sahal / syria

[waryaa]

Bro sahal, I read some stuff on Syria last nite and u came to mind.

Is it true that US & co is arming factions including aqaeda guys, nusra something?

Also, the coalition is bombing ISIS while Assad is doing the same to the rest. You have coalition and Assad planes crisscrossing the sky, not attacking each other but each targeting half of the rebels! Something very serious is wrong with this.

The article I read says rebels, including alqaeda are getting training and weapons on one condition: you cannot use these weapons and acquired skills through training against Asad regime. I tried to post it here but it disappeared into googleverse.

[SultanOrder]

The U.S. and co (Turkey, Qatar, Saudi) have been arming and training opposition covertly this whole time. The U.S. Congress finally authorized a bill to train and equip 5k screened "moderate" rebels to fight against ISIS. Legally they can't support a rebel force to fight against a legitimate government. But so far this has been a disaster and they haven't even gotten a thousand men let alone 5k. But that is a side show.

The Saudis, Qataris, and Turks last year pledged to coordinate and work together to arm and support the rebels fighting Assad. This facilitated the union of different rebel factions such as Ahrar AsSham, Nusra Front, Free Syrian Army, and a host of other groups under one umbrella group called Jaysh Al Fatah (Army of Conquest) which has seriously crippled Assad's army took over the second regional Capitol to fall Idlib, threatens to cut off Aleppo from support, opens access to Latakia the Alwalite homeland, and Homs the start of the revolution.

The U.S. Coalition is not active binging ISIS because ISIS became too hard of a target blending into the population. And Assad can only drop barrel bombs which are not accurate and just kill civilians.

[waryaa]

Sult, it is very complicated. I don't think Obama is restrained by Asad's legitimacy. That's not the case because they have been working with oppositions openly for a long time. In my opinion Russia or maybe Iran drew a line on the sand.

Saudi Arabia may also feel the heat in the coming years, especially if democrats win next year. SA is between Shia (Iran/Yemen/Iraq/syria) on one side and ISIS on the other.

Do you think a coalition of many different groups have the capacity to govern, if lets say miracles happen and asad/Isis are defeated?

[SultanOrder]

Legally Obama can not openly arm rebels to overthrow a legitimate and recognized government. That is why despite covert actions the administration has never openly admitted it. This is also why they can only arm and train rebels for the sole purpose of fighting ISIS. Remember US bombs ISIS in Syria but not Assad, because of legal ramifications.


I don't know, even with Assad gone there is still ISIS. With ISIS gone then even the remaining rebels only came together to fight a common enemy once gone there will be infighting.

[waryaa]

it is a crazy world, each group is fighting multiple fronts.

[gegiroor]

@SultanOrder, US and its allies armed the Al-Qaeda forces that were fighting against the legitimate government of Libya. Not only that, but NATO participated the air assault against the Libyan Government. Therefore, there is no legitimacy that stop them from attacking Assad. It was actually Russia who put breaks on the attacks against Syrian Government forces.

The recent bombing against ISIS has served two purposes: (1) The "ISIS" force in Iraq are the Baathists, Republican Guard remnants, and other Sunni mainstream factions who want to restore the Sunni place in Iraq. US has a strategic partnership with Iran that they are both defending the sectarian Shia government in Baghdad; (2) The other purpose is to use the excuse against ISIS in order to provide an air coverage to the newly trained mercenaries against Syrian Government forces once these mercenaries are ready; right now, they are being trained by Saudi Arabia. Mind you both Baathists in Iraq and Baasthists in Syria are somewhat allied and seems to be cooperating at some level.

Another thing that has gone against Assad is that the recent US - Iran rapprochement has left the Syrian ruler in a hard place. Iran wants the Shia place - remember not Alawites - in Syria and Lebanon secured in exchange for its abandoning Assad. This is a main reason why CIA is cooperating with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The estimated budget allocated to these units in 2014 was more than $65bn. The 29-page security assessment for 2015 was remarkable this time as it ruled out Iran and Hezbollah from being threats to the United States. The question is: What are the causes and consequences for America to exclude both Hezbollah and Iran from their terror list?

http://thepeninsulaqatar.com/views/poli ... reat-to-us

US has also been encouraging Alawites to abandon Assad as well, and there has been huge discussion within the Alawites that if they will be able to withstand with all of the pressures coming from many sides, and the unreliability of Russia and Iran as time goes by and the conflict rages on.

