Ahmed madoowe messed up

[Typhoon]

things are not good in jubaland, i think a major war is coming.

I think reer jubaland should hold reconciliation conference as soon as possible, the situation is on par with 1998 morgan wars.
beelo ogadeen siba auliyahan have left the city taking their forces outside the city, so did gaaljecel.

ahmed madoowe has brought ex liyu police to kismayo, they are using jeel ogadeen tactic, sheekada faraha wa ka baxday.

we know were marexaan stands but the tipping point is auliyahan, they are pissed off and have taking their forces out and there are skirmishes between ahmed madoowe jilib and beesha auliyhan.

shirar ba weekaan ka daci doona nairbi in terms of whats happening in kismaayo

[metamorphosis]

Yeah about 30 guys left and came back to the city last week. you are a little late ugaas.


marehan should prepare a candidate for the elections. that's their only way in, farmaajo can't help you guys nor will recruiting child soldiers to fight a war outside of Gedo. war wakhtigii is badal sxb. maalmihii HG meesha idinku hayeen waa laga tagay.

[original dervish]

Bringing Liyu killers into Kismayo would be a huge miscalculation if true.

[dalalos101]

Typhoon what happened one day you think Madoobe is one of the good guys the next day you switch, the situation is actually building to something dangerous because of him, he is as power hungry as Iley and we see how that ended.

[Typhoon]

Yeah about 30 guys left and came back to the city last week. you are a little late ugaas.


marehan should prepare a candidate for the elections. that's their only way in, farmaajo can't help you guys nor will recruiting child soldiers to fight a war outside of Gedo. war wakhtigii is badal sxb. maalmihii HG meesha idinku hayeen waa laga tagay.

meta wa run this happend 2 days ago, another ciidan defected in afmadow, its inter ogadeen, its unrelated to marexaan, but it seems some nefarious political winds are approaching jubaland.

also yesterday 3 wiil oo marexaan ba guriga lagla baxay and word in the town is they are death(i think personally they locked up but it shows you there is extrajudicial killings and kidnappings)

the entire political elite in kismayo have lost the plot,they have become entrenched and forgot the objective of the state and the power dynamics in somalia.

tribalism is all time high, kismayo is becoming highly polarised forget about outside kismaayo, were ciidamada are segregated and the clans rule their land and only give lip service to the central government and the state government.

wallahi I dont see a solution to what is approaching us, everybody is fuelling the fire and everyone has a zero sum game mentality, i think eventually the central government will win and divide jubaland people and get rid of ahmed madowe by pouring money into the next election(which will set jubaland back to the 90s)

ahmed madoowe is the first president of the state, he is setting precedent like george washington, how manny terms does he want, how manny political fights does he want to engage in.


i think the old man blew a golden chance, dont accuse me of people pro marexaan because have been the biggest supporter of madoowe and jubaland on this sight.

jubaland will not recover from what happend to nisa and armed forces.

litterly ninkasta waxu iska ilaalinya kan ku xiga let alone inay iska ilaliyaan al shabab.

unlike xamar and other states, jubaland lacks institutions and jlands bright minds are either in xamar or nairobi

allow dadka kala badbadi

[Django]

Madhoobe is a criminal but who is there to replace him another criminal?

[Typhoon]

Bringing Liyu killers into Kismayo would be a huge miscalculation if true.

bro magalada waxa lugu arkay daqan somali laheen, the nisa and the jail officials have opted to using south east asian/ethiopian type torture tactic and its not against al shabab its against journalist and mucarad(central government supporters)

jubaland is using tplf and kacaan ahmed ismaciil ahmed tactic of forcing people to confess to crimes under duress.

there is a media blackout in kismaayo, some might think its us marexaan after power doing farmaajo biding, but wallahi to me this resemples what morgan did in 1998 to shacabka in order to win over majerteenka kismaayo and we know there was a decade long war until al shabab took over.

ahmed madoowe is targeting certain clans in order to win over other clans and marexaan and aliyahan are really fed up, we are lucky if we reach next election.

things are at a boiling point and all kinds of actors are flaming the flames weather in xamar or abroad.
there is allot of weapons in jubaland this wont be 1998 there are brand new modern weapons all over jubaland with wick chain of command and highly tribal forces.

i dont think kenya can do anything, uhuru is already under pressure can you imagen 100 kenyan soldiers being killed and another 50 being killed by al shabab in the same week, do you think kenyans will trust somalis weather shabab or federal forces, meaning kenyans will vacate the city and seek the commanding highest strategically, which will see tribal forces clashing it out in kismaayo while al shabab infiltrates the city.


my solution is a reconciliation conference as soon as possible and a clear road map to towards election should be set, let politicians focus their energy on the future and give them hope of poencial change

election system should be be made clear with rules and regulation and workshops should be held by unpos(dolar sidaas ha logu cuno UNPOS)
ahmed madoe should focus the people attention away from internal politics and focus sole on al shabab otherwise the chickens are coming home to roost and when they happens it will be to late and jubaland as viable state will be in question which will give anti federalist in xamar excuse to delay the constitution implamatation

