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And what are these predictions based on ? If you don't mind me askingBen Dover wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:37 pm Alright, post below your official prediction for the upcoming Somaliland election. Let us see who will get it right
Maroddijeex-------------Kulmiye
Togdheer-----------------Kulmiye
Awdal--------------------Wadani
Sanaag-------------------Kulmiye
Saaxil--------------------Kulmiye
Sool----------------------Kulmiye
Only Awdal may vote Wadani, but it will be very close.
Yes, it will be a Kulmiye landslide.
Overall I predict Kulmiye to bring in ~54% of the total vote.
Turnout will be ~63%.
Warya @SuldanMapleSyrup, do your statistical analysis, what is your official prediction?
SuldaanMaplesyrup wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:20 pm Aad iyo aad baad mahadsantahay Mudane Ben Dover.
It's been a long election campaign reer Somaliland and it is finally coming to a close. An election that has been long overdue is now within a week's time from now. We've seen the good, we've seen the bad, and we've definitely seen the ugly.
I've been working on this comprehensive district-by-district election prediction since late August, but with the campaign drawing to a close I've finally been able to put the final touches on it.
WARNING: If you easily triggered by predictions that are contrary to your beliefs, please exit this thread immediately
Methodology
In order to gain a sense as to how each district will vote, I've used various sources of information that are readily available to come up with a final prediction. These include:
1. Previous voting patterns (i.e. results from the 2010 presidential and 2012 municipal elections)
2. Turnout during each party's rally
3. Performance during the televised national debate
4. Chatter on social media
Calculations
To calculate the raw number of votes, I used the number of voters of who picked up their ID cards, and multiplied it by varying levels of turnout for each district, which gave me a # of valid votes value. In the Isaaq and Dir districts I gave a 60% turnout, while in the Darood districts, I gave a 40% turnout with the exceptions of Laascaanood (50% turnout) and Badhan (30% turnout).
Results
I preface this by stating that these predictions are based on my own personal opinion, and that if you easily discomforted by numbers that contradict your beliefs, please save yourself the time & energy by exiting this thread.
AWDAL
Saylac: a district shared by the Ciise and the Maxamed Case of Samaroon, it experienced an almost even split of voters in the 2010 presidential elections. A relatively quiet district, I do not forsee much change in this election.
Prediction: 50% Kulmiye, 45% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 55% of the vote)
Lughaya: another district for the Maxamed Case and also the home riding of VP Saylici and Professor Axmed Samatar, it too faced an even split in the 2010 elections. With Saylici running for a second time and Prof Samatar likely to get a high cabinet position, however, it is clear that Kulmiye has the upper hand in this district.
Prediction: 60% Kulmiye, 35% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 48% of the vote)
Borama: the district home to the Makaahiil of Samaroon (arguably make up the bulk of the tribe), it has shown tremendous support for Wadani in recent months. Conversely, it is also home to the Habar Canfaan of the Samaroon who's main man Axmed Muumin Seed was humiliated during the competition for Wadani vice-presidency in 2016. As well, many have praised Kulmiye for the development that has happened in the district during their time and power, and are likely to show their gratitude through votes.
Prediction: 60% Wadani, 35% Kulmiye, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 79% of the vote)
Baki: another Makaahiil district, it is also likely to sway in Wadani's favour. It did provide a considerable amount of support to Kulmiye in 2010, and it is likely that the same will happen again in 2017.
Prediction: 55% Wadani, 30% Kulmiye, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 67% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 54% Wadani, 41% Kulmiye, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 73% of the vote)
MAROODI JEEX
Gabiley: a densely populated district often mistaken as its own province, this is the heartland for Muuse Biixi's Sacad Muse tribe. While the majority of the inhabitants are of the Jibril Abokor subclan, and not of Muuse Biixi's Xuseen Abokor subclan, it is almost a guaranteed win for Kulmiye. It is also important to note that both Wadani and UCID have received considerable support in the area in recent months.
