Iran’s S-300: A Russian deal or a Sino-Russian deal?

[gurey25]

Iran’s S-300: A Russian deal or a Sino-Russian deal?

BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR on AUGUST 19, 2015 in CHINA, M.K. BHADRAKUMAR, MIDDLE EAST
From all accounts, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had a highly successful visit to Moscow on Monday. The single biggest outcome of his talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov should be the signing of the contract for the delivery of upgraded S-300 missiles by Russia to Iran.

The official Russian media reported that the delivery of the missile systems will take place 30-40 days after the signing of the agreement in Moscow (which is expected to be on Aug. 25.)

There is much political symbolism here insofar as Moscow is plainly mocking at the timeline of the US Congress’s approval/disapproval of the Iran nuclear deal will be mid-September. Clearly, as far as Moscow is concerned, Iran’s integration with the world community is deemed to have happened already.

Of course, the S-300 is not covered by any sanctions, since it is categorized as a “defensive” weapon. Nonetheless, the White House has protested. And, to be sure, this time around Moscow will ignore the protest.

Russian S-300-missile defense system
Russian S-300-missile defense system
Without doubt, Russia is asserting its determination to strengthen its strategic ties with Iran. Even after the sanctions are removed, no western power is likely to step forward to supply sophisticated weapons to Iran for a foreseeable future. Russia’s standing as the number one supplier of military technology to Iran is virtually guaranteed.

The American and Israeli experts have admitted that the S-300 will be a game changer in the strategic balance in the Middle East, since it is a formidable weapon that will make an air attack on Iran very prohibitively expensive. In political terms, therefore, what Russia is doing is to provide an underpinning for Iran’s ‘strategic autonomy’, which Moscow no doubt sees as in its self-interests too in the prevailing geopolitical scenario in the region.

Iran’s ‘strategic autonomy’ has big implications for its capacity to withstand the pressure from the US and its regional allies and play an effective role in Syria and Iraq, where Moscow and Tehran have cooperated closely. The recent Iranian statements have comprehensively debunked the whispering campaign in the western and Arab media that Tehran is disengaging from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. On the contrary, the indications are that Iran is probably stepping up its support of the Assad regime against the backdrop of the US intention to commence air strikes in Syria.

Zarif’s visit to Moscow on Monday enabled the two countries to choreograph the long-term development of Russo-Iranian strategic ties in the new setting of the Iran nuclear deal. On the eve of Zarif’s arrival in Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Moscow’s political dialogue with Tehran had “recently become more relevant.” The statement, which was conspicuously effusive in tone, described Iran as one of Russia’s “closest regional partners” with which a “high level of mutual understanding” and “intense practical cooperation” exists.

It underscored the desire for closer coordination between the two countries on a range of international issues and said, “The advancement of our foreign policy cooperation will help strengthen peace ad stability in the Caspian region, in Central Asia, and the Middle and Near East.”

At a joint press conference with Zarif following the talks, Lavrov mentioned that the two countries shared “convergent views” regarding Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and Libya insofar as they “advocate settling the issues in these countries through national dialogue without external interference or imposing any formulas” – an open rejection of the US’ prescriptive approach.

All in all, therefore, S-300 deal also provides a barometer to take the temperature of the Russian-American ties. From the latest reading, the temperature is hovering around sub-zero level.

But that is not the whole story. The fact remains that China is also waiting in the wings. A commentary in the government-owned China Daily on Monday was the latest report speculating on a deal in the pipeline for the supply by China of the J-10 multi-role fighter jet to Iran. The report suggested that not only is the J-10 a “good option for Iran … capable of performing air-to-surface strikes and anti-ship strikes” but “China is also very flexible in payment issues” and “it is highly possible that Chinese aviation industry will transfer technology used on the J-10 to buyers.”

Other reports had mentioned that China and Iran are discussing a deal for the supply of 150 of the J-10 fighter jets. Curiously, an earlier report featured by People’s Daily last week mentioned that China and Russia would pursue a coordinated strategy “to give Iran’s armed forces a boost” by way of hitting back at the US for its containment strategies against them. To be sure, the big question today is whether the delivery of the S-300 system by end-September is tantamount to an opening Sino-Russian salvo of its kind being fired from Moscow aimed at Washington, with Beijing preparing to follow up soon.

(Copyright 2015 Asia Times Holdings Limited, a duly registered Hong Kong company. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

[LeJusticier]

Allahu Akbar

[gurey25]

Iran is almost out of the woods, they will be protected and will be under the Russo-Chinese umbrella
all they had to do was to ditch the nukes.
Iranians are not idiots nuclear program was a bargaining chip to extract concessions from the west and from Russia.

