important figure within Marehan and really He was the only real faction that was die hard against this Jubbaland thing as constructed. Now that He is in the fold the general conflict between Marehan/Ogaden has ended. Furturmore Marehan until Barre came on board were split 50/50 and this made them weaker. Now that they are in 100% their stature in future Jubbaland institutions will ofcourse increase.

[THE_TRUTH1]

lets say they all work out jubaland, central state, greenland

which State will dominate in

population

most District

economic