Ethiopian experts please come in

[hangool79]

Hello

Like many forumers I've observerd what is going in Ethiopia right now, however I would like to see an analysis of the current situation who is allied, and who is fighting who etc, what will it mean for somalis in general. Please throw in a scenario analysis as well concerning most likely outcome. Awrastaale you are most welcome to sheer your thoughts!

[AwRastaale]

The current unrest involves mainly the Oromo, Amhara, Agews and the Tigrai-led government/businessmen.

Even though the Amhara, Tigrais and Oromo all have resentment towards each other and each accuses the other of atrocities, historical betrayal and conquest---today the main issue centers mainly around ethnic territorial dispute and economic and political marginalisation.

The Oromo face the Tigrai convert project that was cleverly masked under the so called master plan where they insist Addis is expanding so they evict Oromo farmers only to move in Chinese bulldozers then Tigrai businessmen once apartment, hotel, mansion, mall are completed.

That ignited the ongoing protest and it is only gaining more momentum by the week.

There are so many other issues within Oromo but for now they agree that Oromo farms/land must be saved.

Tigray already looted the Raya-Azebo woredas from the Rayyaa Oromo of Wollo.

The Amhara situation is not that different than the Oromo because they too face Tigray expansion.


In red: Welkait-Tegede.

The main issue is around the woreda called Welkait, which is dominated by Qemant Agews and Amhara.

The Tigrais have been slowly moving in Tigrais in the region while many often came previously as beggars or workers.

It is sort of like how Siad Barre populated the Jubba regions with Daroods.

Welkait is agricultural land and as you know Tigray is barren land.

Welkait is high seaame seed producer and exports every year in the millions along with its neighboring Humera region.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g95rqX-OseQ

So that's why it's such an important region for Amhara.

Amhara say it's Amhara while Tigrais claim it. The Welkait Committee sort of like "beesha deganka" say they are Amhara.

But it was long part of Gonder region.

If Amhara respect Oromo wishes the two could return to Menelik palace. So far there is a vacuum and Amhara and Oromo need to start forming a transitional government at least start making plans even if that means running trials before the real task comes. At least some talks and planned committee is needed otherwise the country could fall apart.

West is not against replacing TPLF it is just there is no organized and well thought out plan by Ethiopian groups---a consensus solution that is.

[Khalid Ali]

Hello

Like many forumers I've observerd what is going in Ethiopia right now, however I would like to see an analysis of the current situation who is allied, and who is fighting who etc, what will it mean for somalis in general. Please throw in a scenario analysis as well concerning most likely outcome. Awrastaale you are most welcome to sheer your thoughts!

Oromo and Amhara are both marginalized by the tigre TPLF but there is a difference TPLF views Amhara as a major threat to their rule. Because Amhara have a long history of civilization in Ethiopia a chain of Emperors Amhara have the numbers but Amhara opposition were for years very inactive incompetent because the EPRDF has combined all the ethnic groups against them. What is likely to Happen now is that the Amhara opposition Ginbot7 the EPPF the Gonder Up rise even Amharas with in the TPLF ANDM will some how defect what we saw already was the Local Amhara Police in Amhara region didn't Join the Federal police/ army in cracking down the Up rise. Ethio Media and Essat or on the Media Front. What Awr rastaale said is correct Tigre stole allot of Land from Amhara and even leased allot of land to Sudan in order to break Amhara strength in Ethiopia, mostly Farm land.. Tigres are very evil leaders and politicians also very smart in their dealings.

