Ras Hawdian explains Amhara-Oromo power-struggle

[AwRastaale]

In a single diagram, I explain why I believe the Amhara have the upper hand when it comes to who will grab the power in post-TPLF era. Oromo maybe majority but large segment is a swing-power that will likely reward the Amhara in return for their own favors.



Shoa and Wollo will be big power breaker between the two giant forces. So far it appears Amhara will likely secure Oromo backing in these intersection regions.

This diagram is not based on likes or dislikes of one group but my understanding of the geopolitics of Ethiopia and the historical relations.

Keep in mind that Oromo have two main power centers; Arsi and the Yejju. All Amhara need to do is win over the Yejju of Wollo and partial if not all of Shoa (Oromo). The said 34-36 million Oromo cluster is not as it appears. It is merely a cluster. It will be 20 or so million Amhara, Gurage, Shoa and Wollo Oromo vs 8-10 million Arsi.

Forget the rest of Oromo they are largely powerless.

The reason Arsi differ is they have very complex egalitarian political and social hierarchy as well as system of relationships (aanooma, Soddooma, and the most important one, Arsoomaa). Basically those three relations are; parentage/ancestry, marriage and Arsihood.

The Arsi settle the largest of land amongst any Oromo sub-group extending from Arsi zone, Bale, Sidamo, Guji, southeastern Shewa. This my friends is by far the most interesting group that fascinate me. Arsi often fly the flag that most reflects the Arsi/Borana beliefs or Gadaa, which is the black, red and white flag----which represents the colors of the Qaallu turban/cimamad/kofiyad. Qaallu is the spiritual leader in Waaqism like imam or sheikh.



The other flag that you often see belongs to the OLF and later hijacked by OPDO.

Jacky Gosee, an Amhara from Wollo, dedicating a song to the Oromo struggle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVmAZ4pFBPk

The Amhara singing war tunes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b1pO9M7D-Y

Discuss.

[theyuusuf143]

In my opinion amhara are not in a position to dictate the game. They hold no political power, resources and military to divide oromo initially after the fall of TPLF. It's more likely that the middle group will be the most influential . They will

1. bring both ethnics closer together
Or
2. Side with their own ethnic
Or
3. Create conflicts between The two ethnic groups.


You have to understand the Oromos are not just seeking rights, they are actually seeking bride and political glory. Somali proverb says "Nimaan talin jirin haduu taliyo, Nimaan tegi jirin ayaa taga" which basically means if the oppressed ones grab the power the former elites have no privilege. For centuries the Oromos have been dreaming to be the boss, if they win to defeat the tigray they will feel great about themselves and they won't stop until they are scoring more and more goals. Never ever underestimate the capabilities of the oppressed one. Grievance can lead to deadly revenge .

[Khalid Ali]

hawdian is actually right there are two political mindset with in the oromo from yejju and one from arsi. they have different political historical experiences with the ethiopia created by his majesty king menelik. the arsi fought oromos who were on the side of menelik the two never reconciled openly. the likes of ras gobana and others oromo is not one ethnic group its an ethnic group with in an ethnic group. amhara does not need to fight oromo oromo wiill reach out to amahara especially the oromo who have great historical ties with amhara


gacanyare

[AwRastaale]

TheYusuuf,

Fair points.

I never underestimate the mighty Oromo. Time and time again, I credited the Oromo for the success of many of Ethiopia's leaders.

The problem is not Oromo capabilities but the direction and ideological principles where things will head.

Equally the two Oromo power centers will cancel each others out like SL-Djib, SL-PL, PL-GM.

Having a common goal and aiming for that as a one unit will be the biggest obstacle more than the TPLF one.

Gacanyare,

Well said my friend.

Our Macha warrior, Abba Wachis, will soon come charging saying the Oromo movement will have little relevance with past history but the whole issue is about correcting historical mistakes and misrepresentations unless our friend wants to tell us it's about secession in a new breathe.

[XiiinFaniiin]

Damn..... I like this knowledge of internal ethopian politics you boys have.... If only we had a stable enough government then you guys would be the gabre of the future but obviously meddling in ethopian affairs

[Waachis]

The Amhara don't have any significant Oromo allies even from the traditional people who did ally with them in the past, the Oromo from shoa, yejju, wollo, and wallaga.
The awakening of amhara-ized Oromo started over 40 years ago with people like taddese birru who was once the epitome of an assimilated Oromo. He spoke perfect amharic, had an Amhara wife, and was loyal to Ethiopia.
Once he found out about the targeting of the Oromo, he became enraged and dedicated himself fully to the Oromo cause.
The Oromo doesn't want independence but they won't be ruled by anyone anymore due to soaring political consciousness among them. The next rulers will be Oromo. The Oromo see the success of Eritrea and tigray and realized the Oromo are in a position to do way better than their tiny neighbors. The Oromo will have their own military as well strictly in Oromia to defend it. Only those who hate or fear us, would be against this.