Within the US political establishment, there is also a huge debate whether it is a good policy to go after Assad forces at this time.

Russia is also signaling of abandoning Assad (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340 ... 72,00.html).

All in all, things don't look good for Assad; however, as one American analyst put it, "don't get your expectation too high for his immediate fall."

[gegiroor]

it is a crazy world, each group is fighting multiple fronts.

There are forces who run all sides in order to reach an objective. World War I and II have resulted the creation of new financial power - the USA, the reorientation of the entire continent of Europe, the expulsion of Jews from Europe, the creation of Israeli state in the Holy Land, and the formation of the UNSC that protects Israel.

The next phase of World War III is on - the creation of Zion from Euphrates to the Nile. All of the groups fighting in the Middle East today, including all of the states involved, are not different than all of the groups and states who were fighting in World War I and II. They were are all still run and guided.

[sahal80]

Sorry boss, just seen the thread now

No the syrian rebels dont get financial support at all

at the beginning of the syrian revolution, in 2011, the situation was totally different as there was only the FSA

At this time they used to receive a very small military aid from the US govt

this organization was close to overthrow assad by controlling the majority of the country including the majority of damascus except some parts of the the city center and its westren part-mezza and kafrsousa- where the govts institutions and the alawite presence r mainly found due to massive army defections and the locals participation until 2013 when the iran-led shia intervention began such as al haras al tawri-iran- hezbullah, abul fadl al abbas militia-iraq- and regained all the lost territories in damascus- jobar, qaboun, barza, harasta the westren and eastren qalamoun, southren damascus and the westren ghouta let alone the majority of homs and aleppo. FSA was fully in control of raqa, deir al zour, hasaka except the airports

The shia intervention has led the rise of the islamist groups and the fall of the FSA

Since then no support at all but there r two groups who may get small support from qatar and saudi arabia secretly as the west is against this, qatar backs ahrar asham while jaysh al islam is a saudi proxy militia

Al nusra doesnt receive shyt. Before the split they used to get support from al baghdadi

this is how assad regained all the lost territory with the help of iran and hezbullah

The video is too old-2013- so it doesnt include the regime-held harasta and westren qalamoun

Rebels still control most of the eastren ghouta like douma and some of the southren suburbs that r under seige

Now jaysh al islam seems to have recieved orders from saudi arabia to secure the damascus-homs highway, the IS road to damascus so theres now big war against the regime but its indirectly against IS to prevent assad from getting westren backing

since 2015, islamists have regained all idlib, the majority of aleppo, homs, hama and the shia r losing the war in every front, just IS controls 50 percent of the country and is very close damascus-homs highway wich leads to both the capital and westren qalamoun just around the corner from lebanon

IS has also presence in southren damascus, north eastren suwayda and eastren qalamoun so its homs troops moving closer to these bases means the fall of damascus

So now the west has gone crazy and wants to save the capital by any means including accepting assad as a "transitional legitimacy"

So they r calling for political solution and have stopped their support for the suuthren front-daraa- wich is mainly FSA

Russia is sending troops to save assad.. this is why IS useful to assad!

damascus before 2013

[GAMES]

So ISIS only got involved when Hezbollah and Iran joined and started supporting Asad?

If the FSA was winning against Asad, why didn't they tell ISIS to leave, because it would give them a bad rep?

[26June1960]

f-king tired of hearing Syria this Syria that. I couldn't careless about what happens to Syria really.

[sahal80]

So ISIS only got involved when Hezbollah and Iran joined and started supporting Asad?

