The Somali Election Thread - Analysis & Prediction

[smooth]

Digil and Mirifle ambitions of being number 2 (speaker post) has gone, they will be running for the presidency, the top 4 positions of power in order currently are

1) President 2) speaker 3) prime-minister 4) foreign minister

This means on December 22 we are likely going to see a non D&M as speaker as Shariif hassan and both Jawaari have agreed they won't run for it this time, whichever Qabiil runs for it and wins it, that's it, no single tribe can hold two posts in the top positions, the greatest unknown shock will happen on that day, and there will be great panic, the rumours so far is that it's DIR, they will move from 4th power to the 2th in the country.

The election composes of 3 rounds, the first is the preliminary were the top 3 will go through to the second round, usually the lowest in the top 3 concedes by forming alliance in the second round, but if that doesn't happen the second round voting will present the final candidates for round 3, current top 4 candidates by number of votes rumoured.

1) CC (80's) 2) HSM (70's) 3) Shariif Hasan (69+) 4) Sheikh Shariif (50-)

In the first round as votes are all split among various candidates Shariif hassan will come out and blitz it with 69 of his handpicked guys whom no one else opposed, the second and third will have significantly less due to split votes (Faroole, Farmaajo, Yuulka will be having some of CC votes) and (Jibriil, HSM, Shariif, Shakur, Tarzan will split Hiirshabelle, Galmudug, Benadir votes)

It looks likely so far the top 3 in chronological order in the second round will be 1) Shariif hassan 2) CC 3) HSM This will probably be the first time the guy in the third position will not concede.

The second round of voting will start and Shariif hassan greatest chance of loosing is in this round if he can't significantly add to his 69 cronies he handpicked, his great hope is the DIR votes since Jawaari wrote that famous letter in support after HSM failed and humiliated them.

That could prove very costly, embolden by their speaker post (DIR) and shocked by the first round (Blitz) of Shariif Hasan, they will believe he has a chance and go for him, this is his chance, if he gets it, he will become one of the finalist and not loose, his only chance of loosing is in the second round not the final or the first. The worst person affected by these gains will be HSM, who will loose, CC won't be affected.

The DIR, HAG, D&M and good portion of the minorities will back him against CC in the final if he gives good concession, he will appoint HAG as a PM and Darood power will go from 3th to 4th in the country as foreign minister, he has the best chance to win against CC as a finalist.

CC leading PM picks as of now are 1) Shakur 2) Jibriil 3) Kulani. He has spoken to all three, Shakur looks like a done deal. His behaviour during the Mudug conflict going to both sides repeatedly, is winning him votes in Galmudug, I know of 5 that will vote for him without a doubt, he is currently the slight favourite in terms of votes, he will comfortably come out the first and second rounds, his greatest challenge will come in the final, his best chance of winning is facing off against HSM.

HSM path to victory is boosted after he got his way and the election won't be held in Xalane under IC control, further boosted by the agreement with Ahla Sheikh to support each other regardless, his main nemesis are the international community and even Keaton who wants a new face and leave the country with a sense of achievement once Ban Ki Moon term ends January.

The people in general love change and a new face, this is likely going to be his undoing, the same happened to Sheikh Shariif whom people didn't resent even close enough as they do to HSM. He will get out of the first, his greatest risk will be the second round of voting with Shariif hassan in the race.

Galmudug is going 50% his way due to Guleed handpicked people not sure about Hiirshabelle (leave it for Sahal), with South-West, P/land out of play leaving DIR he enraged badly. Even worse Guleed pretty much resigning from Galmudug with motions against him, Shariif hasan and Sheikh Shariif are making headway there even CC is picking up votes, bad news for HSM

The International community, the monitoring group, the Arab league, the aid organisations, Qatari's and the Turk's all want the return of Sheikh Shariif, if he gets out the first round, there is absolutely no doubt he will win it, but I doubt this will happen, both HSM and Shariif blocking his path of even getting out the first round, unless a miracle and a great treachery occurs, not being held in Xalane hurts him the most because the IC lobbies can't move as freely, he is the dark horse in this race, his greatest challenge is to get out the first round, if he does it he will win.