Prediction: 70% Kulmiye, 15% Wadani, 15% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 73% of the vote)
Hargeisa: as the most populous and most diverse district in Somaliland, it will be the tightest race to watch. In 2010, Kulmiye enjoyed a smooth victory with the support of the various reer Hargeisa clans; while UCID surged due to the unified support of Faysal Ali Waraabe's Ciidagale clan. Today, it seems Kulmiye's support has been restricted to solely the Sacad Muse and a portion of the Isaxaaq Carre who have flourished under the Kulmiye administration; while a significant portion of Ciidagale have migrated to the Wadani in a strategic attempt to counter Muuse Biixi who does not enjoy warm relations with the clan. It is also important to note that many Somalilanders from other parts of the country have now settle in the capital region, and will have an effect.
Prediction: 40% Kulmiye, 40% Wadani, 20% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 45% of the vote)
Baligubadle: a district that consists entirely of the Arab clan, it shows strong support for Wadani. This is due in part to how the Arab clan felt slighted by the Kulmiye after their Xaqsoor failed to make it into the top 3 in the 2012 municipal elections and the post-election violence that ensued, as well as the presence of Cabdiqadir Jirde as Wadani's chairman. It is also important to note that following the 2012 municipal elections fiasco, Kulmiye funded a significant portion of the Hargeisa-Baligubadle road in an attempt to appease the clan, which may translate into votes in Kulmiye's favour. Campaign videos also suggest a decent showing for UCID in the district.
Prediction: 60% Wadani, 20% Kulmiye, 20% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 66% of the vote)
Salaxley: another homogenous district that consists of the Ciidagale clan, it provided a considerable amount of votes for UCID in 2010. This election, however, may prove otherwise as Wadani continues to tap into this clan's voter base. It is highly unlikely that Kulmiye will perform well at all in this district, especially with Muuse Biixi at the helm.
Prediction: 60% UCID, 30% Wadani, 10% Kulmiye (2010 Result: UCID won with 87% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 43% Kulmiye, 36% Wadani, 21% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 50% of the vote)
SAAXIL
Berbera: the port city that has been making global headlines in recent months will most certainly go in Kulmiye's favour come November 13. This is in part due to the fallout of Faysal Ali Waraabe and Jamaal Ali Hussein, which now means that UCID will get very votes in the district; and the multimillion dollar investments that the Kulmiye government has brought to the city. Berbera's majority Ciise Muuse population will give Kulmiye the bulk of votes the district, while Cirro's Musa Abdalle subclan of Habar Yoonis are likely to bring some votes in Wadani's favour.
Prediction: 70% Kulmiye, 25% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 52% of the vote)
Sheekh: a historic town in the mountains, it shares similar demographics as Berbera. As such the results in this district will somewhat mirror Berbera's results
Prediction: 65% Kulmiye, 30% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 56% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 69% Kulmiye, 26% Wadani, 5% UCID
TOGDHEER
Burco: the second largest city in Somaliland, it sees a fierce competition between Kulmiye and Wadani as Habar Yoonis and Habar Jeclo square off, attempting to outdo each other during campaign days. UCID does sees some support, as Faysal Ali Waraabe's ideas do resonate with many Burcaawis of all tribes. The presence of an Ciise Muuse minority, however, will likely give Kulmiye the slight edge over Wadani.
Prediction: 45% Kulmiye, 40% Wadani, 15% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 71% of the vote)
Oodweyne: a predominately Habar Yoonis district, it came out with a 3-way split in 2010. In this election, this will not be the case as Wadani surges in this district. It is also likely that Kulmiye and UCID may see some votes coming their way as there has been some support for both parties recently.
Prediction: 60% Wadani, 20% Kulmiye, 20% UCID (2010 Result: UCID won with 34% of the vote)
Buuhoodle: a highly contentious district, only the Solomadow of the Habar Jeclo were voting in this district in 2010. In this election, many Dhulbahante will be voting in this district as Somaliland continues to make strides in integrating the "disputed" regions into its sphere of influence. The results of this region, however, will not differ from 2010.