[Typhoon]

Typhoon what happened one day you think Madoobe is one of the good guys the next day you switch, the situation is actually building to something dangerous because of him, he is as power hungry as Iley and we see how that ended.

i blame madoowe because the bucket stops with him, he did great job in terms of establishing jubaland and connecting it to the international community but the body politic of jubaland is as cesspool, madoowe is importing a lot of external problem that shake the foundations of jubaland peoples cohesion, unlike puntland and somaliland, jubaland populace have different political interest.the only thing we agree on is, economic development and security and on those both fronts madoowe seems to be aloof about.

jubaland insututions are non excistend, so tribalism is destroying the state, for most people jubaland has become a byword for ogadeen state, which is dangerous.

am rarely wrong in my analysis but we will see where we will be in in the summer of 2019

institutions are non existent in jubaland, while jland faces existential threat weather security wise or political cohesion,i hope its a stress test but if jubaland fails and madoowe shows lack of leadership, we will be back in the days of sovereign clans and warlords, all rallying their clans and on top of that the federal government interference will grow and exacerbate things.

i dont care weather madoowe stays for next 20 years, he needs to show leadership and take decisive actions that are in the states future intrest and stop appeasing the loud minority who want to direct him towards a tribal narrative and he needs to stop acting 19 century Mississippi corrupt county sherrif.

i didnt even get in to the charcoal will will effect jubaland for the next 100 years that will see farmland deservacation and will effect grassing land and increas famine and the death of lifestock
am noting saying he is sole to blame but he has industrialized it on mass scale, we are literally feeding the coal happit of mega cities in the arabian peninsula..mind blowing

[Khalid Ali]

What I know boni hunters from gedo are plotting to take down madoobe And want to encircle him politically and military I think madoobe will survive he has good security advisers in kismayo and is well connected in Nairobi. Falmaajo is using all his power to destabilize madoobe. But it can't work because madoobe has the support first from his qabiil second from Kenya . And now also the new south Africa guy won't side with Failmaajo and the marexaan.

[Typhoon]

What I know boni hunters from gedo are plotting to take down madoobe And want to encircle him politically and military I think madoobe will survive he has good security advisers in kismayo and is well connected in Nairobi. Falmaajo is using all his power to destabilize madoobe. But it can't work because madoobe has the support first from his qabiil second from Kenya . And now also the new south Africa guy won't side with Failmaajo and the marexaan.

weather there is ogadeen kismaayo ka taliya ama sade, hal wax ba ka siman nahay and that is, danta darood ba ku jirta the stability and progress of jubaland.

my only problem is the brain of daarood is either in nairobi, jigjiga or xamar, jubaland has become secondery issue which is very concerning.

the good thing is daroodwayne in nairobi are taking a lead to get the state back on track but i dont like their pace

[Khalid Ali]

I doubt that's true . Stability is all good I think every one wants that including uhurro kenyatta but waxa kaisku haya wa power iyo power sharing. Your clan was always in bed with hawiye with regards to kismayo politics. Kismayo is qalbiyan cilmiyan politically part of gaarisa.
I don't think ogaden care much about daarood since darood betrayed them more than any one. Qalbidhagax futtoole calling them not Somalis. I don't think ogadens believe in darood nimo any more.

[Typhoon]

I doubt that's true . Stability is all good I think every one wants that including uhurro kenyatta but waxa kaisku haya wa power iyo power sharing. Your clan was always in bed with hawiye with regards to kismayo politics. Kismayo is qalbiyan cilmiyan politically part of gaarisa.
I don't think ogaden care much about daarood since darood betrayed them more than any one. Qalbidhagax futtoole calling them not Somalis. I don't think ogadens believe in darood nimo any more.

all isaaqs believe in somaliland but all daaroods cant believe in daaroodnimo bal aqli ina uunsi firiya

the tit for tat between marexaan and ogadeen on this side is very clear but danta good wa ka simanahay and that is, stability progress and we should get our fair cut from the central government and international community, anything els is minor detail.

jubaland will always be darood state its neither marexaan or ogadeen state but daroodwayne republic

[Khalid Ali]

Balweynu eegi if there was a daroodnimo Than mj would not hand over a fellow darood to tigray. Or Failmaajo would not hand over qalbidhagax to the gallas
Bal weynu eegi if your daroodnimo stands in goyta ibn xiiraabo Theodorus. Time will tell.

[SuperLander]

Farmajo should stop being so useless and instead break up JL and make it cease to exist. He should directly rule each of the 3 JL regions separately

[Murax]

I think Kismaayo will be peaceful when Ethiopia/Kenya agree to let Somalia be an actual Country and stop their occupation. I think this Madoobe militia, Kenya/Eitho Army in Kismaayo with AS steps away has been cool for IGAD. That stalemate might remain for a few years.