My Prediction

Finalist: Shariif hassan Vs CC
winner: Shariif Hasan


If Shariif hassan plays his cards right he will have this in the bag, his 69 hand picked voters from his state + some of the bitter DIR votes Jawari supported againt HSM + all the Galmudug votes that will go to him unanimously after he blitzes the first round (he is the most Pro-Galmudug candidate) and the rest of the minorities and HAG scared of CC will end up voting for him.

We are at the cusp of a potential history here with the first D&M President in Somalia, he is also looking at Jibriil as a PM I have been told, it's the only camp with absolute secrecy, every other camp you hear leaks left right and centre and he has the money for it, it's so secret no one really knows were the funding is coming from.

There is no way D&M giving up the number 2 position in the country, if they thought they never stood a chance at winning and potentially loose both and slip into 4th (foreign minister) sacrificing their speaker post.

I was told, he didn't even want to run, the 69 wanted D&M to run for presidency, this lead Shariif hasan asking Jawaari to run but Jawaari wanted him to run instead and the agreement was that they won't run for the speaker post which would nullify them from the presidency.

His 69 handpicked opponents sworn a pledge to him, prediction is that he will break the record in the first round, he added another 5 Galmudug to his list, so he is at least at 74 now, and rumours a few in Hiirshabelle.

[FarhanYare]

If Cumar buur wins; I will claim citizenship from SL

[NomadicSoul1]

So this is how the election is going to work. Voted by Mps? I wonder if any of them have received bribe offers lol.

[PrinceNugaalHawd]

Xassan sheikh & Cumar buur run to the UAE to get money lol


Sharif Sakin has DM that's it.

Cumar Cabdirashid has only Mjs.

Farole really has no chance

Sheikh Sharif also has a chance.

Xassan sheikh has a chance but many want change.

Yuulka & Farmaajo one of them had to concede to the other so the rest of Darood can vote for him.

The others only their sub clans support them.

My top pics for first round are Xassan Sheikh,Sheikh Sharif, Sharif Sakin, Cumar & Farmaajo.

Second round Xassan sheik, Sharif Sakin, Farmaajo & Sheikh Sharif.

Third round Xassan sheikh vs Farmaajo

New president Mohamed Abdulahi Mohamed (Farmaajo)

[smooth]

So this is how the election is going to work. Voted by Mps? I wonder if any of them have received bribe offers lol.

From the federal states only, it has been designed in a way that makes bribery incredibly costly, 14000 that are choosing them, impossible to bribe all, people's loyalty are going to be towards their federal states, rather then tribe. Which is what it's meant to be

If Cumar buur wins; I will claim citizenship from SL

CC is a very astute calm politician that doesn't pick any sides or enrage others, very calculative, diplomatic and balanced keeping his options open, I sat down with one of his campaigners in Galmudug and another in Jubaland, they speak very highly of him with facts.

My only beef with him is the UAE puppeteering which they downplay as I expected, not his Qabiil, they countered with his visits to Russia for arms, the only one interested making peace in Mudug, going there several times, sleeping both sides equal days, while HSM never visited only the other side.

The signing of Galmudug federal state only having his signature not HSM, his inflammatory speech in Burtinle accusing Gaas of hypocrisy "you claim the whole of Mudug, why can't they claim the same?" etc, mind you ofcourse the person speaking was related to his maternal side with deep hatred towards Sheikh Shariif (airport fiasco) and HSM (arms shipment to P/land) which I corrected him upon came from UAE.

The Ceyr and Saleeban votes are going for HSM each has 4, the Sacad is split Fiqhe (going for Shariif), Qeybdiid (HSM), Tahleel (Shariif) and the Jalaf guy (CC), mind you Guleed was unable to handpick the Sacad votes but did so to most others.

I am very surprised ceyr has forgiven HSM the greatest shock, Saleeban were furious particularly that women campaigning for Shariif, but were kept quiet with Odawaa replacing Guleed for leadership after he said he will resign.

The hilarious thing is that al-shabab published a hit list to kill all the voters and MP's, they killed so far 4, 3 of them HAG and 1 Raxanweyne, all of them were supporting Shariif (UAE anyone?)