Prediction: 85% Kulmiye, 10% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 94% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 44% Kulmiye, 41% Wadani, 15% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 68% of the vote)
SOOL
Caynaba: a district dominated by various subclans of Habar Jeclo, it is without a doubt a guaranteed for Kulmiye. As in 2010, Kulmiye is expected to have a strong showing.
Prediction: 80% Kulmiye, 10% Wadani, 10% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 80% of the vote)
Laascaanood: a town that had a significantly low turnout in 2010, it is now expected to have a strong showing after being under Somaliland's control for over a decade. As the town is dominated by the Bahararsame and Jaamac Siyaad who are well represented in Kulmiye, it is expected that Kulmiye will have a comfortable victory in this district. UCID is also expected to gain votes from this region, as Faysal's strategic choice of having a Dhulbahante running mate provides a sense of inclusion for this clan. Wadani's pro-Somalia allegations may ironically bode well for them, as anti-Somalilanders may choose to vote for Wadani expecting them to bring Somaliland back into the union.
Prediction: 55% Kulmiye, 25% UCID, 20% Wadani (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 45% of the vote)
Xudun: a district that is dominated by the Naaleeye Axmed of the Dhulbahante, and contains a sizeable community of the Sacad Yoonis subclan of Habar Yoonis, it is likely to be split between the three parties.
Prediction: 40% Wadani, 30% Kulmiye, 30% UCID (Polling stations were closed in 2010 due to instability)
Taleex: a district that has recently come under Somaliland's command, it is likely be a close competition between Kulmiye and Wadani. Campaign videos do not suggest a strong showing for UCID
Prediction: 55% Kulmiye, 40% Wadani, 5% UCID (no elections took place in Taleex in 2010)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 67% Kulmiye, 17% Wadani, 16% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 73% of the vote)
SANAAG
Garadag: similar to Caynaba, it is a region that is almost entirely Habar Jeclo. Similar to 2010, Kulmiye will dominate the district.
Prediction: 80% Kulmiye, 10% Wadani, 10% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 81% of the vote)
Ceelafweyn: a district that is majority Habar Jeclo with a sizeable Habar Yoonis minority, it will be a comfortable lead for Kulmiye. Campaign videos show that Wadani will still be able to capture a portion of the vote, however.
Prediction: 65% Kulmiye, 25% Wadani, 10% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 66% of the vote)
Ceerigaabo: while this district shows considerable diversity, the bulk of votes will be coming from the Musa Ismail subclan of Habar Yoonis, who will vote strongly in Wadani's favour. Kulmiye's work in building the Burco-Ceerigaabo road, along with a sizeable Habar Jeclo community will provide Kulmiye with a sizeable number of votes, while Prof Abyan's Ugaadyahan subclan may help provide UCID with some votes in the district.
Prediction: 60% Wadani, 25% Kulmiye, 15% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 49% of the vote)
Badhan: a district in the far eastern regions of Sanaag, it is likely to be bound with security issues, especially as Puntland continues to escalate conflict in the area. Turnout in the district is not expected to be high, and there is a strong possibility that voting may not take place. With such few people voting in this district, it is difficult to determine a clear winner in the area.
Prediction: 33% Kulmiye, 33% Wadani, 33% UCID (2010 Result: UCID won with 53% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 43.3% Wadani, 43.0% Kulmiye, 13.7% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 49% of the vote)
NATIONAL TOTAL
47% Kulmiye, 38% Wadani, 15% UCID
Conclusion
With this analysis, it is predicted that Muuse Biixi and his Kulmiye party will win the 2017 Somaliland Presidential Election. The overall results reflect similar outcomes in the 2010 Somaliland Presidential Election. It appears that Kulmiye broad range of support will pay off as they will win 4 of the 6 regions. Wadani, on the other hand, shows that it is able to compete with Kulmiye in many regions, but fails to come on top. UCID, despite Faysal and Abyan's dominating performances at the Presidential & VP debate, remain a distant third.
