fanaanYG wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2017 8:58 pm
Banadir nothing will change, it will be the way its between Mudulood, HG, Murudsade and cad cad, governor of banadir will always be Mudulood.
Mudulood will take a break from Presidency job and focus on Hirshabeele, revolution starts tomorrow in few hours time, to get rid off Hirshabeele president, then link jawhar to ceeldheer and take back ceeldheer from galmudug, its up to galmudug to take matabaan from hiiraan which they already control, Mudulood will create hovoc to land lock hiiraan, and take back mudulood hiiraan lands and link with Jawhar, new port build in cadale and link Mogadishu cadale and ceeldheer. New Maamul goboleed revolutions will take place, Puntland will split into mini states, Galmudug ahlusuna join will depend if they agree or not and will stay how they are now or join, Hiiraan will split in to each clans tuulo, Mudulood will link between ceeldheer and Mogadishu, shabeelada hoose to kismayu will see new wars.
People will take your post as a wind up, although I don't entirely agree, you are pretty much on track with this, Farmaajo's plan which I wrote in SSpot topic is Anti federalism and for that to work, he has to first dismantle the whole thing one delicate piece at a time and the rest will crumble on itself. If he doesn't destroy federalism he will FAIL, any Quasi federalism that you typed will fail even harder!!
HSM wanted to do the same thing, but the Ethiopian influence was way too strong and he had no concrete plans or long term strategy plan A/B other than bribing this candidate or that candidate with no public support unlike Farmaajo who is more popular in every region then the actual federal leader which is a unique position no one else had, he also has a concrete plan.
If he starts with & miscalculates in Galmudug he will be toast very quickly, with Guleed gone, this will be the most complicated issue, any stupid move for either ceeldheere, or appoint that Sufi Bakhti Saint whose group is actually divided in 3 fractions, will be his downfall much like Barre regime, the whole conflict started there.
If he tries appointing governors in Galmudug first, the neutral/supportive Sacad/Saleeban will rebel against him 100% & form a coalition with fractions of Mudulood and he will be gone very quickly, even ceyr fractions would join, there is already simmering low level anger building up for his shady dealings with them and dishonesty.
The best thing for him is to remain quiet and see how things play out there and focus on low hanging easy fruits like Hiirshabelle to set the powerful precedent first, it will be the most easiest to dismantle as they are the most fragile, once it collapses, begin to appoint mayors to each city.
This will set a massive precedent and shock-wave across the country and I am pretty sure both sides will favour this more than current arrangements. Most Somali's are Anti Federalism anyway, it just needs someone to ignite the fuse to collapse the entire Ethiopian project up and down the entire country.
P/land as a state will collapse on it's own weight nothing needs to be done there, just needs to be quiet about it, the same will happen in S/land, J/land and South-West will be tricky due to Ethiopian troops there with the latter already crumbling, the real easy litmus test will come in Hiirshabelle, if he doesn't take that golden opportunity to send the shock-waves he will fail miserably.
In fact if he persists with the federalism model he will fail, because the moment the wave of populism dies down, all it takes is 1/2 of those leaders to turn against him which is inevitable, his entire government will become ineffective as the renegades will ally naturally with Ethiopia against him, Federalism is basically that open door, that gateway for Ethiopian to continue destabilising Somalia, it needs to be destroyed.
It's the same mistake HSM made, he tried the centralised model haphazardly, the dumbest mistake was to publicly oppose federalism which immediately made him enemy number one, when it failed he tried to become Pro Ethiopia himself to counter the federal states opposed to him, this type of problem will not exist in a governor centralised model, each dude is busy on his own city/village with no collective responsibilities.
Farmaajo despite his populism if he makes the mistake announcing this, he will be toast as well, the Hiirshabelle opportunity is one of a life-time, that his predecessors didn't have, this will be the key to everything.