[PrinceNugaalHawd]

My three favorite candidates are so far.

Sheikh Sharif
Farmaajo
Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed

Tarzan is also a good one but I don't know about the rest that much.

[smooth]

Xassan sheikh & Cumar buur run to the UAE to get money lol

Third round Xassan sheikh vs Farmaajo

New president Mohamed Abdulahi Mohamed (Farmaajo)

HSM and the UAE are bitter enemies now over the row with Turkey, Farmaajo will not make it out of the first round, I will be shocked and mortified if he will, please share were he will get his votes from and which states.

To my knowledge only 3 go towards the second round unless their is a tie vote (sahal or others will confirm) in your prediction your picking too many, if any candidate outside of Shariif Sakiin, HSM and CC reaches the second round I will be mortified.

The big day will be the speaker election on the 22 I believe, a DIR win which is highly likely will send Tsunami shock waves, it's not like previous elections, every side has money now and federal state interests is almost on par with tribal interests. Gaas and Faroole handpicked your people that will vote as they are told.

Farmaajo wouldn't even be top 3 if only Darood voted, CC, Yuulka and Faroole would have more votes then him, the most proven wadani people in this election are Tarzan, Farmaajo and Sheikh Shariif, only the sheikh is a dark horse here with the best chance amongst them.

Farmaajo is not popular with Darood or DIR and has a long running feud with Shariif Sakiin which lead to him being stripped from PM, those wounds are still there, believe it or not he has more support from HAG community then he has from anyone else, they are the only people that demonstrated on the streets of Xamar when Sheikh Shariif was forced by the IC/P/land/Ethiopia to strip him after fall out with Sakiin

[sahal80]

best analysis i have seen so far

here r my two cents

1/ hassan sheekh will be the only abgaal/HAG candidate who will make to the second round....no sharif, jibril, shakur etc.

CCC and farmajo will make to the second round(two Dblock candidates)

the last to make the second round is Sharif hassan

Dir have gone for hassan sheekh+plus HAG


that means he has more votes than CCC but things can change in the third round as no one likes the current president

D&M will vote for one of them based on how many important positions can they offer to them

if garguurte loses, HAG votes will go for farmajo

for this reason i dont think CCC has any chance.

[smooth]

Sahal

two questions bro, can you clarify whether more then 3 people go through to the second round? Every source I looked at it says only 3 will go through the second round unless their is a tie.

Can you clarify also where you think Farmaajo will get his votes from, he is the only candidate I have the least information on, in the Galmudug and P/land circles I hear nothing about him, even the MX candidate in Galmudug I have been told is up for sale.

Who do you think the speaker position will go to? DIR? how credible is your source that DIR will go for HSM ?


Thanks

[PrinceNugaalHawd]

Xassan sheikh & Cumar buur run to the UAE to get money lol

Third round Xassan sheikh vs Farmaajo

New president Mohamed Abdulahi Mohamed (Farmaajo)

HSM and the UAE are bitter enemies now over the row with Turkey, Farmaajo will not make it out of the first round, I will be shocked and mortified if he will, please share were he will get his votes from and which states.

To my knowledge only 3 go towards the second round unless their is a tie vote (sahal or others will confirm) in your prediction your picking too many, if any candidate outside of Shariif Sakiin, HSM and CC reaches the second round I will be mortified.

The big day will be the speaker election on the 22 I believe, a DIR win which is highly likely will send Tsunami shock waves, it's not like previous elections, every side has money now and federal state interests is almost on par with tribal interests. Gaas and Faroole handpicked your people that will vote as they are told.

Farmaajo wouldn't even be top 3 if only Darood voted, CC, Yuulka and Faroole would have more votes then him, the most proven wadani people in this election are Tarzan, Farmaajo and Sheikh Shariif, only the sheikh is a dark horse here with the best chance amongst them.

