Shariif Sakiin is not a politician and I can guarantee you that this is his biggest political miscalculation. If he thinks that he can revenge his grievances on Jubbaland by denying the rights of the good people of Bakool Sare, he now has his hands full in political mess. Here are few things to remember:
1. The biggest ally of Shariif Sakiin is not Muqdisho but rather Addis. The Ethiopian consider SW state very crucial in keeping eye on Muqdhiso politics. That is the reason they chose Baydhabo as their biggest AMISOM headquarters.
2. What Shariif doesn't understand is that the Cawlyahan in Bakool Sare - Ceel Barde, Yeed, Aato - are closely connected to their next of kin in Afdheer in Ogadenia. For those who don't know much about OG politics, the Cawlyahan are the least involved OG clan in ONLF, therefore have great infulence in Ethiopia and DDSI. Ethiopia would not want to mess with that loyalty because the Afdheer region is one of the most important regions in Ogadenia,
3. Bakool Sare has the constitution on its side. All three districts existed prior to the civil war. The last district to get full district recognition was Aato and ironically the Minister of Internal Affairs who signed the degree was Abdiqaadim Salaad Hassan in late 1970s.
4. Shariif Sakiin would look weak in this fiasco and trust me, he would be called in Addis in the next few weeks
All three districts are majority Cawlyahan and instead of getting 15 MPs in the SW Parliament, they only got 4. That is focking joke. 90% of the Ethiopian troops in Bakool are Liyuu Police from Afdheer region of DDSI and are the ones who liberated Bakool. So I am confused, what are Sakiin's political leverages in messing up with Cawlyahan???
this wont be a successful state...another ximin iyo xeeb or ahlusanna state
