The Somali Election Thread - Analysis & Prediction
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:55 am
Digil and Mirifle ambitions of being number 2 (speaker post) has gone, they will be running for the presidency, the top 4 positions of power in order currently are
1) President 2) speaker 3) prime-minister 4) foreign minister
This means on December 22 we are likely going to see a non D&M as speaker as Shariif hassan and both Jawaari have agreed they won't run for it this time, whichever Qabiil runs for it and wins it, that's it, no single tribe can hold two posts in the top positions, the greatest unknown shock will happen on that day, and there will be great panic, the rumours so far is that it's DIR, they will move from 4th power to the 2th in the country.
The election composes of 3 rounds, the first is the preliminary were the top 3 will go through to the second round, usually the lowest in the top 3 concedes by forming alliance in the second round, but if that doesn't happen the second round voting will present the final candidates for round 3, current top 4 candidates by number of votes rumoured.
1) CC (80's) 2) HSM (70's) 3) Shariif Hasan (69+) 4) Sheikh Shariif (50-)
In the first round as votes are all split among various candidates Shariif hassan will come out and blitz it with 69 of his handpicked guys whom no one else opposed, the second and third will have significantly less due to split votes (Faroole, Farmaajo, Yuulka will be having some of CC votes) and (Jibriil, HSM, Shariif, Shakur, Tarzan will split Hiirshabelle, Galmudug, Benadir votes)
It looks likely so far the top 3 in chronological order in the second round will be 1) Shariif hassan 2) CC 3) HSM This will probably be the first time the guy in the third position will not concede.
The second round of voting will start and Shariif hassan greatest chance of loosing is in this round if he can't significantly add to his 69 cronies he handpicked, his great hope is the DIR votes since Jawaari wrote that famous letter in support after HSM failed and humiliated them.
That could prove very costly, embolden by their speaker post (DIR) and shocked by the first round (Blitz) of Shariif Hasan, they will believe he has a chance and go for him, this is his chance, if he gets it, he will become one of the finalist and not loose, his only chance of loosing is in the second round not the final or the first. The worst person affected by these gains will be HSM, who will loose, CC won't be affected.
The DIR, HAG, D&M and good portion of the minorities will back him against CC in the final if he gives good concession, he will appoint HAG as a PM and Darood power will go from 3th to 4th in the country as foreign minister, he has the best chance to win against CC as a finalist.
CC leading PM picks as of now are 1) Shakur 2) Jibriil 3) Kulani. He has spoken to all three, Shakur looks like a done deal. His behaviour during the Mudug conflict going to both sides repeatedly, is winning him votes in Galmudug, I know of 5 that will vote for him without a doubt, he is currently the slight favourite in terms of votes, he will comfortably come out the first and second rounds, his greatest challenge will come in the final, his best chance of winning is facing off against HSM.
HSM path to victory is boosted after he got his way and the election won't be held in Xalane under IC control, further boosted by the agreement with Ahla Sheikh to support each other regardless, his main nemesis are the international community and even Keaton who wants a new face and leave the country with a sense of achievement once Ban Ki Moon term ends January.
The people in general love change and a new face, this is likely going to be his undoing, the same happened to Sheikh Shariif whom people didn't resent even close enough as they do to HSM. He will get out of the first, his greatest risk will be the second round of voting with Shariif hassan in the race.
Galmudug is going 50% his way due to Guleed handpicked people not sure about Hiirshabelle (leave it for Sahal), with South-West, P/land out of play leaving DIR he enraged badly. Even worse Guleed pretty much resigning from Galmudug with motions against him, Shariif hasan and Sheikh Shariif are making headway there even CC is picking up votes, bad news for HSM
The International community, the monitoring group, the Arab league, the aid organisations, Qatari's and the Turk's all want the return of Sheikh Shariif, if he gets out the first round, there is absolutely no doubt he will win it, but I doubt this will happen, both HSM and Shariif blocking his path of even getting out the first round, unless a miracle and a great treachery occurs, not being held in Xalane hurts him the most because the IC lobbies can't move as freely, he is the dark horse in this race, his greatest challenge is to get out the first round, if he does it he will win.
My Prediction
Finalist: Shariif hassan Vs CC
winner: Shariif Hasan
If Shariif hassan plays his cards right he will have this in the bag, his 69 hand picked voters from his state + some of the bitter DIR votes Jawari supported againt HSM + all the Galmudug votes that will go to him unanimously after he blitzes the first round (he is the most Pro-Galmudug candidate) and the rest of the minorities and HAG scared of CC will end up voting for him.
We are at the cusp of a potential history here with the first D&M President in Somalia, he is also looking at Jibriil as a PM I have been told, it's the only camp with absolute secrecy, every other camp you hear leaks left right and centre and he has the money for it, it's so secret no one really knows were the funding is coming from.
There is no way D&M giving up the number 2 position in the country, if they thought they never stood a chance at winning and potentially loose both and slip into 4th (foreign minister) sacrificing their speaker post.
I was told, he didn't even want to run, the 69 wanted D&M to run for presidency, this lead Shariif hasan asking Jawaari to run but Jawaari wanted him to run instead and the agreement was that they won't run for the speaker post which would nullify them from the presidency.
