Making Sense of The Greatest Political Turmoil That's Brewing

[smooth]

HSM coalition (Konfur galbeed, Galmudug Jubaland, Benadir, Hiiraan/Shabelle)

Primary Goal (Re-election of HSM)

Strategy employed
District based MP selection based on 4.5 these will be elected by Gulled, Madoobe, Sakiin and the others yet to be formed(this will ensure none of the current parliament members will return particularly Jawaari) this will ensure HSM is re-elected 100%

Greatest threat
Strong viable rumour that the monitoring group will produce a report close to the election implicating much of this government in corruption and how much funds they have embezzled each, but the main threat comes from Jawaari camp

Jawaari Parliament block & coalition (bakool sare, jubba ganane state, khaatumo, maakahir, Ahlu sunnah)

Primary goal: No district based MP selection & Parliament extension for his corrupt MP's so they can overthrow HSM with motion

Strategy employed
Create as much division as possible and more mini states, so they can convince the world that it’s not viable to have district based MP representation because of so many differences everywhere, they are behind Bakool Sare & the newest jubba ganane creations.

Ahlu Sunnah won’t agree with Galmudug on MP’s selection, Khaatumo won’t agree with Puntland, Bakool sare won’t agree with Konfur galbeed and the newest ganane state won’t agree with MP’s Jubaland will bring, exactly what THEY want, hence UN will have no choice but to Bowe to their demands, give them the extension they want, throwaway district based MP selection which will give them a chance to dispose HSM in a motion as their term is shortly coming to an end

Greatest Threat
HSM coalition that want district based MP representation, this will render all of them irrelevant in the political landscape


Puntland (become irrelevant reduced to causing strive)

Primary goal: Full district based representation no 4.5, become president

No coherent strategy and won’t work, Faroole humiliated in bosaaso when he raised this, HSM replied you couldn’t do it in Puntland were 1 tribe lives for 16 years, why propose for the rest of the country what you couldn't do in your own back yard.
Use Harti abgaal like Gheedi/Baadiyo/Salaad ali Jelle & hope to revive Harti/Harti Relationship.


All this has raised tension everywhere, with Jawaari/Puntland being the main culprits

- Ahlu Sunnah have today amassed a large number of troops on its border not far from cadaado because of Jawaari’s visit
- Bakool sare is massing troops with help from Liyuu police against Konfur Galbeed
- Skirmishes in Puntland with Taliyah killed in Qardho by Militia men recently increasing tensions, standoff in Bosaaso regarding who will take what revenue from the airport.
- Khaatumo declaring Faysal Cali Waraabe is a dofaar after visit, feuding with both Somaliland/Puntland minor hit&run skirmishes continue
- HSM naivety accepting a proposed peace deal brought to him by Harti donkeys Geedi & Jeele nearly sparked 90’s civil war in Xamar, they wanted to rob what others owned, that’s why you saw government troops shooting at each other recently as one group tried to enforce bililiqo but failed, HSM did a U turn


The biggest threat with all this constant bickering is that we are going to be returned to “transitional status” or worse a potential all out warfare between the states, rumours are the Ethiopian arms dealers selling a massive amount of weaponry to Kismaayo & Ahlu Sunnah groups, Ahmed Madoobe alliance with Puntland strained because full district based election will hurt O.G most, he also found out Puntland wanted to sabotage Kismaayo conference using this airport fiasco to bring everyone together then say "we are all here now, lets do kismaayo conference here" Guled exposed it.

This is what happens when your a poor country fighting for bread crumbs and everyone is a self proclaimed professor with over 100 qabiil's, we really are a cursed people, Somali politics is the most bemusing things it changes everyday, those that were friends are tomorrow's bitter enemies.

[FarhanYare]

Ahlusunnah yey matalaaan taloow . Ahlusunnah would've gained my support if only they mobilized their men to fight liyuu when they were indiscriminately killing farmers. Yaa nooga saara our capital bal qashinka

[smooth]

Ahlusunnah yey matalaaan taloow . Ahlusunnah would've gained my support if only they mobilized their men to fight liyuu when they were indiscriminately killing farmers. Yaa nooga saara our capital bal qashinka

Why would they? they are armed and funded by the Ethiopians, they are a coalition of misfits its not just ceyr, the root of all evil here is a lack of $$ in the country, they are funded by the iranian's too, if you don't have any money to feed your 10 or so kids and someone gives it to you for free, your going to do everything in your power to make sure that source of funding never cuts, Shakiir was giving out a lot of money to civilians to buy support were do you think he got it from? They wouldn't survive a single day without Ethiopian/Iranian backing

[FarhanYare]

Ayr ma matalaan. Galmudug bey raceen. Nimankaan galmudug ku biira baa la dahay. Ahlusunnah is different case (they don't have support from the people they claim they made maamul for. Therefore, it won't last) whereas other maamuls such as the latest jubaland janane or something to that effect have the backing of it's shacab. Same with bakool sare.

[FarhanYare]

Jubba ganane*

[Django]

Kulaha district based selection would hurt Ogaden.This iljex are funny as hell.

