I know the secessionists very well. A lot of talk not much action. One week or two of high euphoria then dead and back to retreating inside the former Colonial British office.
It's now clear Ethiopia is not entertaining Berbera. It will not build the so called Berbera-corridor. No plans no desire.
Things are fast changing and it's bad days for Muse administration and Djibouti as well who face mounting pressure from United States and Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is still going to focus of Djibouti being its priority port but in the mid and long term, Eritrea is slowly emerging as the preferred option.
Now there is talks of the Russians taking a base in Eritrea and that will give both Eritrea and Ethiopia the confidence since Russia as an Orthodox nation long protected the Abyssinians. Equally, it will keep Ethiopia at bay if it ever tried to claim Eritrea.
Map reveals how Russia is building up its presence across Africa
This map reveals how Russia is gaining scary global ground. And one man is spearheading the whole push.
Staff writers, Reuters
news.com.au
Russia is stepping up its political and military presence in Africa.
Already the European giant has upped its military ties to the majority of Africa’s nations, including Ethiopia, Libya, Niger and Chad. It’s upped its political influence in Zimbabwe, Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and is working on oil and gas projects from Algeria to Nigeria.
Its increasing influence comes as the United States reduces its troops across the continent by 10 per cent over the next few years to counter threats from Russia and China in other areas.
--- skip paragraphs ---
This can be seen across the continent. In Sudan, the Wagner group has reportedly won gold and diamond concessions.
Egypt has been given a $25 billion Russian loan to build its first nuclear power plant.
Over in Eritea, Russia is planning to build a logistics hub close to Chinese and US bases in Dijbouti.
In Guinea, Russia is supporting a bid by the “authoritarian and impulsive” President Alpha Conde to scrap term limits so he can seek to stay in power after 2020, similar to what President Xi Jinping did in China.
On the island of Madagascar, Russian electon consultants are reportedly involved in a tight presidential race between Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina for the top job.
The country is also yielding political influence in Zimbabwe, where Prigozhin’s consultants advised President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa on his disputed election win last year.
Prigozhin and his men are also expanding their reach into the Democratic Republic of Congo, the continent’s second-largest country and one of the world’s richest in minerals.
Publication date: 30th November 2018
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy ... e85d7a6fac
The Ethiopians do not see Berbera as a fast fix. The administration there is lazy, corrupt and sees only issues within its four corners' of Hargeisa (afarta damod). They don't see anything beyond that. Even their only single golden opportunity is wasted while they sit back, bicker and chew the Galla's $500 million annual khat.
Case point, Muse busy displacing a family from Hargeisa so he may build his lavish tribal Villa there:
Sh. Adan Siiro speaks about this issue.
Ethiopia's lack of appetite for Berbera can be said is the reason it never sent even minor regional officials from Somali Region to the "Grand Conference" in Berbera. The writing was on the wall all along. Farmajo said he closed the canal.
Listen to Farmajo say he closed the Ethiopian canal (dividing Somali Republic)
The UAE base could be abandoned if the war in Yemen comes to a quick end. The pressure is mounting on the Saudis and UAE to end it.
Why would then UAE spend millions on an isolated base? UAE is not an international superpower that needs to compete with Russia, China, France, British or the Americans.
The arrival of Russia in the region will rearrange relations once again and we know The United States is strongly behind a unified Somali Republic and is fast moving to reinstate its presence in the Somali Republic in order to deny the Russians any entry.
The UAE can finish the base and Somali Republic can always lease it to the US once again when conditions are right.
But for now we know Ethiopia is not too keen on Berbera and DP World will not give up on Doraleh.
I believe the US will pressure Djibouti and may offer sweet deals that it can't refuse including reserving its heavy debts (80% of its GDP) to China.
But for that to happen Djibouti has to play hard ball and kick the Chinese out. That will not happen so Ismail Omar Guelleh is stuck. That's why the man is not going anywhere any time soon.
He is in a tough place.
If Djibouti doesn't service its debts, the Chinese will claim Doraleh port for 99 years like Sri Lanka.
For now Somali Republic has scored this one in its favor. UAE and KSA days are limited thanks to their miscalculated steps in Jamal Khashoggi and the brutal war in Yemen where more than 85,000 children have starved to death.
One love.