Also Amhara have reached out to Oromo and Many oromos see now that working with Amhara is their way to free dom the 2 might not agree on Oromo secession but not al Oromo prefer secession perhaps they could agree more autonomy for Oromo and more share of the pie and Oromo Language being a co national language of Ethiopia. The Oromo Amhara relations have been complex with allot of rivalry and missrunderstanding and discrimination many Oromo felt during the hey days of the great Empires of Ethiopia how ever this is of the past a new chapter began for the 2 a common enemy for two long the TPLF played Oromo against Amhara playing with their emotions Oromo will work with Amhara to build an all inclusive government and i am hearing the state department was asked by several amhara diaspora groups to set up a platform. In the worse case scnario is if Amhara become Arrogant and try to bypass Oromo as they used to do but i dont think they will do that they will make allot of concession for Oromo to keep Ethiopia united and strong.

As for the Somalis the Somalis are divided this is the biggest issues and the biggest problem for us we have no leader in Ethiopia no common policy we could have get an independent region or some kind of autonomy or even a share of the pie but we are working against each other. If we had a leader or some sort of understanding between us even with in the darood Ogadens ONLF and Ileey are not on the same boat Isaaq in Ethiopia and darood in Ethiopia have no understanding it is like we are pre occupied with our selves and Somalia the puppet government in Mogadishu is busy with re election and Somaliland is busy with Dubai port and berbera port and has no regional policies for its people particularly for the Isaaqs in the Hawd at this particular time , so i dont see our situation changing there.

[luis1]

Somalis has always been divided in Ethiopia. ONLF current weakness is the best example that somalis have never trusted each others.

[gobdoon]

How Siad Bare populated Juba with Darood get your f-king facts right and stop commenting things you know nothing about that probably shows how ignorant you are about Ethiopia stop chewing that shit.

[xiimaaya]

Ethiopia hadii ay burburto Somaliland ya walalo uu noqonya? Somebody on YouTube asked that question which made me chuckle

[AwRastaale]

Very well said Professor Gacanyare (Khalid).

The Oromo need to put their differences and differences in ideological views aside. The common goal should be like the pact between EPLF and TPLF almost half a century ago.

All Oromo need to focus and aim for Menelik Palace. From there they should decide, which Oromo secede and which Oromo rules Ethiopia whether as the former Abyssinia quarter (what I call the Lesotho of Ethiopia) or the whole Ethiopia.

Oromo need to march like big boys and blow the horn in Menelik Palace.

This likely scenario may temporarily rekindle Tigrai-Amhara so called "Habesha" unity but Oromo with guns and foot in Menelik palace can single handily handle both of them.

They just need self believe and put the warriors of Arsi, Wollo (Iyeju) and the Jimma house at the forefront and see beyond the historical resentments. This is especially important between the Iyeju and the Arsi.

Arsi are great warriors and one hell of fighters.



Amhara should be invited as an assistance secretary and if Amhara want to maintain their arrogant views that Ethiopia belongs to Amhara alone, they should not fear to slap them into reality. It is necessary even the Tigrais did it.

The biggest fear for Amhara especially those in Shoa is Oromo coming to power. They are so worried about the future of Addis Ababa. They are afraid an independent Oromo will take Addis with them and rightfully so Oromo already fully encircle Addis Ababa.

Shoa Amhara will not protest TPLF any time soon and Tigrais know this too. They know they hate TPLF but they fear Oromo much much greater.

They will be fleeing if Oromo storms Menelik Palace.

For now Oromo need to suppress the secession idea and keep their eyes on Menelik Palace. That is the holy grail. Once you have the keys to heaven, you can make any dream come true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... CVSVuuefNk
Arsi Oromo on the move

The Somali position should be behind Oromo and we need to dismiss and disassociate with Abdi Iley and his Liyu Police who are partaking in the repression and oppression of Oromo as I type.

You are nothing in Ethiopia without Oromo.

For now Oromia and other rebels across Ethiopia offer great opportunity for Somali arms dealers. We need to cash in quick and invest in them same way you invest in stocks.


The Ras

[MayDay777]

Khalid the Isaaq are irrelevant and a tiny minority. The Dir, Hawiye and Darood should unite in that region against the Oromos and Amhara.

