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UCID is actually turning into a dark horse, the minute Biixi was declared winner everybody knew Jamal was finished because no party want's to present two Habar Awal presidential candidates, i.e Jamal cannot compete with Biixi since he has gained now elders support, business mens support, general popular support. Faysal Ali Waraabe is going to have Jamal replaced soon,

ramzy2277 wrote:

Faysal should break the old tradition and bring an other isaaq vicepresident candidate preferably Arab. Or he should nominate a harti candidate. The battle of Somaliland presidence is not over yet. very interesting political game !

theyuusuf143 wrote:

ramzy2277 wrote:

Faysal should break the old tradition and bring an other isaaq vicepresident candidate preferably Arab. Or he should nominate a harti candidate. The battle of Somaliland presidence is not over yet. very interesting political game !

I want to see Xirsi as presidential elect with Xaglotoosiye as VP for UCID. To counter the Muse Bixi and Saylici western coalition.

theyuusuf143 wrote:

ramzy2277 wrote:

Faysal should break the old tradition and bring an other isaaq vicepresident candidate preferably Arab. Or he should nominate a harti candidate. The battle of Somaliland presidence is not over yet. very interesting political game !

yusuf I've read your posts a number of times, you are very good analyst, but in this case you are utterly wrong.
the candidacy of jamal rested on the notion that biixi would not prevail in kulmiye, now that he has secured and will run 201X, jamal as a junior habar awal cannot stand against the chief in command of reer samtr who will rally all habar awal to kulmiye once again as he did in 2010.

but..and there is a big but, some people think the maryalool alliance has partially broken with xirsi taking his numerous clansmen and some of the habar awal with him. If he and his allies joins Ucid and xirsi stands as a new HJ presidential candidate for Ucid (!) with the waaabes blessing, this will be the closest race between 3 parties ever-. Basically

HJ + Ciidagale - UCID

HA + HJ - Kulmiye

HY - WAdani

Each one will of course select a Gadabguursi VP because the dhulos are too unpredictable ask Xaqsoor party.
Arap is not big enough for a VP post, it would be disastrous to choose them.

I do agree with you Faysal is not 100% happy with jamal, but he does not have better alternative so far. I heard Faysal was in burao last couple of days to reach agreement with hersi Group. But in my opinion most habarjeclo will vote for muse than hersi. although he can bring more votes for ucid compare to jamaal. As i said the battle for Somaliland presidence is not over yet. Faysal is very intellegent he knows how to play his game. Even muse will do every thing to put hersi out of sight he may give him kulmiye chairmanship.

garad13 wrote:

theyuusuf143 wrote:

ramzy2277 wrote:

Faysal should break the old tradition and bring an other isaaq vicepresident candidate preferably Arab. Or he should nominate a harti candidate. The battle of Somaliland presidence is not over yet. very interesting political game !

I want to see Xirsi as presidential elect with Xaglotoosiye as VP for UCID. To counter the Muse Bixi and Saylici western coalition.

What about if kulmiye give xaglo a guaranteed ticket to the parliament chairmanship through the isxanbaar scheme. i beleive muuse can silence both xaglo and xirsi easily. Muuse has the upper hand of all.

the habar yunis will not accept to lose the parliament chairmanship, dhulbahante is a trainee in the coming elections, just forget it.
they need to proof they show numbers first, then talk later, today xaqlatosiye couldn't even gain a VP because of their political history.
Xaqsoor gambled with them and lost, Biixi was adamant he wanted samaroon VP.

Ucid camp is looking very much a dark horse, xirsi is big threath to kulmiye, it is probable he can rally a significant portion of HJ.
the ciidagale vote exclusively Ucid and they managed to put up 100 000 votes, not enough to give Faisal presidency, but that is a large voting block, question is how powerful is xirsi within HJ, thats what faisal is investigating if he can drop heavy balls, in that case it will be almost, 30, 30, 30 percent.

but..and there is a big but, some people think the maryalool alliance has partially broken with xirsi taking his numerous clansmen and some of the habar awal with him. If he and his allies joins Ucid and xirsi stands as a new HJ presidential candidate for Ucid (!) with the waaabes blessing, this will be the closest race between 3 parties ever-. Basically

HJ + Ciidagale - UCID

HA + HJ - Kulmiye

HY - WAdani

Each one will of course select a Gadabguursi VP because the dhulos are too unpredictable ask Xaqsoor party.
Arap is not big enough for a VP post, it would be disastrous to choose them.

