i expect snap elections in 2018-19

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sahal80
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i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by sahal80 »

US ambassador to Somalia has resigned after he seen the deep political chaos that has emerged recently. Diplomats care about their reputation bc any failure will effect badly their career. Its also a bad sign for this govt.

In this chaotic situation the presidential race has begun. Abdi wali gaas is eying again mogadishu and he is not thinking for a second term in PL that why he signs deals with UAE that could profit him financially according to the lady in the video

http://sahanonline.com/2015/08/madaxwey ... -puntland/

HG is threatening with a rebellion(another scenario besides losing the confidence)


recent Hirshabelle arrangements r helping more the rati abgaal politicians wich waare is in cahoots with them as Osoble was pro Damjadiiid. .

Madoobe and shariif sakiin are starting a battle in the parliament.

All these developments have brought a conclusion that we will have an early election some time by 2018 and early 2019.


Last edited by sahal80 on Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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FBISOMALIA
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by FBISOMALIA »

There is no election .

Like we wait Damjadiid finish their term. you have to wait for farmajoo too .
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sahal80
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by sahal80 »

Damjadiid had local support(Xamar) and regional allies

This Govt has none and is not reconciliatory-oriented.

Iswaalwaalkeeda bay daaqada uga baxee not al baabka.
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by FBISOMALIA »

^

You forget important element here. Amisom.

South somalia clans has no word in xamar since there is Amisom

UN decided somalia election is in 2021 or 2020 .

SNA forces to be ready by then under the orders of Farmajooo.
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sahal80
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by sahal80 »

Kkkk ironically this happened to your yeey

Both ethiopia and uganda respect the locals bc of that defeat, they will not fight for this govt and the army is local. If riots took place it will lead automatically to IGAD intervention and political settlement like locally backed pm and early elections.

This is now happens in Galmudug next will be xamar.

This govt has lost initiative in galmudug then you will see other regions abd then xamar.

It will be kampla2
wadnahadhiiga
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by wadnahadhiiga »

sahal80 wrote: Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:21 am Kkkk ironically this happened to your yeey

Both ethiopia and amisom respect the locals bc of that defeat, they will not fight for this govt and the army is local. If riots take place it will lead automatically to IGAD intervention and political settlement like locally backed pm and early elections.

This is now happens in Galmudug next will be xamar.

This govt has lost initiative in galmudug then you will see other regions abd then xamar.
Biggest beneficiaries of Galmudug situation are DJ, This government started anti Xaaf but beneficiaries are DJ Damu jadiid who are trying to get back their lost state.

DJ have who lost Galmudug to Xaaf and they still have local clan militias who are loyal to individual DJ HG members who want to get rid of Xaaf and replace him with Axmed shariif.
inner Sacad and Inner Saleebaan and even Ceyr all have DJ members in Cadaado.

HG friend of mine told me Sacad split subclans each supporting one side DJ or the other Xaaf,
Saleebaan only one subclan is with DJ and Minister of that clan who have loyal militia is causing problems and protects the spoilers.

Ceyr have DJ individuals, and ahlusuna who want Galmudug to vanish and all become under Gobolada dhexe.

My friend who is ceyr told me, ceyr elders are in Cadaado and want to get rid of ahlusuna and join Galmudug, Galaal who came to cadaado he was a big political and military leader of ahlusuna is now against them after ahlusuna refused his request, he came to Cadaado and asked saleeban clan to give him a militias to fight against ahlusuna but the elders refused and said they want everything to be sort out via talks.

when this beef between ahlusuna and Galaal comes on surface remember where you heard first.

Galmudug Cadaado elders are now calming the situation but DJ did not give up and for how long the elders can calm is unknown.

You have Xaaf against DJ who have a militias inside + Federal government who have political game against galmudug outside + ahlusuna who want Galmudug to Vanish.
Last edited by wadnahadhiiga on Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:05 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by barbarossa »

President Farmaajo's ' best before date' should not be tampered with.
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by wadnahadhiiga »

I heard that Southwest state Shariif Sakiin is already peppering Motion, but watch closely Ethiopia she might not be happy.

Ethiopia are in between a hard rock and stone, her babies are on both sides.

on one hand Farmaajo/ kheyre Government are Ethiopian own puppet government and the the real president who take order from addis ababa is jamaamulidiin Mustafa Cumar, The Ethiopian Ambassador to Somalia

Image

on the other hand, Southwest state, Puntland and Jubaland are Ethiopia's kids that puts Ethiopia between hard rock and stone but her aim is Somalia to remind chaos and loyal so lets wait and see what Ethiopia does
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by paperino »

So, sahal has postponed his predictions from a few months after the Qalbidhagax incident to a few years later? Interesting.
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sahal80
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by sahal80 »

paperino wrote: Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:17 am So, sahal has postponed his predictions from a few months after the Qalbidhagax incident to a few years l.ater? Interesting.
i always say a year and half. I extended it to 2019 to add other powers who are after the villa seat. HG was just against khayre while abgaal were looking for a chance to reclaim back unukaleh so they r agaunst farmaajo not khayre. galmudug develipment have forced HG to go for removing farmaajo option. Not just like fiqi said but they also chair gudiga dastuurka and can accuse him of khiyano qaran and breaching dastuurka

Hawadle r looking for better than Farmaajo and khayre and not Damjadiid and the new president is allied with non damjadiid abgaal groups like sh sharif.
http://www.warqaad.info/xog-beelaha-abg ... jo-kheyre/


We r now at a point no one respects this govt. Maamulgoboleeds are attending shirka kismaayo yet rejected to attend "shirka dawlada" wich is aimed at sabotaging the other conference. I will post soon wasiirka duulista hirshabelle rejecting it kkkk osoble still is runs the show

So has no single maamulgoboleed support
http://badweyntimes.com/2017/10/maamul- ... dastuurka/

Gudiyada dastuurka are against it
http://hiiraanxog.net/2017/10/07/akhris ... -muqdisho/

Big clans of xamar. losing its legitimacy in 8 months. Mr 8 months is in a deep trouble.
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sahal80
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by sahal80 »





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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by Kornel »

I didn't need to read beyond the first line as I know the US ambassador has been diagnosed with liver cancer.
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Adali
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Re: i expect snap elections in 2018-19

Post by Adali »

You said this government wouldn't last past Sept/October and now you are saying 2 years ? You also said the Qalbi dhegax incident was the undoing of this government, I said it will all be forgotten about within a 2 months.

you make this crazy political prediction that never actually prove to be true.
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