Parallels between '91 Somalia and 2016 Ethiopia

[Talo alle udaa]

During the beginning stages of the unraveling of the Somali state there were a number of active rebel movements against the regime of Siyad Barre. The rebel groups who were initially active largely resided in the north consisting largely of the Isaaq and the Majerteen clans.

However their opposition to the central government of Mogadishu had little impact in their beginning stages. Precisely because they were far away from central seat of power of the country which was Mogadishu at that time.

The final blow to the Somali government that had been in power for 20 years was the rise of the Hawiye who largely surrounded the capitol and seat of power. When they rose against the government and begin to raise arms in the surrounding villages and towns the country and specifically the capitol became ungovernable and finally control of power fell to tribal armed forces.

The Hawiye much like the Oromo felt they had no stake in power nor say within the government even though majority of the countries factories and investments was within regions they largely inhabited. It was this impression of lack of ownership and a sense of representation that led many government owned institutions to be ransacked and destroyed.

Within the last few weeks over 11 factories have been burned in the Oromiya region, majority of whom were foreign owned. What happens to Addis Ababa going forward will largely be determined by the Oromo.

[Khalid Ali]

Oromo cannot be like Hawiye , first of all Hawiye are fierce and they take things into their own hands Oromo on the other hand waits and waits and waits Hawie is more destructive was more destructive Oromo is not into Anarchy.. Hawiye had an organization USC though it was weak oromo have no organization we have jawar screaming from America and the Oromo population protesting. Amhara will surpise all of you soon.

[GalliumerianSlayer]

How can you compare neutered Oromos to the mighty HAG?

[Talo alle udaa]

Oromo cannot be like Hawiye , first of all Hawiye are fierce and they take things into their own hands Oromo on the other hand waits and waits and waits Hawie is more destructive was more destructive Oromo is not into Anarchy.. Hawiye had an organization USC though it was weak oromo have no organization we have jawar screaming from America and the Oromo population protesting. Amhara will surpise all of you soon.

The Oromo fit the Hawiye like a glove box back in '91. Your obsession with Axmara and wish for a "centralized" does not make it so. The Axmara are like the Majerteen who are at good at pushing other people's buttons to support them. However, they by their location do not live at the site of power and as such will play second fiddle to the Oromo in any future arrangement the two share.

[theyuusuf143]

I agree the geographical similarities between Oromia and hawiye. Both groups control The capitals.

[Strategic]

the biggest mistake of the hawiye was the failure to fill the vacuum left by the regime and ensuing crisis/disaster of mooryan calture spreading all over,getting it out of hand.oromo have the money,population,location,language and every other ingradient to rule.this is their once life time chance to push for federalism and get in the throne,no domination from the amhara.oromo already started sacrificing blood for their cause and they only through the barrel of gun they can get their rights.i am with them in every step of the way.

[Khalid Ali]

Ethiopia can thrive only with amhara leadership its funny how u down play amhara role in these protests there are at least 4 anti tplf organisation in foreing countrys entc in the United states ginbot 7 and eppf in asmara. and there are zero oromo organisation. Ethiopia will be led by amhara believe me on this. oromo stand no chance

[Talo alle udaa]

Ethiopia can thrive only with amhara leadership its funny how u down play amhara role in these protests there are at least 4 anti tplf organisation in foreing countrys entc in the United states ginbot 7 and eppf in asmara. and there are zero oromo organisation. Ethiopia will be led by amhara believe me on this. oromo stand no chance

Ethiopia has been led by TPLF the last 20 years without Axmara. The Tigray are the biggest obstacle facing a return of Axmara domination in Ethiopian politics. Then you have the tyranny of numbers that is the Oromo who surround the seat of power. You may wish to believe a centralized Xabashi led Ethiopia will favor Somaliland (without really expanding on why they would) that in no way makes it more likely.

[MarsinQorahay]

Talo, you think the west got its eyes on the ogaden region? After all we all know that the west is behind it couse of the chinese presence there.

Do you think the west will try to take a hold of the ogaden region couse of the oil and gass and start to favor JWXO?

[Khalid Ali]

talo tplf is there because amhara refused to fight as amhara. amhara will.not be dragged into ethnic politics tplf days are numbers meles their leader is dead sebhat doesnt know what to do. tigre are leader less bal weynu u fadhina u really think oromo stands a chance to rule ethiopia

[PureQ]

@lol comparing the barbarian hawiye to submissive oromos

[AbdiWahab252]

Talo ... ina adeer, you hit the nail on the head. The Hawiye were politically undecided and not antigovernment until the Barre regime's harrying of the Hawiye in the late 1980s. The campaign against the Hawiye started in Mudug and Galgaduud then spread into Hiiraan. Shabelle Dhexe, and Hoose were the last bastions of Hawiyedom to join the insurgency. They did not feel the brunt of the regime's actions until later in the game.

The Oromo are walking down the same path but lack a unified charismatic leader to spearhead the insurgency. Once they find their Caydiid, then their march to Fifinne will be felt across the region.

[MaydhMax]

Talo ... ina adeer, you hit the nail on the head. The Hawiye were politically undecided and not antigovernment until the Barre regime's harrying of the Hawiye in the late 1980s. The campaign against the Hawiye started in Mudug and Galgaduud then spread into Hiiraan. Shabelle Dhexe, and Hoose were the last bastions of Hawiyedom to join the insurgency. They did not feel the brunt of the regime's actions until later in the game.

The Oromo are walking down the same path but lack a unified charismatic leader to spearhead the insurgency. Once they find their Caydiid, then their march to Fifinne will be felt across the region.

but what if the oromo also have an ali mahdi amongst them too

[AbdiWahab252]

Talo ... ina adeer, you hit the nail on the head. The Hawiye were politically undecided and not antigovernment until the Barre regime's harrying of the Hawiye in the late 1980s. The campaign against the Hawiye started in Mudug and Galgaduud then spread into Hiiraan. Shabelle Dhexe, and Hoose were the last bastions of Hawiyedom to join the insurgency. They did not feel the brunt of the regime's actions until later in the game.

The Oromo are walking down the same path but lack a unified charismatic leader to spearhead the insurgency. Once they find their Caydiid, then their march to Fifinne will be felt across the region.

but what if the oromo also have an ali mahdi amongst them too

The Gadaa will reign supreme over any candidate.