CNN: will it be Africa's 55th country?

[ramzy2277]

(CNN)Somaliland President Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo recently claimed that more than one million citizens, out of the country's population of 3.4 million, had signed a petition calling for the international community to recognise Somaliland.
Since 1991, and the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in Somalia, the region has declared itself independent. But should it? The examples of the secession of South Sudan and Eritrea raise serious questions and doubts about the outcomes of breakaway states.

The general approach to calls for secession in Africa, as set out by the African Union (AU) and its predecessor the Organisation of African Unity, is that they should be opposed. The most frequently heard argument against secession is that granting the right to one country invites others to take the same step.

This, the argument goes, would put at risk the internationally recognised system of post-colonial states in Africa.
The issue of secession first arose in the 1960s with the wave of decolonisation and questions over the viability of the newly independent states across the continent. Two cases stood out: the Congo, where Katanga's self-proclaimed breakaway was defeated by United Nations forces; and Nigeria, where the Biafran secession was ended by the Nigerian federal forces.

Africa's new states

The issue has come up again in recent times. In northeast Africa two states have experienced separation. In 1993 Eritrea was recognised as a separate state from Ethiopia, and the world's newest state, South Sudan, was recognised in 2011.
The circumstances in each of these cases was different. But the purpose here is not to revisit how and why these took place, but to consider what happened next.

In both cases separation was intended to deal with historical problems and provide an acceptable alternative in the form of a new internationally recognised state. But have they achieved these objectives?
Both the Ethiopian and Sudanese examples suggest that separation isn't always the straightforward option. The division has led to violent border disputes, economic complications, and poor relations with the wider international community.
There is also a case to be made that granting secession has merely served to fuel the claims of other separatist movements. Somaliland's calls to be recognised as independent, rather than being included in the efforts to rebuild Somalia, is an example. When South Sudan became independent in 2011 a Somaliland delegation arrived in Juba, the capital, wearing t-shirts saying "Somaliland Next".

Border disputes, military costs

Any separation involves the recognition of an accepted border between the two states involved. In the case of both Eritrea and South Sudan this has proved contentious.
In 1988 there was an issue over Badme, a small town near the Ethiopian border which Eritrea claimed was theirs. This ignited one of the two largest interstate conflicts in Africa since the second world war. The other interstate conflict was Somalia's attack in 1977 to back up its claim to Ethiopia's Ogaden region, an area mainly populated by clans of Somali origin.
South Sudan's border with Sudan also proved contentious, and there were clashes over the disputed area of Abyei.
Neither the Badme or Abyei issues have been resolved to the satisfaction of the two states involved. Instead they continue to fester.
The continuing border disputes have resulted in both sides continuing to invest heavily in their armies and in equipment. Eritrea and Ethiopia both maintain large and costly forces facing each other across their disputed border.
And while South Sudan and Sudan agreed to an integrated joint force on their common border, it never came into existence. Mutual suspicion and accusations of incursions by both armies persist.

Economic complications

Separation always involves questions about economic relations.
Eritrea's independence made Ethiopia a landlocked country. Prior to Eritrea's independence Ethiopia had access to the sea ports of Massawa and Assab. After separation, Ethiopia expected access to continue, but major differences soon emerged to scupper this. This included the relative value of the two countries' currencies and tariffs charged by Eritrea on the movement of goods.
Worsening economic relations are thought to have played a significant part in the border war that broke out between the two countries.
Similarly, South Sudan and Sudan had to share an outlet to the sea. This became problematic. Sudan began extracting oil in the late 1990s with the bulk of the oil originating in the south. It exported oil via pipelines to the Red Sea that ran through the north.
The peace agreement, which saw the establishment of the South Sudan government in 2005, involved arrangements to share the oil revenues. But South Sudan's decision to separate completely in 2011 soon gave rise to complaints that Sudan was not honouring the agreement. It even led at one point to the pipeline to the north being closed.

Separation legacy

With differences over borders and economic relations, and even overt war, it is unsurprising that diplomatic relations between the governments have proved difficult. It is therefore also unsurprising that they have affected relations with the wider international community.
Separation often implies that the former state wasn't viable. International recognition of a new state therefore assumes that separation is better for both old and new. This has proved questionable in both cases.
Eritrea has acquired a reputation as a coercive state and become something of an international pariah. South Sudan has imploded into impoverishment and widespread conflict, leading some to call for it to become a UN mandate, with the presence of a long-term UN force.
These cases have left a legacy which suggests that separation, in Africa at least, is not an easy option. It could lead to outcomes that do little to solve the problems of any of the states involved.
Many in Africa will have these outcomes in mind as they face Somaliland's continued call for international recognition as an independent state. Meanwhile, rebuilding in the rest of Somalia continues with the express wish that Somaliland is part of the process.