Now lets see if they could pull off their most ambitious target, North Korea.
They plan to do the same but on a more ambitious scale...

Get the NK's to ditch the nuclear program while at the same time formalizing a much clearer treaty protecting them from US adventures.
Everyone knows that NK's nuckes will be knocked out in the first minutes of a war breaking it, the North koreans are using them as a bargaining chip much like iran was , the difference is that they have working weapons while the iranians have parts of a program.

By Successfully saving Iran from the clutches of the Empire of Chaos, they have a stronger case to present to the North Koreans.
If they go for it, even a half hearted re-conciliation program will get the South Koreans to ditch the Empire and ask it to remove its bases.
China wants to use the carrot, right now Most of South Koreas trade and investments are linked to china.
It will be part of the ancient tributary system of the middle kingdom just like it was for hundreds of years till 1900.
There is a cultural integration as well, Chinese love Korean fashion and culture while there are tens of thousands of South Koreans living working and studying in China.

Taiwan has already been swallowed by China,
Taiwan will not last a week because its economy is 100% dependent on China, they have integrated so deep, out of greed that they are now more beholden to Beijing than Washington.
Ofcourse the US still has too many strings to pull, strings that can trigger Chaos as usual.

Its worrying because there is now a chance for a real contest.
20 years ago the Chinese navy would have been no match for Singapore much less anyone else.
10 years ago they would not have put a dent on Taiwans defenses or the US navy.
Today they would probably lose more assets but still meet their strategic objectives by wiping out a carrier group or 2 for heavy losses.
Imagine what would happen if the current rate of growth is maintained for another 10 years.
China would be gaurenteed victory and will have supremacy in the south china sea..

The US would have to start a war within 5 years if they want to have a chance at victory..

scary isnt it.

[gurey25]

The S-300 sounds great but most people other than those that have kept up with events will understand the hidden meaning and the subterfuge behind this article.
The s-300 does not provide any real advantages to iran.
The US and Isreal have already worked out countermeasures many years ago.
Cyprus which bought the system allowed the Isrealis to study it.

The key behind a good air defense system is electronics.

Off the shelf components that are used in TV's, DVD's and Civilian radar and communication systems can be used to upgrade ancient tech like the SA-6 Gainful form the 60's used in the Yom Kippur war by the Egyptians into a deadly weapon.
The BUK is exactly that with minor changes.

The Iranians have done the same with some minimal help from china, and their system of airdefense looks old and useless
but has been upgraded to a digital system and is capable and very cheap , and is made in iran.

This brings us to the seemingly ineffective S-300 system.

all you need is a few hours and it can be upgraded to effective, you need only a change in software most of the time.
Isrealis will need spys to get copies of the upgrade before they can safely attack..
without that they would expect heavy casualties.

The real meaning behind the article is not fany weapons systems but that China and Russia have irans back.

[mahoka]

Yes

Russia will never allow the west to lay a finger on Iran, China although a lot less open about it are doing a great deal behind the scenes

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

Gurey, what's going on with the Chinese economy? It seems to be in reverse. Is it just a minor bump in the road fuelled by artificial mass western hysteria or is it something more long-term?

[gurey25]

Yes

Russia will never allow the west to lay a finger on Iran, China although a lot less open about it are doing a great deal behind the scenes

to be honest you will be surprised that its the opposite.
Although Russia and China are strategic partners.
The beliefs of Putin and xi jinping are different

Putin is more accomodating to the west and is generally pro western while xi jinpin is virulently anti-western but presents a different face..
because the chinese are not comfortable in the media spotlight they prefer putin to take the flak while they covertly support him...

remember the real chinese attitude is allot more extreme than the Russian one, but they present themselves to be harmless and accomodating.


Who remembers the south park episode that was a parody of pokemon?
The japanese emperors behavior is hilariously similiar to how the chinese operate..
massage the ego, lie to their face, even humiliate yourself and bow down nothing is more important than winning to the chinese,

[gurey25]

Gurey, what's going on with the Chinese economy? It seems to be in reverse. Is it just a minor bump in the road fuelled by artificial mass western hysteria or is it something more long-term?

Its the first time the chinese people experienced such a bubble,
the government did the right thing, they told them not to speculate and warned against it, and told them there will be no bailouts.
They actually want the bubble to pop, they are allowing the market to correct itself without interference,

ironic how they are more capitalist than the US
no bailout here my friends and there is nothing too big to fail.