My full dataset with raw numbers can be found here
May we have a peaceful and credible elections Somaliland
SuldaanMaplesyrup wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:20 pm Aad iyo aad baad mahadsantahay Mudane Ben Dover.
It's been a long election campaign reer Somaliland and it is finally coming to a close. An election that has been long overdue is now within a week's time from now. We've seen the good, we've seen the bad, and we've definitely seen the ugly.
I've been working on this comprehensive district-by-district election prediction since late August, but with the campaign drawing to a close I've finally been able to put the final touches on it.
WARNING: If you easily triggered by predictions that are contrary to your beliefs, please exit this thread immediately
Methodology
In order to gain a sense as to how each district will vote, I've used various sources of information that are readily available to come up with a final prediction. These include:
1. Previous voting patterns (i.e. results from the 2010 presidential and 2012 municipal elections)
2. Turnout during each party's rally
3. Performance during the televised national debate.
4. Chatter on social media
Calculations
To calculate the raw number of votes, I used the number of voters of who picked up their ID cards, and multiplied it by varying levels of turnout for each district, which gave me a # of valid votes value. In the Isaaq and Dir districts I gave a 60% turnout, while in the Darood districts, I gave a 40% turnout with the exceptions of Laascaanood (50% turnout) and Badhan (30% turnout).
Results
I preface this by stating that these predictions are based on my own personal opinion, and that if you easily discomforted by numbers that contradict your beliefs, please save yourself the time & energy by exiting this thread.
AWDAL
Saylac: a district shared by the Ciise and the Maxamed Case of Samaroon, it experienced an almost even split of voters in the 2010 presidential elections. A relatively quiet district, I do not forsee much change in this election.
Prediction: 50% Kulmiye, 45% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 55% of the vote)
Lughaya: another district for the Maxamed Case and also the home riding of VP Saylici and Professor Axmed Samatar, it too faced an even split in the 2010 elections. With Saylici running for a second time and Prof Samatar likely to get a high cabinet position, however, it is clear that Kulmiye has the upper hand in this district.
Prediction: 60% Kulmiye, 35% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 48% of the vote)
Borama: the district home to the Makaahiil of Samaroon (arguably make up the bulk of the tribe), it has shown tremendous support for Wadani in recent months. Conversely, it is also home to the Habar Canfaan of the Samaroon who's main man Axmed Muumin Seed was humiliated during the competition for Wadani vice-presidency in 2016. As well, many have praised Kulmiye for the development that has happened in the district during their time and power, and are likely to show their gratitude through votes.
Prediction: 60% Wadani, 35% Kulmiye, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 79% of the vote)
Baki: another Makaahiil district, it is also likely to sway in Wadani's favour. It did provide a considerable amount of support to Kulmiye in 2010, and it is likely that the same will happen again in 2017.
Prediction: 55% Wadani, 30% Kulmiye, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 67% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 54% Wadani, 41% Kulmiye, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 73% of the vote)
MAROODI JEEX
Gabiley: a densely populated district often mistaken as its own province, this is the heartland for Muuse Biixi's Sacad Muse tribe. While the majority of the inhabitants are of the Jibril Abokor subclan, and not of Muuse Biixi's Xuseen Abokor subclan, it is almost a guaranteed win for Kulmiye. It is also important to note that both Wadani and UCID have received considerable support in the area in recent months.
Prediction: 70% Kulmiye, 15% Wadani, 15% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 73% of the vote)
Hargeisa: as the most populous and most diverse district in Somaliland, it will be the tightest race to watch. In 2010, Kulmiye enjoyed a smooth victory with the support of the various reer Hargeisa clans; while UCID surged due to the unified support of Faysal Ali Waraabe's Ciidagale clan. Today, it seems Kulmiye's support has been restricted to solely the Sacad Muse and a portion of the Isaxaaq Carre who have flourished under the Kulmiye administration; while a significant portion of Ciidagale have migrated to the Wadani in a strategic attempt to counter Muuse Biixi who does not enjoy warm relations with the clan. It is also important to note that many Somalilanders from other parts of the country have now settle in the capital region, and will have an effect.