Copyright 2016 The Conversation. Some rights reserved.

Source:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/15/afric ... index.html

[SuldaanMaplesyrup]

This article is so biased against SL, showing the negative outcomes that occurred with South Sudan and Eritrea to explain why Somaliland shouldn't separate and take part in the "rebuilding of Somalia"

The pics are really nice though

[JSLHistorian]

*Yawns* . Recognition will not solve much as long as corruption is epidemic in Somaliland.

[ramzy2277]

This article is so biased against SL, showing the negative outcomes that occurred with South Sudan and Eritrea to explain why Somaliland shouldn't separate and take part in the "rebuilding of Somalia"

The pics are really nice though

I know sxb,its a worthless article. Comparing Somaliland with other newly formed countries is stupid to say the least. Every country, history and current situation of a country is different. They should take a better look at Somaliland and write the article.

But the point is, we should see and experience how the international observers monitor and assess us, so we know where we standing at,or how far we reached in regards of gaining recognition, the articles from our local media of ''way dhaqaqdaye ,way duushaya,iyo waa muqadaas'' is only for local consumption .

Articles like these should produce a challenging counter arguments from our media and political activists.

[Musa26]

i genuinely believe that recognition will only be given to us ONLY by ourself's we must become strong enough to dictate whats fairly ours, do not expect any country on earth to recognise us instead let us expect to one day rival the economic might of those we wish to be amongs on the international stage.

we arent there yet but one day we will be, in the mean time corruption should be public enemy number one for us. we should also build state institutions that will last centuries because we do not want somaliland to become a personality cult that depends on individuals that are not going to live for ever, also tribalism with in beesha dhexe (isaaq) must be stamped out, we should focus outwards and never look inwards at each other

state building 101 musa style

[whitehartlane]

This article is so biased against SL, showing the negative outcomes that occurred with South Sudan and Eritrea to explain why Somaliland shouldn't separate and take part in the "rebuilding of Somalia"

The pics are really nice though

I know sxb,its a worthless article. Comparing Somaliland with other newly formed countries is stupid to say the least. Every country, history and current situation of a country is different. They should take a better look at Somaliland and write the article.

But the point is, we should see and experience how the international observers monitor and assess us, so we know where we standing at,or how far we reached in regards of gaining recognition, the articles from our local media of ''way dhaqaqdaye ,way duushaya,iyo waa muqadaas'' is only for local consumption .

Articles like these should produce a challenging counter arguments from our media and political activists.

I would infact agree on several key points with the author.
Continuing wars over border disputes that can have a great impact on newly formed states.
1) a border dispute regardless of how big that border is.
In somaliland and somalia's case we are talking about some serious square km.

2) potential arms race and arms build up between the new nation and the former nation.

3)potential economical resources in the disputed areas, in this case oil.

4)history and heritage in regards to the disputed area. Its a darood a major tribe that mainly resides in the former nation that also populate the disputed region claimed by somaliland.

5)state taxes subsidised for border control on both sides which will affect the government purse that in ideal conflict free region would otherwise be spend on much more needier sectors of the said countries.

6) disputes between countries lead to problems in international relations, as bordering nations and even wider regional countries will side with one or the other on international cooperations.

7) lack of basic infrastucture in the newly formed country will setup that new born nation to fall hard as the author has given several key factors in the most newly created nations from the same region as somaliland.

What have eritrea and south sudan gained from the seperation? Considering the prolonged historical conflicts maybe just nothing more than some level of false nationalism. Nothing else...


From an international perspective is it worth it to create a new country that has serious border issues, zero income generating infrastructure or any other infrastructure...

??

[Ben Dover]

Interesting that all of your 7 points revolve around a single issue, i.e. border dispute. It must really bother you.

Very soon we will have no border issues, thus all of your points are rendered moot.

[Musa26]

Interesting that all of your 7 points revolve around a single issue, i.e. border dispute. It must really bother you.

Very soon we will have no border issues, thus all of your points are rendered moot.

our mj friend whitehartlane is open to an amicable divorce between somaliland and somalia

i wonder if he would feel the same way if somaliland was not so insistent on respecting its border with somalia we both know he's puntland would be the first to feel the heat. the idoor is indeed light years ahead of other somalis when it comes to politics

[Ben Dover]

our mj friend whitehartlane is open to an amicable divorce between somaliland and somalia

i wonder if he would feel the same way if somaliland was not so insistent on respecting its border with somalia we both know he's puntland would be the first to feel the heat. the idoor is indeed light years ahead of other somalis when it comes to politics

Wait for the meltdown when SL finalises the talks later this year

[Lancer]

This guy's articles has been plastered all over news websites..the SL government needs to work on lobbying with PR firms and refuting these kinds of things, we can't let this idiot and his weak argument control our narrative.

[JSL3000]

What a useless article.