If the FSA was winning against Asad, why didn't they tell ISIS to leave, because it would give them a bad rep?

its like how al shabab took over the courts bc of the ethiopian intervention

The westren modafakers r now trying to keep assad so they can use him as "legitimacy" to save the capital

recently IS has moved next to al maydan region-city center- this makes them closer to the capital than the other factions so they gone crazy

IS controls directly damascus-tadmur-baghdad highway, theres some regime forces between them and those at al faraqlis.. if they defeat these troops they will be moving next to their bases in this highway-bir al qasab between suwayda and damascus-. If this happens they will connect to their bases in xay al qadam, just 5km from the city center!!

Another scenario is them capturing homs-damascus highway and some villages in there like muhiin and hawareen coming from al faraqlas, they also reached the hezbullahi-held qusayr and the lebanese borders on the top

So they can attack this highway from two sides

In case they defeat the regime forces along this highway, jaysh al islam will be waiting them at the eastren qalamoun(the right side of the highway) thats why JAL has secured this side of thighway in the last couple of days!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DEwrI6bD-G8/V ... _large.jpg

IS in southren damascus, the most scaring scenario-damascus-tadmur/tanaf-baghdad highway-al badiya-

Connecting all of its bases in dumayr, bir al qasab and xay al qadam!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JGtkyID3gKM/V ... 014_R2.jpg

[GAMES]

That makes alot of sense Sahal80. It seems like Syria has become a battle ground for Arabs vs. Persians, Sunnis vs. Shia, Saudi Arabia vs. Iran.

And the poor Syrians are caught in the middle, masaakiin. And with Russia now arming Asad, the west would arm the opposition.

Poor Syrian civilians are caught in the middle.

[sahal80]

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[sahal80]

And with Russia now arming Asad, the west would arm the opposition.

get the f-king point man!. Since 9/11 russia, the west and iran have been cooperating against "the sunni terrorism"

The only faction that the west was backing was the FSA and this is what they told them; stop your so called southren storm and get ready for negotiation with assad!

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sourc ... msL_BvfsVA
http://all4syria.info/Archive/250119
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports ... l-solution

As for the al nusra-led northern front aka jaysh al fatah, they will stop it through other mechanisms and turkey and now is not anymore active like it used to be

Turkey, qatar and saudi arabia have told ahrar asham, the ikhwan-affliated faylaq ash sham and jaysh al islam and other "moderate factions" to create a new war room that will not include al nusra and will replace JAF

the main target of this army willl be IS in aleppo

In an interview with al nusra leader some months ago he said the reason why we dont accept aid from the sunni intelligences is bc they will tell us when, where to fight and where not to fight!

when they finally gain full control of this supposed new war room, they will tell them to stop the war and enter negotiation with the regime

They will tell them its just transitional govt and assad will not play any role after that

This transitional govt will comprise the regime-alawite-, its druze and christian allies, the southren and northern fronts and kurds

By this union, the transtional govt will control half of the country and a new war will be launched against IS in homs, raqa, deir al zour, hassaka and aleppo

This is dangerous for the sunna bc shia can change their mind despite all these westren guarentees, atleast they will be in a safe position after all the genocides they committed in syria

They got their own nick kay who used to be against assad but now he suggested to the security council to form a transitional body

Russia and the US must agree on assads fate...russia and iran would rather keep the regime than assad as an Individual

Assad supports the politucal solution bc he lost the war but since IS is on the gates of damascus and they need legitimacy in there, he uses this card to lead this transitional govt for some years and then influence on the new parliament who will elect the president so he rejected the UK suggestion of him leading transitional govt for up to 6 months

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... government

iran is looking for his successor similar to maliki scenario-another alawite president who will lead a longer transition-

Syria is heading to become like lebanon and assad wants to be a sect leader(an alawite leader) in this "democratic" govt instead of other alawites

Al nusra is heading to reunite with IS(jund al aqsa and al nusra faction in southren damascus r already allied with IS and r against abou mariya al qahtani, the man whos behind al nusra cooperation with the moderate rebels and FSA)