Farmaajo is not popular with Darood or DIR and has a long running feud with Shariif Sakiin which lead to him being stripped from PM, those wounds are still there, believe it or not he has more support from HAG community then he has from anyone else, they are the only people that demonstrated on the streets of Xamar when Sheikh Shariif was forced by the IC/P/land/Ethiopia to strip him after fall out with Sakiin

Our electors rejected Gaas, Faroole & Sharmaake people. So we good.

Farmaajo or Yuulka will get the rest of Darood and Farmaajo has other Somalis who support him.

[BarreLoyalist0]

the naked truth is the presidency will either go to CC or farmaajo and you can take my words

[smooth]

Our electors rejected Gaas, Faroole & Sharmaake people. So we good.

Farmaajo or Yuulka will get the rest of Darood and Farmaajo has other Somalis who support him.

I know Farmaajo has a big HAG base, how many electors are we talking that rejected those? and going towards Farmaajo? do you and Sahal have any information on his campaign and MP support base?

He is the candidate I have the least information about, the only people from whom I hear he has big chance is Sahal yourself and a MX friend, if he makes the second round, he will definitely win the presidency no doubt, but I have yet to hear a coherent convincing argument that he will, waiting for yourself or Sahal to post this, it's the only puzzle missing.

[PrinceNugaalHawd]

Our electors rejected Gaas, Faroole & Sharmaake people. So we good.

Farmaajo or Yuulka will get the rest of Darood and Farmaajo has other Somalis who support him.

I know Farmaajo has a big HAG base, how many electors are we talking that rejected those? and going towards Farmaajo? do you and Sahal have any information on his campaign and MP support base?

He is the candidate I have the least information about, the only people from whom I hear he has big chance is Sahal yourself and a MX friend, if he makes the second round, he will definitely win the presidency no doubt, but I have yet to hear a coherent convincing argument that he will, waiting for yourself or Sahal to post this, it's the only puzzle missing.

Pl did everything to influence and obstruct Dhulos, The Dhulbahante rejected the pro pl mps and elected pro Dhulbahante or Khaatumo ones.

We have 8 Mps + 2 or 3 senotors.

DAROOD WILL HAVE 18 to 19 senotors & 61 deputies. That's 70 votes..

Farmaajo or Yulka will have 54 votes from Darood

CCC has 16 secure, if Abshir Hassan's son doesn't run if he do then he takes 4 votes away from him.

Farmaajo can have 70 votes in the second round plus others votes.

Third round Farmaajo can come out on top vs Hassan Sheikh & Sakikn

[sahal80]

Sahal

two questions bro, can you clarify whether more then 3 people go through to the second round? Every source I looked at it says only 3 will go through the second round unless their is a tie.

Can you clarify also where you think Farmaajo will get his votes from, he is the only candidate I have the least information on, in the Galmudug and P/land circles I hear nothing about him, even the MX candidate in Galmudug I have been told is up for sale.

Who do you think the speaker position will go to? DIR? how credible is your source that DIR will go for HSM ?


Thanks

there is a deal between hassan and farmaajo to go together and vote for the other after the second round.....same pro-islamist groups and countries r backing them. farmajo is the only potential dark horse candidate this time.

it depends on who the D&M votes will go for. if they go for CCC, HAG will vote for farmajo

IF CCC only secures his clan votes, garguutrte thinks he can have chance

DIr have gone for garguurte 100% for sure. reasons? PL claiming their share in the upper house, losing mahad cawad. right now there is a war between cc and arte bc of garguurte.

in other words if the president has to be HAG it must be garguurte otherwise it will be farmajo.

[grandpakhalif]

Dir winning the Speaker position is just not possible nor acceptable. The 4.5 system's unwritten rule is that Hawiya and Darod receive top two positions anything less will spark a civil war, its just not conceivable. These elections winners and losers are clear

First Round: Sh. shariif, CC, HSM, Farmaajo, Shariif Xassan

2nd round: HSM, Sharif Xassan, Sheikh Sharif

3rd round winner: Sh. Shariif

Why Sh. Sharif? He has proven to have widespread Darod support and is more supported in Puntland/Jubbaland than any other leader. He is a true Federalist and advocated for Garowe 1 & 2, he also paved the way for Jubbaland state formation. Dont forget he has minority, Dir and a few HAG votes

2nd Round