Prediction: 40% Kulmiye, 40% Wadani, 20% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 45% of the vote)
Baligubadle: a district that consists entirely of the Arab clan, it shows strong support for Wadani. This is due in part to how the Arab clan felt slighted by the Kulmiye after their Xaqsoor failed to make it into the top 3 in the 2012 municipal elections and the post-election violence that ensued, as well as the presence of Cabdiqadir Jirde as Wadani's chairman. It is also important to note that following the 2012 municipal elections fiasco, Kulmiye funded a significant portion of the Hargeisa-Baligubadle road in an attempt to appease the clan, which may translate into votes in Kulmiye's favour. Campaign videos also suggest a decent showing for UCID in the district.
Prediction: 60% Wadani, 20% Kulmiye, 20% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 66% of the vote)
Salaxley: another homogenous district that consists of the Ciidagale clan, it provided a considerable amount of votes for UCID in 2010. This election, however, may prove otherwise as Wadani continues to tap into this clan's voter base. It is highly unlikely that Kulmiye will perform well at all in this district, especially with Muuse Biixi at the helm.
Prediction: 60% UCID, 30% Wadani, 10% Kulmiye (2010 Result: UCID won with 87% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 43% Kulmiye, 36% Wadani, 21% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 50% of the vote)
SAAXIL
Berbera: the port city that has been making global headlines in recent months will most certainly go in Kulmiye's favour come November 13. This is in part due to the fallout of Faysal Ali Waraabe and Jamaal Ali Hussein, which now means that UCID will get very votes in the district; and the multimillion dollar investments that the Kulmiye government has brought to the city. Berbera's majority Ciise Muuse population will give Kulmiye the bulk of votes the district, while Cirro's Musa Abdalle subclan of Habar Yoonis are likely to bring some votes in Wadani's favour.
Prediction: 70% Kulmiye, 25% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 52% of the vote)
Sheekh: a historic town in the mountains, it shares similar demographics as Berbera. As such the results in this district will somewhat mirror Berbera's results
Prediction: 65% Kulmiye, 30% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 56% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 69% Kulmiye, 26% Wadani, 5% UCID
TOGDHEER
Burco: the second largest city in Somaliland, it sees a fierce competition between Kulmiye and Wadani as Habar Yoonis and Habar Jeclo square off, attempting to outdo each other during campaign days. UCID does sees some support, as Faysal Ali Waraabe's ideas do resonate with many Burcaawis of all tribes. The presence of an Ciise Muuse minority, however, will likely give Kulmiye the slight edge over Wadani.
Prediction: 45% Kulmiye, 40% Wadani, 15% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 71% of the vote)
Oodweyne: a predominately Habar Yoonis district, it came out with a 3-way split in 2010. In this election, this will not be the case as Wadani surges in this district. It is also likely that Kulmiye and UCID may see some votes coming their way as there has been some support for both parties recently.
Prediction: 60% Wadani, 20% Kulmiye, 20% UCID (2010 Result: UCID won with 34% of the vote)
Buuhoodle: a highly contentious district, only the Solomadow of the Habar Jeclo were voting in this district in 2010. In this election, many Dhulbahante will be voting in this district as Somaliland continues to make strides in integrating the "disputed" regions into its sphere of influence. The results of this region, however, will not differ from 2010.
Prediction: 85% Kulmiye, 10% Wadani, 5% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 94% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 44% Kulmiye, 41% Wadani, 15% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 68% of the vote)
SOOL
Caynaba: a district dominated by various subclans of Habar Jeclo, it is without a doubt a guaranteed for Kulmiye. As in 2010, Kulmiye is expected to have a strong showing.