[Khalid Ali]

what dir and hawiye u talk about hawdian please show this guy the numbers of the isaaq woredas and we wil see who is irrelevant if isaaq is so irrelevant who led the first party in Ethiopia since 1991. how come isaaq had 2 presidents of kilinka shamaad eid farax and abduljamid the ogaden cry about he sidelined us this and that. dadkan iyo xaqirada this is the main reason why the somalis in ethiopia will never amount to anything exactly the mentality idòorophobia bu qaba. and the reason is very simple somalier the only people his people fought were idoors hence why he would say hawiye iyo dir ba meel dagan lol. ii bashaal saaxib.

[guhad122]

Khalid the Isaaq are irrelevant and a tiny minority. The Dir, Hawiye and Darood should unite in that region against the Oromos and Amhara.

My cousin Cabdalle, how you been? Horta where is my brother from another mother Mr. Patriot? I hope he is doing well! I haven't had much time to post anything on the forum lately but for your information, here is Cabdalle guy telling the minority iidoors in Gaashaamo to behave:


As for the Muwalad Beenaale, can you believe an Ethiopian from Mereja forum network had to register on Somalinet to exclusively send me a private email. This is a guy from Gondar and I am not making this stuff up, he told me the dude Hawdian is either bipolar and mentally retarded. Last time I told him that I would leave him alone was when I posted people in Hargaisa districts dying from hunger and eating rats, and he claimed that they are Ogaaden. Fock that, Ogaden in Hargaisa that is not from DDSI admin is a cash in the making.

[AwRastaale]

Guhad,

The low IQ Cagdheer that couldn't even tell the difference between Amhara music video and Sulfa's audio clip should be the last person to speak.

I have karbaashed your azz enough just like my forefathers who robbed Hawd from your slave people who wiped their own mothers just to get on their laps.

I love your stories.

I don't expect someone from Jubba regions to know anything thus invent stories.

I too get emails from Ban-ki Moon.

You mad coz Cagdheer lacks the intelligence needed to comprehend the complex Ethiopian politics.

Focus on killing your mothers for TPLF and collect the dhaanto rewards.

[MayDay777]

Khalid the Isaaq are irrelevant and a tiny minority. The Dir, Hawiye and Darood should unite in that region against the Oromos and Amhara.

My cousin Cabdalle, how you been? Horta where is my brother from another mother Mr. Patriot? I hope he is doing well! I haven't had much time to post anything on the forum lately but for your information, here is Cabdalle guy telling the minority iidoors in Gaashaamo to behave:


As for the Muwalad Beenaale, can you believe an Ethiopian from Mereja forum network had to register on Somalinet to exclusively send me a private email. This is a guy from Gondar and I am not making this stuff up, he told me the dude Hawdian is either bipolar and mentally retarded. Last time I told him that I would leave him alone was when I posted people in Hargaisa districts dying from hunger and eating rats, and he claimed that they are Ogaaden. Fock that, Ogaden in Hargaisa that is not from DDSI admin is a cash in the making.

I'm doing good Ugaas Guhaad

I don't take the Amxaar seriously I think the nikka tries too hard

Have you noticed how quite he was the past too months?

[guhad122]

The fact that this shemale resorts to a slip on me posting a video of Sulfa-voice over by Sulfa shows you how clueless bipolar shemale is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG9UMtr ... tr6r1Y#t=7
He mentioned how Siyaad Barre handed Jubaland to Daarood, when in fact it was Daarood on Daarood spree of killing that the British colonies wanted to stop in Jubaland 300 years ago. At that time, his folks were the true lackeys of the British empire.
http://muse.jhu.edu/article/23692/pdf

[Raganimo]

This Rastaale nigga is in love with anything Ethiopian.

[MayDay777]

fock I didn't read his nonsense until now Siad Barre settled us in Jubbaland kulaha

I guess he doesn't know about the Ogaden conquest of Jubbaland and NFD in the 19th century

he is better at Xabashi history than the Somali one