[cheifaqilbari]

Smooth, you southerners darood and hawiye like to make every thing so complex but what has been your downfall from my view is , that first you have not forgiving each other you since the civil war, you re all enemies to ecahother constantly for more than 25 years and still going on..secondly the qabiil states yiu formng Will institutionalize qabilsm war dead and famine and already you fighting, this will only make you african colony and with a political class of xassan, gaas, madoobe and a man named sakiin it all goes down to factionsm and dagaal. Sahal always talks about yiur succes but the only thing I can see is ethiopian troops and together wth burundi,uganda,Djibouti and other African troops protection from you one another while like a medieval armies raping killing and profiteering their way through the country. Then you have a rural uprising from shabab which is a reaction to constant bombing of the civilian population. Also the international recognition of the government has sofar resulted in 5 embassy returning to moqadisho green district. All in all xassan sheikh maxamoud 4 years have been 1 step fowd 5 backwrd ther is zero leadership. The man is weak and have no experience so had to learn in the job . Xassn Sheikh ad his southern political class are in government to make money , on the back of the poor civilians and thats where the rampant and illogical nationalism wth no substance comes in .

[SahanGalbeed]

Yeah , one man's bleak perspective . I would sure like to have a different opinion in all stated above , unfortunately it is beyond the real of my knowledge { Local tribes and dynamics} . I am sure it is nearly as bad as it seems here. Reer koonfureed ka , waxa ka maqan "hope" . Wixii xun uun ba u muuqda , good thigs -ka ma arkaan , meeshi opportunity of cooperation /compromise ma arkaan , it's sad . You cannot build a country like that

[smooth]

Yeah , one man's bleak perspective . I would sure like to have a different opinion in all stated above , unfortunately it is beyond the real of my knowledge

That's not an opinion its actually what's taking place, I have relatives in the government, its common knowledge on the streets in Xamar & in the circles of those that know, the Jawari Vs HSM is turning very ugly, everyone is involved, I support HSM on this, I want those corrupt filthy MP's out of parliament so every maamul gets to bring their MP's from districts they represent, this will reduce corruption & qabyaalad enormously as instead of a qabiil focus, things will shift to a focus on degmo's instead.

Smooth, you southerners darood and hawiye like to make every thing so complex but what has been your downfall from my view is , that first you have not forgiving each other you since the civil war, you re all enemies to ecahother constantly for more than 25 years and still going on..

The matters are far more complex then that sxb, we have 80 or so qabiils vying for their own interests and power, you only have 1/3 of Dhulloz, Pacifist Gaderbise and just Isaaq as the main players, also you don't really have the agricultural farmlands as in the south, so there is not much to quarrel over, praise Allah for those blessings, with you guys high volatility and emotions you would have exploded and self-destruct.

Kulaha district based selection would hurt Ogaden.This iljex are funny as hell.

Please do name me the degmo's you have in Somalia were you are a majority, you only live in Afmadow in Jubaland and a tuulo or two, Ahmed madoobe knows this, that's why he wants district based on 4.5 and is against Puntland district only, you won't even have 10 MP's if Madoobe sided with Puntland

[Django]

Smooth only my subclan from MZ leave in Afmadow.
From Lower Jubba.
Afmadow MZ
Badhaadhe Cabdale Makahiil
Xagar Bartire
Kismaayo we are the largest.

Middle Jubba
Buale Cawliyahan
Sakow Cawliyahan
Jilib is half Ogaden

Bakool
Celberde Cawliyahan
Ato Cawliyahan
Yeed Cawliyahan

Tell me where Iljex reside in Somalia?
Galmugdi is shared.

[smooth]

If you really believe in that list that you posted, I am not even going to debate with you, no wonder you were always called "donqi cagdheere", the good thing is that Ahmed madoobe unlike you doesn't fit that stereotype, that's why he rejected "full district based MP" selection Puntland was advocating.

[Django]

Wat does an iljex whose history started in 91 know about ogaden or Somalia.

Before Aideed you guys used to walk barefeeted and shirtless fighting warthorgs over mushrooms being burnt by the scorching sun. So when did you folks become experts in Anthropology? For your info we arent even neighbours in Juboyinka you came as mooriyaans under Aqassims JVA and left.

[abashir527]

Lmfaooooo half of Jilib is OG yaab... them kdf kno how to brain wash these ppl...

Most of middle juba is owned by D&M and bantu.. around jilib area is mostly biyomaal and sheekhaal and other hawiye clan... there are more gaaljecal in bakool than there are og....

[Strategic]

Buale is Majority BANTU,Sheekhaal ,d&m and other hawiye clans with few traces of CAwliyahan ,jilib is majority sheekhaal,gaaljecel,d&m,bantu,xagar is shared.you guys need to wake up.

[Django]

Buale is Majority BANTU,Sheekhaal ,d&m and other hawiye clans with few traces of CAwliyahan ,jilib is majority sheekhaal,gaaljecel,d&m,bantu,xagar is shared.you guys need to wake up.

Lol keep with your desperation.

Just cos jowhar and Xamar being majority Jareer doesnt mean they are majority everywhere.
Fact is middle Shabelle is majority bantu at least give them their rights in middle shabelle before seeking for more of their rights.

Shekhal only reside in some parts of hosungow and some parts of jilib thats it.
Galjecel have no degan apart from few charcoal collection points near Kismaayo.

As for raxaweyn if the historically never been majority in Middle Jubba what makes you think they can know? Xassan Sh? There is a raxaweyn in Xamar and PL but does that make them majority.