They did the same with the property bubble, do you remember those ghost cities?
yes they exist.
It was due to massive corruption form the regional governments and regional banks,
what did the government do?
nothing, it let them go bust...

today they are slowly getting torn down and rebuilt to a better standard, while the rest are getting filled up by immigrants from the countryside.

No major impact on the Chinese economy...

Even the recent devaluation of the Yuan was intentional and good for the economy.
The truth is that the yuan is loosly pegged to the US dollar and the US dollar was rising in value against many currencies pulling the yuan up with it.
by devaluing they are simply attemtping to remain still and not move up or down.

[GAMES]

The S 300 is a formidable weopon, but not something the US and its allies cant overcome or work around it. Remember, even with this deal, the US ability to strike Iran still remains intact.

And as for the Chinese supplying Iran with fighter jet, LooL they would probably fall off the sky, just like with any other Chinese made crap.

LooL the Russians have been reduced to selling arms to Iran and Syria.

[gurey25]

The S 300 is a formidable weopon, but not something the US and its allies cant overcome or work around it. Remember, even with this deal, the US ability to strike Iran still remains intact.

And as for the Chinese supplying Iran with fighter jet, LooL they would probably fall off the sky, just like with any other Chinese made crap.

LooL the Russians have been reduced to selling arms to Iran and Syria.

The S-300 will not stop the US but it will make them work hard for once,
no more video games where there is no risk at all, they will lose planes and men will die .
The S-300 stops isreali adventures because the isrealis are already at the maximum of their range for an air raid and they need everything to go perfectly. With S-300 it wont so its too risky.
Right now they have a free hand to bomb iran when they feel like it.
The US will have an easier time bombing iran but for once it wont be a turkey shoot..

and Chinese aircraft ?
dude you do not know about the J-10 do you?
It is world class an equal to the Typhoon at least.
and russian tech is one of the best in the world.

recently there was an exercise in UK with the Indian airforce flying Su-30mki
they humiliated the british with their Eurofighters,
they are still pissed off and are screaming unfair

http://theaviationist.com/2015/07/22/in ... yed-to-uk/

12-0

both sides handicapped themselves and did not use their radars to the full range,
You should know that within visual range , one should never fight with a Russian plane especially a thrust vectoring sukhoi.
its like a knife fight in a tight alley with an experienced street fighter..

The Sukhoi carries more missiles that have greater range , and its radar is powerfull
i believe the BBR doctrine of the russians is better, they focus on knocking out AWACS and ECM.
and they believe in carrying allot of missiles.

[GAMES]

The J10 hasn't been combat tested sxb, so no one would know how it would perform in a real war setting. I don't believe anyone else flies it outside of communist China.

If Russian planes and tech was so much better than American, then how come the US and the Yahuudi Airforce were able to decimate Russian built Arab planes?

[Ben Dover]

The continuing devalution in the RMB is no real surprise, a lot of places thought it was overvalued, particularly against the dollar. Maintaining a peg when currencies are stable is all well and good, but maintaining that same peg when you have one major currency strongly appreciating (the dollar, and also sterling) and another falling (the euro) can lead to odd outcomes.

There's been some interesting stuff out there about the real Chinese unemployment rate the last couple of days, official figures saying that it's always stable at about 4%, but some reckon now that it blew out to 11% during 2008 and is up at 10% again now.

This is getting gloomier by the day. Malaysia's ringitt in free fall, Vietnam and China devaluing their currencies, today's news of biggest shrinkage in Chinese manufacturing since 2009, Japan's negative growth, commodities in free fall as well, export-nations such as Germany and Japan quite likely to feel China's woes very soon...

[Rambie]

The J10 hasn't been combat tested sxb, so no one would know how it would perform in a real war setting. I don't believe anyone else flies it outside of communist China.

If Russian planes and tech was so much better than American, then how come the US and the Yahuudi Airforce were able to decimate Russian built Arab planes?

Gamer,

The airplanes didn't even reach the air.
The Jews destroyed the runaway and the planes were literally a sitting target.

[GAMES]

The J10 hasn't been combat tested sxb, so no one would know how it would perform in a real war setting. I don't believe anyone else flies it outside of communist China.

If Russian planes and tech was so much better than American, then how come the US and the Yahuudi Airforce were able to decimate Russian built Arab planes?

Gamer,

The airplanes didn't even reach the air.
The Jews destroyed the runaway and the planes were literally a sitting target.

LoL i know right.

[gurey25]

its well known that simpler versions were exported to third world clients except india.
but thats no excuse for the arabs because the vietnamese had the same and they put up a good fight against the US.

arab incompetence my friend.
thats your answer