His 69 handpicked opponents sworn a pledge to him, prediction is that he will break the record in the first round, he added another 5 Galmudug to his list, so he is at least at 74 now, and rumours a few in Hiirshabelle.
1) President 2) speaker 3) prime-minister 4) foreign minister
This means on December 22 we are likely going to see a non D&M as speaker as Shariif hassan and both Jawaari have agreed they won't run for it this time, whichever Qabiil runs for it and wins it, that's it, no single tribe can hold two posts in the top positions, the greatest unknown shock will happen on that day, and there will be great panic, the rumours so far is that it's DIR, they will move from 4th power to the 2th in the country.
The election composes of 3 rounds, the first is the preliminary were the top 3 will go through to the second round, usually the lowest in the top 3 concedes by forming alliance in the second round, but if that doesn't happen the second round voting will present the final candidates for round 3, current top 4 candidates by number of votes rumoured.
1) CC (80's) 2) HSM (70's) 3) Shariif Hasan (69+) 4) Sheikh Shariif (50-)
In the first round as votes are all split among various candidates Shariif hassan will come out and blitz it with 69 of his handpicked guys whom no one else opposed, the second and third will have significantly less due to split votes (Faroole, Farmaajo, Yuulka will be having some of CC votes) and (Jibriil, HSM, Shariif, Shakur, Tarzan will split Hiirshabelle, Galmudug, Benadir votes)
It looks likely so far the top 3 in chronological order in the second round will be 1) Shariif hassan 2) CC 3) HSM This will probably be the first time the guy in the third position will not concede.
The second round of voting will start and Shariif hassan greatest chance of loosing is in this round if he can't significantly add to his 69 cronies he handpicked, his great hope is the DIR votes since Jawaari wrote that famous letter in support after HSM failed and humiliated them.
That could prove very costly, embolden by their speaker post (DIR) and shocked by the first round (Blitz) of Shariif Hasan, they will believe he has a chance and go for him, this is his chance, if he gets it, he will become one of the finalist and not loose, his only chance of loosing is in the second round not the final or the first. The worst person affected by these gains will be HSM, who will loose, CC won't be affected.
The DIR, HAG, D&M and good portion of the minorities will back him against CC in the final if he gives good concession, he will appoint HAG as a PM and Darood power will go from 3th to 4th in the country as foreign minister, he has the best chance to win against CC as a finalist.
CC leading PM picks as of now are 1) Shakur 2) Jibriil 3) Kulani. He has spoken to all three, Shakur looks like a done deal. His behaviour during the Mudug conflict going to both sides repeatedly, is winning him votes in Galmudug, I know of 5 that will vote for him without a doubt, he is currently the slight favourite in terms of votes, he will comfortably come out the first and second rounds, his greatest challenge will come in the final, his best chance of winning is facing off against HSM.
HSM path to victory is boosted after he got his way and the election won't be held in Xalane under IC control, further boosted by the agreement with Ahla Sheikh to support each other regardless, his main nemesis are the international community and even Keaton who wants a new face and leave the country with a sense of achievement once Ban Ki Moon term ends January.
The people in general love change and a new face, this is likely going to be his undoing, the same happened to Sheikh Shariif whom people didn't resent even close enough as they do to HSM. He will get out of the first, his greatest risk will be the second round of voting with Shariif hassan in the race.
Galmudug is going 50% his way due to Guleed handpicked people not sure about Hiirshabelle (leave it for Sahal), with South-West, P/land out of play leaving DIR he enraged badly. Even worse Guleed pretty much resigning from Galmudug with motions against him, Shariif hasan and Sheikh Shariif are making headway there even CC is picking up votes, bad news for HSM
The International community, the monitoring group, the Arab league, the aid organisations, Qatari's and the Turk's all want the return of Sheikh Shariif, if he gets out the first round, there is absolutely no doubt he will win it, but I doubt this will happen, both HSM and Shariif blocking his path of even getting out the first round, unless a miracle and a great treachery occurs, not being held in Xalane hurts him the most because the IC lobbies can't move as freely, he is the dark horse in this race, his greatest challenge is to get out the first round, if he does it he will win.
My Prediction
Finalist: Shariif hassan Vs CC
winner: Shariif Hasan
If Shariif hassan plays his cards right he will have this in the bag, his 69 hand picked voters from his state + some of the bitter DIR votes Jawari supported againt HSM + all the Galmudug votes that will go to him unanimously after he blitzes the first round (he is the most Pro-Galmudug candidate) and the rest of the minorities and HAG scared of CC will end up voting for him.
We are at the cusp of a potential history here with the first D&M President in Somalia, he is also looking at Jibriil as a PM I have been told, it's the only camp with absolute secrecy, every other camp you hear leaks left right and centre and he has the money for it, it's so secret no one really knows were the funding is coming from.
There is no way D&M giving up the number 2 position in the country, if they thought they never stood a chance at winning and potentially loose both and slip into 4th (foreign minister) sacrificing their speaker post.
I was told, he didn't even want to run, the 69 wanted D&M to run for presidency, this lead Shariif hasan asking Jawaari to run but Jawaari wanted him to run instead and the agreement was that they won't run for the speaker post which would nullify them from the presidency.
His 69 handpicked opponents sworn a pledge to him, prediction is that he will break the record in the first round, he added another 5 Galmudug to his list, so he is at least at 74 now, and rumours a few in Hiirshabelle.
