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Inna Iilay is in the Ethiopian Capital There is a high chance he maybe forced to resign. Being in Addis he is at the mercy of the federal goverment who have chipped away at the Tigre overloads that where his natural backers in Addis.

This maybe the end of Iilay, but he is Previously survived attempts to replace him. However This is the weakest his ever been.

Watch this space for updates

I doubt it if Ahmed abiye fires ileey. This will be the biggest humiliation to ogaden. And what are the alternatives who is going to replace ileey. An onlf guy

If he's fired, then it'll be a clear indication that the tplf will be out of business and have lost control of the country. I doubt it very much that he will be fired tho because I still believe the tigray are running the country behind the scenes and the oromo pm is a ceremonial leader to appease the Oromo hordes.

Abdi iley is only useful for them as long as there is ONLF or anti-Ethiopia movement in the Somali kilil. The day that war is declared victorious, he will be disposed like a used condom.

Laughable how some of these folks think TPLF would choose Abdi iley over Abiy

Abiy is not only a well connected man to the intelligence apparatus, army, Amhara, Oromo, Muslims and Christians alike but no one has moved so many Ethiopians like him since Haile Selassie.

Addis



Bahir Dar



Now can abdi iley move 5% of that?

Also Abiy Ahmed is the key card for Eritrea-Tigray peace or revival of their relations. That's their back up plan should TPLF lose grip over Ethiopia which is the case day by day. That's why they need to normalise relations with Eritrea.

A good sign of TPLF coming to an end is that almost all Ethiopians rallying for Abiy are flying the original Ethiopian flag without the TPLF symbol/star. This is indication it's their own soft revolutionary and will pave the way for their ideologies. It is a coup within.

Debre Berhan



So if Abiy says no more ina iley then it will be that.

The West too likes Abiy as do Arab World. Abiy Ahmed is probably the best mind in Ethiopian politics since the days of Menelik and Meles Senawi.

If Ethiopia feels there is no more use for Abdi iley then they will replace him and they have lots of options. I do believe they do believe ONLF is defeated militarily, politically (oil is flowing out off the state) and ideologically (releasing the likes of Qalbi-dhagax to play good cop).

Now days you can be anti-Abdi iley and live freely in Addis, Adama, Meqelle or Bahir Dar.

speaking of Abiy he is now in Asmara paving the way for a Tigrai-exit or normalising relations with Eritrea in case they need to flee or have a launching pad for future rebellion.

Meanwhile Abdi iley will no longer use 'terrorist Eritrea financing nabadiid ONLF, umbo or whatever..."

Once owned always owned.

Meanwhile Tigrais convinced Cagdheer that Somalis are their enemies while Tigrais will not hesitate a second to make it up with his fellow Tigringya speaker. You got played bad.

Now Tigrais have oil and ports (Assab/Massawa) might be back.

Somalis are biggest losers including Djibouti now over ran by Gallas.

What about Berbera.......do you think the Xabahsi need that dump anymore?

I see the iidoor are shaking with fear as their tigray overlords lose grip on ethiopia.

In a last ditch effort for political survival, Iilay is now realigning his "support" to OPDO led EPRDF Abiye in an effort to prolong his stranglehold on the Somali region. To this end, we can expect the Liyu Police to stop attacking the Oromo and they will also likely not aid any particular Somali tribe at war with the Oromo, whether the Hawiye in Babile or the Garre in Moyaale.

It will not be an easy pill to swallow for the Oromo PM to back Iilay given the amount of opposition against his rule as well as crimes he committed against the Oromo. However, it would be convenient security wise given the almost complete control Iilay has over the Somali region with his militia and his ability to restrain Somali tribal fighters from crossing the border.

It's likely Iilay will eventually resign and the Somali groups in Addis will have a big impact on the administration that ends up replacing him. I predict with weakening border security as a result of various conflicts in the region, the loss of security of infrastructure apparatus laid by the TPLF in Somalia, will translate into greater flow of weapons through the region.

The ONLF having concluded it's conference in Asmara has taken a cautious approach to Abiye's overture