Prediction: 80% Kulmiye, 10% Wadani, 10% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 80% of the vote)
Laascaanood: a town that had a significantly low turnout in 2010, it is now expected to have a strong showing after being under Somaliland's control for over a decade. As the town is dominated by the Bahararsame and Jaamac Siyaad who are well represented in Kulmiye, it is expected that Kulmiye will have a comfortable victory in this district. UCID is also expected to gain votes from this region, as Faysal's strategic choice of having a Dhulbahante running mate provides a sense of inclusion for this clan. Wadani's pro-Somalia allegations may ironically bode well for them, as anti-Somalilanders may choose to vote for Wadani expecting them to bring Somaliland back into the union.
Prediction: 55% Kulmiye, 25% UCID, 20% Wadani (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 45% of the vote)
Xudun: a district that is dominated by the Naaleeye Axmed of the Dhulbahante, and contains a sizeable community of the Sacad Yoonis subclan of Habar Yoonis, it is likely to be split between the three parties.
Prediction: 40% Wadani, 30% Kulmiye, 30% UCID (Polling stations were closed in 2010 due to instability)
Taleex: a district that has recently come under Somaliland's command, it is likely be a close competition between Kulmiye and Wadani. Campaign videos do not suggest a strong showing for UCID
Prediction: 55% Kulmiye, 40% Wadani, 5% UCID (no elections took place in Taleex in 2010)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 67% Kulmiye, 17% Wadani, 16% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 73% of the vote)
SANAAG
Garadag: similar to Caynaba, it is a region that is almost entirely Habar Jeclo. Similar to 2010, Kulmiye will dominate the district.
Prediction: 80% Kulmiye, 10% Wadani, 10% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 81% of the vote)
Ceelafweyn: a district that is majority Habar Jeclo with a sizeable Habar Yoonis minority, it will be a comfortable lead for Kulmiye. Campaign videos show that Wadani will still be able to capture a portion of the vote, however.
Prediction: 65% Kulmiye, 25% Wadani, 10% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 66% of the vote)
Ceerigaabo: while this district shows considerable diversity, the bulk of votes will be coming from the Musa Ismail subclan of Habar Yoonis, who will vote strongly in Wadani's favour. Kulmiye's work in building the Burco-Ceerigaabo road, along with a sizeable Habar Jeclo community will provide Kulmiye with a sizeable number of votes, while Prof Abyan's Ugaadyahan subclan may help provide UCID with some votes in the district.
Prediction: 60% Wadani, 25% Kulmiye, 15% UCID (2010 Result: UDUB won with 49% of the vote)
Badhan: a district in the far eastern regions of Sanaag, it is likely to be bound with security issues, especially as Puntland continues to escalate conflict in the area. Turnout in the district is not expected to be high, and there is a strong possibility that voting may not take place. With such few people voting in this district, it is difficult to determine a clear winner in the area.
Prediction: 33% Kulmiye, 33% Wadani, 33% UCID (2010 Result: UCID won with 53% of the vote)
REGIONAL TOTAL: 43.3% Wadani, 43.0% Kulmiye, 13.7% UCID (2010 Result: Kulmiye won with 49% of the vote)
NATIONAL TOTAL
47% Kulmiye, 38% Wadani, 15% UCID
Conclusion
With this analysis, it is predicted that Muuse Biixi and his Kulmiye party will win the 2017 Somaliland Presidential Election. The overall results reflect similar outcomes in the 2010 Somaliland Presidential Election. It appears that Kulmiye broad range of support will pay off as they will win 4 of the 6 regions. Wadani, on the other hand, shows that it is able to compete with Kulmiye in many regions, but fails to come on top. UCID, despite Faysal and Abyan's dominating performances at the Presidential & VP debate, remain a distant third.
My full dataset with raw numbers can be found here
May we have a peaceful and credible elections Somaliland