I heard some rumours about Xirsi leading UCID. That woud be laughable to be honest, as UCID or Xirsi wont attract HJ votes. Xirsi lost support of his clan the moment he sided with Maxamed Biixi Yoonis and resigned from his ministerial position. Habar Jeclo will vote for a Sacad Muuse president 100% as HJ ows Muuse Biixi since he brought Sacad Muse to the Kulmiye wagon bag in 2010. A Ciidagale + Habar Jeclo alliance waa habeen xalay tagey. Xirsi isn't a threat to Kulmiye not at all, Habar Jeclo stands behind the president.

Faysal Cali Waraabe should try to secure Arab and Gadabuursi votes to encounter Sacad Muuse influence in western Somaliland.

CaynabaX wrote:

but..and there is a big but, some people think the maryalool alliance has partially broken with xirsi taking his numerous clansmen and some of the habar awal with him. If he and his allies joins Ucid and xirsi stands as a new HJ presidential candidate for Ucid (!) with the waaabes blessing, this will be the closest race between 3 parties ever-. Basically

HJ + Ciidagale - UCID

HA + HJ - Kulmiye

HY - WAdani

Each one will of course select a Gadabguursi VP because the dhulos are too unpredictable ask Xaqsoor party.
Arap is not big enough for a VP post, it would be disastrous to choose them.

I heard some rumours about Xirsi leading UCID. That woud be laughable to be honest, as UCID or Xirsi wont attract HJ votes. Xirsi lost support of his clan the moment he sided with Maxamed Biixi Yoonis and resigned from his ministerial position. Habar Jeclo will vote for a Sacad Muuse president 100% as HJ ows Muuse Biixi since he brought Sacad Muse to the Kulmiye wagon bag in 2010. A Ciidagale + Habar Jeclo alliance waa habeen xalay tagey. Xirsi isn't a threat to Kulmiye not at all, Habar Jeclo stands behind the president.

Faysal Cali Waraabe should try to secure Arab and Gadabuursi votes to encounter Sacad Muuse influence in western Somaliland.

Arap hates cidagale too much to ask them for anything, remember, they swing votes with sacad muuse for free actually,which means they are by default kulmiye supporters next election without gaining anything, also dhulos are too unpredictable, Biixi was smart to choose Saylici, he want's safe ride to presidential elections, I think it's very likely we will see either a habar awal or habar jeclo representing Ucid in 2017, if that happens, then Biixi and kulmiye is in serious trouble since the HY will vote like one massive block behind Wadani, Ucid will be on sterioids too if Faysal pulls something of in Burco.

this won't be a classic HJ + Ciidagale, this will be a freak of accidents alliance which might swell large, since Faysal already was packing single handedly near 20 % national votes,

New Ucid = Ciidagale, HJ, Arap, 30-45 of Sacad Muuse, because of Biixi Yoonis and Samaale, siding with Xirsi futa-gaab.

HJ meel uun bay isku raacdaye, if Xirsi is elected as the leader which I doubted that would even happen, markaa HJ xirsi ayay kolay raaxaysaa, oo waad iska garanaysaa qabyaaladda xun ee wadanka ka jirta, nin baa noo sharraxan iyo sheekadaa ayaa imanaysa.

Bal halkay ku biyo shubato aynu eegno.

Faysal can not replace jamaal if jamal is not willing to resign. Even if they go to the court jamaal will win.

Somaliland politics getting more and more unpredictable these days

theyuusuf143 wrote:Faysal can not replace jamaal if jamal is not willing to resign. Even if they go to the court jamaal will win.

whether Jamal or Xirsi stands presidential candidate for Ucid, this is bad news for Biixi and kulmiye, because that will drain potential secure kulmiye votes to Ucid. Already VP of Ucid has "resigned".... Faysal is working unto a new coalition.

politic out of khat nification..
i spoke to Abdirashid before he went to hargeisa and asked him how can you work with crazy unstable faysal?
He told me Jamal and himself did sign a contract between them and faysal and he should not breach the contract

Somali iyoo contract ????? when did somali honor contract ????

He went back and booom faysal smack his hangol in the middle of already a crazy party ...

loooooooooooooooooool
I will ask Abdirashid what happen when he comes back to England